NYSE Margin Debt Approaches All-Time High

Disaggregation of credit is the understanding that there are good forms of credit and bad forms of credit.  A good form of credit is something like a standard business loan in which a company obtains access to a line of credit in order to make investments in the firm.  It pays employees, invests in equipment, etc.  This form of credit, […]

In Which Richard Russell Feels Sorry for the Bears….

What can you say about a market where one of the biggest permabears of the last 5 years is now feeling sorry for the bears?  I’ve tracked Russell’s work very closely over the years and I have to start wondering about the contrarian side of the cyclical view when I start reading commentary like this (via Russell’s Dow Theory Letters…

Inherited IRA Rules: What You Need To Know

Many people who inherit IRAs are unfamiliar with the rules that apply to them. My article for Forbes magazine, “Five Rules For Inherited IRAs,” gives a broad overview of the subject. In this post I answer questions from two readers with concerns that affect other people, too.

Luck Be a Lady Tonight

randomness means that even the best process will include periods of poor performance and sleepless nights. This kind of uncertainty is hardly “a joy to follow.” We may want luck to be a lady tonight and every night — but it ain’t gonna happen.

3 Stocks You Shouldn’t ‘Sell In May’

By Ian Wyatt:

In theory, today is the last day you should buy stocks for a while.

Tomorrow is the first day of May, kicking off the worst six months on the investment calendar. You should sell all your stocks now and go into hibernation until November – or “

What Are The Causes Of The ‘Sell In May’ Seasonal Market Phenomenon?

By Nate Sterling:

The “sell in May” seasonal pattern, as famously celebrated by the Stock Trader’s Almanac and academic research papers such as Sandro Andrade et al.’s “Sell in May and go away just won’t go away” and Bouman and Jacobsen’s “The Halloween indica…

Charts of the Day

Four months into 2013, the S&P 500 Index TR (including dividends) is up 12.74%. A chart of sector returns (price only, not including dividends) is below. It seems to be beyond S&P to provide the sector data with dividends unfortunately…… Below, we …

Bull Market Predicted By GDP Growth?

By Prasad Capital Management:

Markets recently reacted well to GDP growth numbers — over the last year, real GDP increased by 2%. Looked at over the past 5 years, however, the annual increase in real GDP is a miserable 0.7%.

Are the recent numbers implying a trend upward…

Embry – This May Create A Massive Upside Breakout In Gold

Today John Embry asked the question, why should gold and silver investors worry? He then told King World News about a key situation which may create a massive upside breakout in gold. Embry also commented on the massive global physical demand for the metals. Below is what Embry, who is chief investment strategist at Sprott Asset Management, had to…

Secular Bull and Bear Markets

May 01, 2013 Doug Short  Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? Without crystal ball, we simply don’t know. One thing we can do is examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of possibilities. An obvious feature of this inflation-adjusted is the pattern of long-ter…

Two Measures of Inflation: New Update

Apr 30, 2013 Doug Short  Note from dshort: I’ve updated the accompanying charts with the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures price index from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, released yesterday. The annualized rate of change is calculated to two decimal places for more precision in the side-by-side comparison with the Consumer …