June 2013 July 2013 Comments Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity expanded at a modest pace during the first half of the year. Shades […]
So now the question is how high can it go? Just like every other market, bond yields tend to overshoot, and we think 3% is the upper bound in the short-term. However, we believe it will settle back closer to 250 bps by the end of the year.For more information about Advisor Perspectives services, click on the advertisement below:
We are constructive on interest rate risks in many developed and emerging economies as global central banks reinforce accommodative monetary policy. We favor the U.S. dollar versus the Japanese yen, the Euro and other developed market currencies. Credit spreads should narrow from current levels as the markets gain confidence and the Treasury market s…
Calm largely returned to the bond market in July following a bout of turbulence in June. Volatility declined across the broad spectrum of fixed income assets, with interest rates and credit spreads falling from their highs, in some cases dramatically. Flows have also turned positive in many market segments, particularly for high yield and bank loan s…
At the end of April, I pointed out that the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced it would be making some significant revisions to the way it calculates Gross Domestic Product on July 31. It will revise economic growth for all years going back to 1929. This change is somewhat controversial in that it is expected to a…
The markets have placed too much emphasis on the Fed tapering. Whether policymakers decide to slow the rate of asset purchases in September or December shouldn’t matter all that much. The Fed’s decision will be data-dependent. Note that it’s not the figures themselves that matter. Rather, it’s what the data imply for the overa…
Last week I asked myself the obligatory question, “Did I make a bad trading decision by targeting mid-July through mid-August (with the date specific of July 19th) as the timing point for the first meaningful decline of the year?” The reason for said question was that every time the S&P500 (SPX/1691.65) sold off last week, buyers show…
The dominant story during the quarter was the reaction of investors to the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) hints of “tapering” the third round of their quantitative easing program. Such talk spooked both equity and fixed income markets in the U.S. and abroad, causing correlations across asset classes to move closer to one during the las…
Given recent strong performance and yields hovering at historic lows, a current topic of debate has been whether the high yield bond market has become an asset bubble and how much of a risk is the potential end to the Federal Reserve’s accommodative monetary policy to high yield investors. While we at Rainier acknowledge there are current risks…
While the stock market has enjoyed a recent rally, some investors are experiencing some “weakness in the knees” as they continue to ascend the climb. These new all-time highs in the market compound the problem for some investors as they suffer from the recency effect, or the not-too-distant memory of significant market losses. For more i…
Investors keeping socking money into U.S. Equities while outflows from bond mutual funds continue. Read this investor insight by TrimTabs Asset Management to learn more about the recent fund flows and what other activity may be foretelling.
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The Blip John Mauldin July 30, 2013 This week’s Outside the Box does not make me feel good, but author Benjamin Wallace-Wells does explain Robert Gordon’s views better than anyone I have seen. (And of course the whole point of Outside the Box is to yank us out of our comfort zones from…
I have a friend who is savvy about the markets despite being young. He controls his parents’ accounts, but not fully, likely because of his age. He called me yesterday to tell me his parents are disappointed with their recent … Continue reading →<...Feeling Left Behind
The US Congress is nearing a compromise on the issue of student loan interest rates. Apparently loan rates will be changed from fixed to floating with an overall cap (see story). While rates are important, there is a much bigger issue at hand. Now with the help of some great data from Barclays Research let’s take a quick look at where we stand with t…
By Alex Jordon:
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) has been the stalwart global producer for semiconductor chips for decades. In that time period, the company has been responsible for technology brea…
Here is a quick update on India’s ongoing financial stress. Capital outflows from stocks over the past couple of months reached a post-2008 high, prompting Goldman to downgrade the nation’s equity market.Bloomberg: – Foreigners sold a net $2 billion of domestic debt last month through July 30, extending the record $5.4 billion withdrawal in June. The…
By Jacob Steinberg:
On Tuesday, many people woke up to the news that Apple (AAPL) is planning to come up with a new iPhone, which will be cheaper than the regular iPhone model. Can Apple actually kill No…
By Feria Investor:
Tuesday July 30th, before the bell, Coach (COH) delivered an apparently
Interesting data here from Merrill Lynch Research who note that institutional clients and hedge funds have been net sellers of equities in the last 5 weeks while private clients (retail investors) are still net buyers: “Last week, during which the S&P climbed 0.7% to another new all-time high of 1692, BofAML clients were net sellers […]
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After many online posts, including my two on Seeking Alpha here and
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