Japan moves from Paul Krugman’s liquidity trap to Haruhiko Kuroda’s "indefinite QE" trap

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield is hovering around 0.5%, an all-time low.Clearly this is the result of the Bank of Japan’s unprecedented securities purchases via the ongoing quantitative easing (QE) program that was accelerated last year.BoJ’s holdings of Japanese government securities (source BOJ) While a number of economists such as Paul…

3 Ways China Can Build a Deep Capital Market

Now that Beijing’s crackdown on corruption is under way, investors should focus on the leadership’s next big priority: developing a deep fixed-income market.

Putin Calls for Eastern Ukraine Statehood

Putin threw fat into the Ukrainian fire today by calling for Talks on Eastern Ukraine Statehood.The question at hand is” What precisely does Putin mean by “statehood” ?Russian President Vladimir Putin called on Sunday for immediate talks on the “statehood” of southern and eastern Ukraine, although his spokesman said this did not mean Moscow now endor…

Madison Weekly Market Wrap 1.14

This week’s Market Wrap is now available at the link below. A preview follows. Madison Weekly Market Wrap 1.14 At the big Wall Street firms and the big money management houses, pension funds and insurance companies they serve, the two … Continue reading →

World Markets Weekend Update: The Rally Moderates

August 31st, 2014 Doug Short The broad rally of world indexes on my watch eased off the accelerator last week. Five of the eight posted gains, down from all eight for the two previous weeks. France’s CAC 40 was the hands-down winner with a 3.02% advance, more than double the runner-up Eurozone neighboring index, Germany’s DAX, which rose 1.40%. In…

More Mindless Sanctions? Merkel a Liar or a Fool?

As the tide in the Ukraine civil war turns, the EU threatens Russia with more mindless sanctions.Bloomberg reports EU Vows More Russia Sanctions If War in Ukraine Worsens. European Union leaders agreed to impose tougher sanctions on Russia, possibly targeting energy and finance, if the war in Ukraine worsens.Leaders early today gave the European Comm…

Using Mean Reversion and Momentum for Possible Advantage

One of the challenges of fundamental investing is trying to find decent ideas that are off the radar. There are a number of ways to try to do that by looking at: smaller foreign companies companies that have made some significant losses. companies where the relative performance is so awful that no manager benchmarked to an […]

What I Look For in a Good Investment

If you’ve been investing very long, you no doubt understand the importance of having a solid system in place. By “system” I’m not referring to a secret black box or to technical trading rules, though both can be valid approaches in the right hands.  I am speaking far more broadly.  Whether you are a value [……

Obamacare Fine Print: Beware the Medicaid and Medi-Cal Clawbacks and Liens

Obamacare greatly expanded Medicaid coverage, but there is a hidden gotcha that may come back and haunt your heirs for benefits you receive from age 55-64.This is not new news, but few read and understand the “fine print”.In a warning about the “fine print” and in response to Moral Dilemma: Should a Libertarian Who Does Not Need Food Stamps, but Qual…

Moving Averages: Month-End Update

August 30th, 2014 Doug Short Valid until the market close on September 30, 2014 The S&P 500 closed August with a monthly gain of 3.77%. All three S&P 500 MAs and four of the five the Ivy Portfolio ETF MAs are signaling “Invested”. More…

Weekly Market Summary

August 30th, 2014 Urban Carmel The 2Q earnings season is over. Per Fact Set, earnings grew at 7.7% yoy and sales grew 4.5%. These are the strongest results in several years and, remarkably, they are coming when the bull market is already more than 5 years old. The sales growth rate was particularly strong. Analysts had expected 3.7% in 2Q. The co…

Vehicle Miles Driven: A Structural Change in Our Driving Behavior

August 30th, 2014 Doug Short The Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Commission has released the latest report on Traffic Volume Trends, data through June. Travel on all roads and streets changed by 1.4% (3.7 billion vehicle miles) for June 2014 as compared with June 2013. The less volatile 12-month moving average is up 0.13% month-ove…

Markets signaling return of economic weakness in China

In addition to property market challenges and the unexpected slowdown in manufacturing expansion, we continue to see markets signaling a significant loss of momentum in China’s economic growth. Earlier in the year the country’s economic trajectory was quite uncertain. This was followed by a strong pickup in manufacturing activity early this summ…