Re-balance Cycle Reminder All MyPlanIQ’s newsletters are archived here.
Regular AAC (Asset Allocation Composite), SAA and TAA portfolios are always rebalanced on the first trading day of a month. the next re-balance will be on Wednesday September 1, 2021.
As a reminder to expert users: advanced portfolios are still re-balanced based on their original re-balance schedules and they are not the same as those used in Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation (SAA and TAA) portfolios of a plan.
Style ETF Portfolio Review
In this newsletter, we continue to review portfolios listed on Advanced Strategies. We take a look at style rotation portfolio P Composite Momentum Scoring Style ETFs.
Nine style ETFs
Traditionally, the nine style ETFs have been the most popular classification of (US) stocks proposed by Morningstar:
This classification has been extended to many smart factors such as momentum, quality and low volatility (see previous week’s newsletter). However, it’s still a very useful main classification to study and invest in stocks. The key here is to look at the intersection from both size (large, mid size and small) and growth-blend-value.
Let’s first take a look at the recent returns for these styles (see 360° Market Overview):
as of 08/20/2021
Description | Symbol | 4 Weeks | 13 Weeks | 52 Weeks | Trend Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Russell Largecap Growth | IWF | -0.44% | 12.31% | 30.12% | 10.97% |
Russell Midcap Value | IWS | 0.73% | 0.37% | 42.88% | 10.45% |
Russell Largecap Index | IWB | 0.44% | 6.59% | 33.29% | 10.39% |
Russell Smallcap Value | IWN | 0.06% | -3.5% | 53.72% | 10.37% |
Russell Midcap Indedx | IWR | 0.1% | 3.41% | 39.45% | 9.81% |
Russell Largecap Value | IWD | 1.34% | 0.93% | 36.49% | 9.8% |
Russell Midcap Growth | IWP | -1.02% | 9.48% | 32.59% | 8.59% |
Russell Smallcap Index | IWM | -1.84% | -2.02% | 40.64% | 6.02% |
Russell Smallcap Growth | IWO | -3.47% | -0.26% | 28.73% | 2.19% |
Though large cap recently took up more top positions in the trend score rankings, one can see that Smallcap Value and Midcap Value have the highest 52-week returns. The large cap growth (IWF) is again ranked on top, somewhat confirming our subjective observation in June 28, 2021: Resuming Growth Trends Chaotically?. that stated it’s likely large cap growth and/or growth stocks will become favorite again in the last leg of this bull market.
The other useful feature to look at the style classified stocks is to look at the size-based equal weight index/ETFs to gauge how the general market is doing:
The above chart shows three equal weight ETFs’s returns: RSP: S&P 500 equal weight ETF (thus, equal weights among 500 largest stocks), EWMC: equal weight mid cap stocks and EWSC: equal weight small cap stocks. What we see from the above is that up to now, even though S&P 500 (SPY) made all time highs recently (as RSP too), one can see that both mid and small cap stock equal weight indexes haven’t been able to surpass their highs made on 6/8/2021. The above doesn’t show serious deterioration for both EWMC and EWSC but it does signal some caution.
Style ETF portfolios: outperforming S&P 500 index in a long term
We want to take a look at the recent underperformance of the style ETF rotation portfolios listed on Advanced Strategies. The purpose here is not to advocate these portfolios as we believe there are better alternatives such as the one we reviewed last week (August 16, 2021: Smart Factor ETFs Review). The purpose is to show even at the low of these portfolios, they are actually still outperforming S&P 500 index (SPY) in a long term.
Let’s look at the returns:
Ticker/Portfolio Name | YTD Return** |
1Yr AR | 3Yr AR | 5Yr AR | 10Yr AR | 15Yr AR | Since 1/1/2001 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Composite Momentum Scoring Style ETFs | 7.7% | 25.5% | 15.8% | 16.5% | 16.1% | 13.9% | 14.2% |
P Momentum Scoring Style ETFs and Treasuries | 7.7% | 25.5% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 9.6% |
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) | 19.4% | 33.0% | 17.9% | 17.4% | 17.0% | 10.8% | 8.2% |
VTSMX (Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Inv) | 17.9% | 34.6% | 17.6% | 17.2% | 16.8% | 10.9% | 8.7% |
Detailed chart link >>
Note P Composite Momentum Scoring Style ETFs is the portfolio that utilizes our momentum scoring strategy (similar to how we calculate trend scores in (Asset Allocation Composite (AAC) and Tactical Asset Allocation(TAA)) to rotate among the nine style ETFs and picks top most ranked ETF each month to invest. However, it also uses our market composite indicator to decide whether to invest in the intermediate Treasury index fund (VFITX or IEF) when stocks are under stress. P Momentum Scoring Style ETFs and Treasuries, on the other hand, just relies on relative momentum scores among the nine style ETFs and the intermediate Treasury fund to pick top fund each month to invest. The first portfolio represents a good improvement over the second portfolio.
What the above table and chart show us is that for the past 20 years, the two portfolios have outperformed both indexes (S&P 500 and total stock market index) in terms of overall returns. Furthermore, one can see that the two portfolios did avoid the large losses in both 2000 and 2008 bear markets.
On the other hand, we can see that the two portfolios underperformed markets by some big margins this year: 10% or more. From the above interactive chart, if you look at YTD time interval, you would find that the two portfolios peaked on 2/9/2021 and haven’t been able to recover back.
What the above examples (and numerous other examples/portfolios since we started our service 10 plus years ago) show us is that a long term performing portfolio can underperform markets for some time, in fact, the underperformance can last for quite some time. In the above example, we can see the two portfolios underperformed for the last 1, 3, 5 and 10 years.
Market Overview
Stocks were a little weak last week. Investors first reacted to Fed’s possible tapering of its loose monetary policy) with small sell off but that was not enough to sway the bullish sentiment. Furthermore, Covid-19 delta variant induced surge seemed to peak last week. Now markets seem to be back to its all time high mode, it quickly recovered.
We have no idea how long this will last and the best way to take advantage of the market behaviors is to follow our present strategies.
We reiterate our caution on the current markets and advocate the following practice:
- For strategic allocation (buy and hold) investors, ignore the current market behavior. Remember, as what we have emphasized numerous times, when you choose and commit to a strategic portfolio, you essentially know and commit that your investment horizon (or the time you need to utilize this capital) is 20 years or longer. As we pointed out, if your investments are those diversified (index) funds such as an S&P 500 index fund (VFINX, for example), you know your money is in some solid ‘business’ that eventually (20 years later) will deliver some reasonable returns. As long as you are comfortable with this thesis, you should sit tight and forget about the current gyration.
- For tactical investors, again, you have to ignore the current market noise. Furthermore, you should follow your strategy rigorously, especially in a time like this. Human emotion, both optimistic and pessimistic, and human desire, both greedy and fearful, are your worst enemies. This has been shown to be true time and time again.
Stock valuation is still extremely high by historical standard. For the moment, we believe it’s prudent to be cautious while riding on market uptrend. However how serious a correction might be, we have confidence in the US economy in the long term and thus in the stocks in aggregate. We just need to manage through interim losses carefully.
We again would like to emphasize that for any new investor and new money, the best way to step into this kind of markets is through dollar cost average (DCA), i.e. invest and/or follow a model portfolio in several phases (such as 2 or 3 months) instead of the whole sum at one shot.
Enjoy Newsletter
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- April 25, 2016: Tax Free Municipal Bond Funds & Portfolios
- April 18, 2016: Asset Class Trend Review
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- March 28, 2016: Total Return Bond ETFs Review
- March 21, 2016: Small And Large Company Stock Performance In Different Economic Expansion Cycles
- March 14, 2016: Are Tactical And Timing Strategies Losing Steam?
- March 7, 2016: Defined Maturity Bond Fund Analysis
- February 29, 2016: Smart Strategic Asset Allocation Rebalance When Market Trend Changes
- February 22, 2016: Be Cash Smart
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- February 8, 2016: Newsletter Collection Update
- February 1, 2016: Total Return Bond Fund Portfolios In A Volatile Period
- January 25, 2016: Alternative Portfolios Review
- January 18, 2016: Strategic Asset Allocation: A Cautious Outlook
- January 11, 2016: Review Of Trend Following Tactical Asset Allocation
- January 4, 2016: What Worked And Didn’t In 2015
- December 21, 2015: Distressed Assets
- December 14, 2015: High Yield Bonds And Their Correlation With Stocks
- December 7, 2015: Diversification And Global Allocation
- November 30, 2015: Investors and Speculators Combined
- November 23, 2015: Active Stock Fund Performance Consistency
- November 16, 2015: Permanent, Risk Parity And Alternative Portfolios Review
- November 9, 2015: Broad Base Core Mutual Fund Review
- November 2, 2015: Broad Base Index Core ETFs Review
- October 26, 2015: Total Return Bond Fund Review
- October 19, 2015: Advanced Portfolio Review
- October 12, 2015: What About Commodities?
- October 5, 2015: Core Satellite Portfolios In A 401k Account
- September 28, 2015: Risk Managed Strategic Asset Allocation Portfolios Revisited
- September 21, 2015: Quest For The Best Investment Strategy
- September 14, 2015: Core Satellite Portfolios In Market Turmoil
- September 7, 2015: Market Rout Creates An Opportunity to Reposition Your Portfolios
- August 31, 2015: Review of Asset Allocation Funds and Portfolios
- August 24, 2015: Market Rout And Your Portfolios
- August 17, 2015: ETF or Mutual Fund Based Portfolios
- August 10, 2015: Updated Newsletter Collection
- August 3, 2015: Slippery Asset Trends
- July 27, 2015: Performance Dispersion Among Momentum Based Portfolios
- July 20, 2015: Global Balanced Portfolio Benchmarks
- July 13, 2015: Pain in Tactical Portfolios
- July 6, 2015: Fixed Income Total Return Bond Funds In Strategic Asset Allocation Portfolios
- June 29, 2015: Core ETF Commission Free Portfolios
- June 22, 2015: Secular Asset Trends
- June 15, 2015: Giving Up Bonds?
- June 1, 2015: Summer Blues?
- May 26, 2015: Cash, Bonds and Stocks In A Rising Rate Environment
- May 18, 2015: Portfolio Update
- May 11, 2015: Pain in Fixed Income?
- May 4, 2015: The Balanced Stock and Long Term Treasury Bond Portfolios
- April 27, 2015: Long Term Treasury Bond Behavior
- April 20, 2015: 529 College Savings Plan Rebalance Policy Change
- April 13, 2015: Total Return Bond Funds As Smart Cash
- April 6, 2015: The Low Return Environment
- March 30, 2015: Brokerage Specific Core Mutual Fund Portfolios 2
- March 23, 2015: Investment Arithmetic for Long Term Investments
- March 16, 2015: Brokerage Specific Core Mutual Fund Portfolios
- March 9, 2015: Newsletter Collection Update
- March 2, 2015: Total Return Bond ETFs
- February 23, 2015: Why Is Global Tactical Asset Allocation Not Popular?
- February 16, 2015: Where Are Permanent Portfolios Going?
- February 9, 2015: How Have Asset Allocation Funds Done?
- February 2, 2015: Risk Management Everywhere
- January 26, 2015: Composite Portfolios Review
- January 19, 2015: Fixed Income Investing Review
- January 12, 2015: How Does Trend Following Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Deliver Returns
- January 5, 2015: When Forecast Fails
- December 22, 2014: Long Term Asset Returns: How Long Is Long?
- December 15, 2014: Beaten Down Assets
- December 8, 2014: Implementing Core Asset Portfolios In a Brokerage
- December 1, 2014: Two Key Issues of Investment Strategies
- November 24, 2014: Holiday Readings
- November 17, 2014: Retirement Spending Portfolios Update
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- October 13, 2014: Embrace Volatility
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- September 29, 2014: What Can We Learn From Bill Gross’ Departure From PIMCO?
- September 22, 2014: Why Total Return Bond Funds?
- September 15, 2014: Equity And Total Return Bond Fund Composite Portfolios
- September 8, 2014: Momentum Based Portfolios Review
- September 1, 2014: Risk & Diversification: Mint.com Interview
- August 25, 2014: Remember Risk
- August 18, 2014: Consistency, The Most Important Edge In Investing: Tactical Case
- August 11, 2014: What To Do In Overvalued Stock Markets
- August 4, 2014: Is This The Peak Or Correction?
- July 28, 2014: Stock Musings
- July 21, 2014: Permanent Portfolios & Four Pillar Foundation Based Framework
- July 14, 2014: Composite Portfolios Review
- July 7, 2014: Portfolio Behavior During Market Corrections
- June 30, 2014: Half Year Brokerage ETF and Mutual Fund Portfolios Review
- June 23, 2014: Newsletter Collection Update
- June 16, 2014: There Are Always Lottery Winners
- June 9, 2014: The Arithmetic of Investment Mistakes
- June 2, 2014: Tips On Portfolio Rebalance
- May 26, 2014: In Praise Of Low Cost Core Asset Class Based Portfolios
- May 19, 2014: Consistency, The Most Important Edge In Investing: Strategic Case
- May 12, 2014: How To Handle An Elevated Overvalued Market
- May 5, 2014: Asset Allocation Funds Review
- April 28, 2014: Now The Economy Backs To The ‘Old Normal’, Should Our Investments Too?
- April 21, 2014: Total Return Bond Investing In The Current Market Environment