We review several alternative portfolios and discuss their prospects in 2016.
We are cautious on Strategic Asset Allocation Portfolios. With stocks still being at a high valuation, we believe these portfolios might suffer from a big loss before they can recover and grow again. We discuss long term valuations and forecasts.
2015 is one of the four years since 1970 that no one asset among stocks, REITs, gold and bonds derived more than 10% return. It is a trendless, whipsaw year that is hard for any trend following asset allocation portfolios.
2015 is a challenging year for both global strategic allocation portfolios as well as tactical portfolios.