Summer Seasonality And Portfolio Management
Now that we are approaching to June, summer will soon be upon us. MyPlanIQ has maintained a summer seasonality portfolio (see STS Seasonal Timing Using VFINX Total Return Bond Fund As Cash listed on Advanced Strategies page). This portfolio is based on an adage ‘sell in May and go away’. It has consistently demonstrated this so called seasonality (sometimes also referred as The Halloween Indicator ). In this newsletter, we revisit this stock market anomaly and discuss its use in portfolio management.
The consistency of summer seasonality
To recap, the strategy used in STS Seasonal Timing Using VFINX Total Return Bond Fund As Cash uses the following rules:
- Exit from S&P 500 index fund (Vanguard 500 index fund VFINX) and go to cash or to enhance returns, go to a total return bond fund portfolio such as Schwab Total Return Bond: after April 20 arrives, it does not exit the stock market until MACD triggers its next sell signal. See MACD Strategy for its explanation.
- Entry to S&P 500 index fund: after October 16 arrives, it does not enter the stock market until MACD triggers its next buy signal.
We have discussed the returns of the two portfolios (one uses cash and the other uses a total return bond fund portfolio in May 9, 2016: Boost Your Dull Summer Investments. Let’s look at its latest performance:
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