US Dollar or China behind US slowdown?

by | Jan 25, 2016 | Currency, Economy, Financial-Blogs

From Torsten Sløk, Ph.D.: In some of my client conversations I have debates as if we are already in a global recession. Yes, ISM below 50 is getting a lot of attention but looking at the manufacturing sectors in Europe and Japan shows a very different picture, see chart below. The fact that Japan and…

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Uneven Recovery, Noise & Ignorance: Why People Missed the Recovery

by | Nov 16, 2015 | Currency, Economy, Financial-Blogs, Inflation, Politics

There has been a steady drumbeat of dissatisfaction about the post-credit-crisis recovery. No matter how much the economy improves, a good number of people insist it hasn’t. Now, in the midst of the political silly season, it has intensified as candidates pander to voters. This is a subject near and dear to me (see this, this, this, this, this, andthis),…Read More

E.M.s Want Cake & Eat It Too

by | Oct 10, 2015 | Currency, Emerging Markets, Markets

Since the end of 2010, the emerging markets (E.M.) have gotten absolutely obliterated (MSCI Emerging Markets index –25%) compared to a meteoric rise in U.S. stocks (S&P 500 index +60%) over the same period. Slowing global growth, especially with resource-hungry China going on a crash diet, has caused commodity-exporting emerging markets like Brazil to suffer economic […]

Commodities Return to the 1990s

by | Oct 1, 2015 | Currency, Economy, Financial-Blogs, Markets

    The chart above is the Bloomberg Commodity Index. It consists of baskets of common commodities, including energy, metals, foodstuffs, softs and precious metals. After a fairly flat period in the 1990s, the index leapt upward beginning in the early 2000s. The context explains the jump: High inflation, weak dollar and low interest rates….Read More

The Art of Catching Falling Knives

by | Aug 22, 2015 | Currency, Markets

“In the middle of every difficulty lies an opportunity.”  ~Albert Einstein It was a painful week for bullish investors in the stock market as evidenced by the -1,018 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, equivalent to approximately a -6% decline. The S&P 500 index did not fare any better, and the loss for […]