April 8, 2013: First Quarter Review: Trends Are In Place But Can They Sustain?

by | Apr 9, 2013 | Asset-Allocation, Economy, Feature, Headline, Inv, Investments, IRA, Markets, Mutual-Funds, newsletter, Portfolios | 0 comments

TAA Selections:
We are skeptical whether the current trends can continue. However, as what we stated many many times, the key factor to succeed is to discard personal emotional hunches and stick to a systematic strategy. For now, that is what we should remind ourselves to do. 

Market Overview

Another not insignificant possible trend turning event is that last week, long term Treasury bonds exhibited a strong jump and now it is ranked just below US stocks. On the other hand, emerging market stocks and commodities, two of the 5 major risk assets are ranked below cash in the  major asset trend ranking table on Asset Trends & Correlations (for other detailed ranking, see 360° Market Overview).  All of these did not change substantially on our re-balance today. However, it is definitely worth watching. 

We again copy our position statements (from previous newsletters): 

Our position has not changed: We still maintain our cautious attitude to the recent stock market strength. Again, we have not seen any meaningful or substantial structural change in the U.S., European and emerging market economies. However, we will let markets sort this out and will try to take advantage over its irrational behavior if it is possible. 

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