S&P 500: A Solid ‘Business’ In A Volatile Time
Even though we advocate tactical asset allocation like our Asset Allocation Composite (AAC), we are also a firm believer in buying and holding stocks or equities of good businesses, provided that their values have a potential to appreciate at a rate above inflation (thus preserving or increasing purchase power at a minimum) and also are less likely to incur significant interim loss. In today’s newsletter, we want to revisit a concept we proposed several years ago on why an index fund such as SPY or VFINX or S&P 500 index fund represents a solid business at the time their price is approaching to some reasonable levels to purchase.
I Bonds Update
Before we go on to our main topic, we want to update on I Bonds that were mentioned in our previous newsletter. At the time of publishing, we estimated that the I bond’s interest rate for the next six months if you purchase after October would be around 6% as the CPI of September was not available by then. We now know that the CPI number of September is 296.808 from this table, so the estimated interest rate would be
0+2*(September2022-March2022)/March2022=0+2*(296.808-287.504)/287.504=0.0647 or 6.47%
The above is based on the estimated fixed rate as 0. Its real value will only be known by November. Many believe that the fixed rate might be higher than 0% (up to 1%?) and thus our best guess would be less than 8%. At any rate, it’s probably still much lower than 9.62% that you’ll get if you buy the I Bond this month.
S&P 500: A Solid business revisited
Recently, many stock prices have declined substantially. In fact some high growth stocks have seen their prices declined by more than 70%. For example, ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) that invests in many high growth tech stocks has seen its price dropped more than 78% from its all time high (or -62% year to date). S&P 500 also dropped around 20% year to date.
As we mentioned in our previous newsletters, we estimate that S&P500 price is now reaching a level that’s on par with bonds in terms of its risk premium. Though it’s still not that cheap, but it does get cheaper. So naturally, it’s a good time to start to ponder more on what kinds of businesses one can safely buy and keep for a long term, at least for your strategic portion of the portfolio.
In April 1, 2019: S&P 500 As A Business, we praised that S&P 500 index fund, viewed as a ‘conglomerate’ business, is a very solid business. To recap, it has the following
- Never lost money in any single year since 1871
- Has grown its earnings at 6% above inflation annually (or 9%-10% annually in nominal term). This is significant as it not only preserves your purchase power, it also increases your wealth at some non trivial rate (your real purchase power is roughly doubled every 12 years).
- It’s very unlikely to be bankrupt as the revenue of this ‘business’ represents more than half of the US GDP. So unless the US as a nation experiences a huge upheaval, this is perhaps one of the safest businesses in the world.
- It’s less affected by many individual companies’ business as it’s so diversified.
- Its annual rebalance (the index rebalance) means this business is regularly restructured. In fact, such a rebalance has proved to be very effective as it prunes bad business and promotes good businesses.
At any rate, if you want to get a reasonable return without incurring too much risk such as misreading a company’s business prospect (which can be extremely damaging to your investments if you buy into some ‘bad’ stocks in some significant capital allocation), we see S&P 500 index funds like VFINX, SPY or VOO are safe alternatives.
The latest update on this ‘business’:
The latest 12 trailing month earnings at the end of second quarter was still very high, $192.58 per share. At the moment, S&P index is at 3797, that would translates to earnings yield 5%, higher than 10 year Treasury yield 4.2%. On the other hand, the latest FactSet’s analyst estimate for Q3 this year is a tad higher than $192 (around $200), making the earnings yield still around 5%, not that bad.
However, we want to point out that it’s likely that S&P 500 earnings estimate is still way too high as analysts probably haven’t been able to fully factor in the high interest impact (higher borrowing cost and slower demand). It’s possible that the earnings in the coming quarters might come down dramatically.
Other high quality ‘conglomerate’ funds
There are a few of other funds that are worth mentioning and probably better than or similar to S&P 500. We have discussed iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF QUAL before (see July 15, 2019: Quality Stock Factor ETFs). This ETF selects companies that have had high quality and consistent earnings growth from some large and mid cap stocks. It’s an index fund so its selection is governed by a well formulated mechanical algorithm, free from human emotional and subjective opinions. As most of our readers know, we are a firm believer in well formulated mechanical method.
Currently, QUAL holds about 128 stocks. It’s diversified enough.
VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF MOAT is another one that we believe worth holding. Strictly speaking, MOAT is not a passive index fund as Morningstar relies on their analysts to assign MOAT rating to a stock. Morningstar defines Moat as follows:
The Morningstar Economic Moat Rating represents a company’s sustainable competitive advantage. A company with an economic moat can fend off competition and earn high returns on capital for many years to come.
Morningstar has identified five sources of moat. Switching costs are those obstacles that keep customers from changing from one product to another. The network effect occurs when the value of a good or service increases for both new and existing users as more people use that good or service. Intangible assets are things such as patents, government licenses, and brand identity that keep competitors at bay. A company with a cost advantage can produce goods or services at a lower cost, allowing them to undercut their competitors or achieve higher profitability. Efficient scale benefits companies operating in a market that only supports one or a few competitors, limiting rivalry.
A company whose competitive advantages we expect to last more than 20 years has a wide moat; one that can fend off their rivals for 10 years has a narrow moat; while a firm with either no advantage or one that we think will quickly dissipate has no moat.
The moat concept for a business or a stock was made famous because it’s one of the key investment tenets for Warren Buffett. Simply put, a business with moat is durable enough to sustain for a long period of profitable time.
Currently, MOAT holds about 48 stocks.
We like MOAT even though Morningstar didn’t explicitly state its underlying formula and its moat rating is likely to be subjective. However, we do believe Morningstar does have an internal process for their analysts to follow in this rating.
The other non-passive (or active) ETF is Capital Group Core Equity ETF (CGUS). Capital Group is well known for its long running mutual funds that can only be accessed by financial advisors. We’ll devote a future newsletter on their active ETFs in more details.
The latest performance: (as of 10/24/2022)
|1Yr AR||3Yr AR||5Yr AR||10Yr AR|
|QUAL (iShares Edge MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF)||-24.1%||-20.9%||6.9%||8.3%|
|MOAT (Market Vectors Mstar Wide Moat ETF)||-17.9%||-17.3%||8.1%||10.3%||12.4%|
|SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF)||-19.0%||-14.8%||10.0%||10.1%||12.2%|
Returns since 2/23/2022 when CGUS has data:
So MOAT has done better but all of the ETFs are comparable. On the other hand, for the past 5 years or so, QUAL has done much worse than the others. Notice that to purchase properties like stocks for a long term, you should be glad to scoop up those that have fallen harder, so long as you believe they have similar or better return potentials.
For those who are more adventurous, you can also read our June 7, 2021: “Good” S&P Sectors to consider to purchase some of those S&P sector funds like healthcare XLV or technology XLK when stocks reach a cheap enough level.
On the other hand, to make things simple, we recommend S&P 500 as it’s very diversified (500 stocks) and actually has been proven to be extremely hard to beat by many other funds! Owning such a diversified and solid ‘conglomerate’ instead of picking some stocks on your own, you should be able to sleep better at night with high likelihood to outperform!
As of last Friday, 20% of f S&P 500 companies had reported their Q3 earnings (see FactSet ). The blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 1.5% which is worse than 2.8% expected on September 30, 2022. So we can see actual earnings are likely to come down more than what analysts have expected. Factors that can seriously affect corporate earnings include the already risen interest rates (that might still take some time to make a full impact) and persistent high inflation. Whether the economy will have a ‘soft landing’, or a slower yet non-recessionary growth with inflation being under control, is anyone’s guess. For the past year, many have consistently under estimated the stickiness of high inflation — it’s actually very understandable as the last high inflation period (80s) was more than 40 years ago. Many so called bond experts and economists haven’t really had real experience in this kind of periods.
It’s very likely markets (stocks and bonds) have reached bottoms in this cycle. However, as always, we don’t rely on forecast and will respond based on our strategies.
As always, we stay the course with our strategies and reiterate the following:
- For strategic allocation (buy and hold) investors, ignore the current market behavior. Remember, as what we have emphasized numerous times, when you choose and commit to a strategic portfolio, you essentially know and commit that your investment horizon (or the time you need to utilize this capital) is 20 years or preferably much longer given the current high valuation. As we pointed out, if your investments are those diversified (index) funds such as an S&P 500 index fund (VFINX, for example), you know your money is in some solid ‘business’ that eventually (20 years later and preferably many more years later) will deliver some reasonable returns. As long as you are comfortable with this thesis, you should sit tight and forget about the current gyration.
- For tactical investors, again, you have to ignore the current market noise. Furthermore, you should follow your strategy rigorously, especially in a time like this. Human emotion, both optimistic and pessimistic, and human desire, both greedy and fearful, are your worst enemies. This has been shown to be true time and time again.
Stock valuation has dropped and now valuation is becoming less hostile. However, it is still not cheap by historical standard. For the moment, we believe it’s prudent to be extra cautious. However how serious a correction might be, we have confidence in the US economy in the long term and thus in the stocks in aggregate. We just need to manage through interim losses carefully.
We again would like to emphasize that for any new investor and new money, the best way to step into this kind of markets is through dollar cost average (DCA), i.e. invest and/or follow a model portfolio in several phases (such as 2 or 3 months) instead of the whole sum at one shot.
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–Thanks to those who have already contributed — we appreciate it.
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- June 6, 2022: Sector Rotation In A Rising Rate Environment
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- February 28, 2022: Asset Allocation Fund Review
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- February 1, 2022: Foreign Stocks And Global Asset Allocation
- January 18, 2022: Steady And Consistency Win In The Long Term
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- November 22, 2021: The ‘Best’ Balanced Fund Revisited
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- October 4, 2021: Asset Trends, Market Internals And Inflation Implication
- September 27, 2021: Newsletter Collection Update
- September 20, 2021: Benchmarking MyPlanIQ Fixed Income Bond Portfolios
- September 13, 2021: Benchmarking MyPlanIQ Tactical Portfolios
- August 30, 2021: Invest And Speculate: A Sensible Alternative To Buy And Hold
- August 23, 2021: Style ETF Portfolio Review
- August 16, 2021: Smart Factor ETFs Review
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- June 7, 2021: “Good” S&P Sectors
- May 17, 2021: Total Return Bond ETFs Review
- May 10, 2021: Financial Independence & Early Retirement
- May 3, 2021: Inflation, Sub Zero Interest Rate …
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- April 19, 2021: New And Old Useful Features
- April 12, 2021: Risk Parity Funds In Current Environment
- April 5, 2021: DoubleLine Shiller CAPE 10 Based Funds Update
- March 29, 2021: International Stocks vs. US Stocks
- March 22, 2021: Ultra Short Term Bond ETF Portfolio As A Money Market Fund
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- March 1, 2021: Average 20% Annual Returns: The Upper Bound Of Stock Investments?!
- February 22, 2021: Rising Bond Yields And Current Stock Trends
- February 8, 2021: Total Return Bond ETFs Review
- February 1, 2021: REITs And Major Asset Trends
- January 25, 2021: Industry ETFs And ARK ETFs Portfolios
- January 11, 2021: Smart Cash Management: Can I Just Withdraw From My Bond Portfolio?
- January 4, 2021: Our Investment Philosophy For 2021 And Beyond
- December 14, 2020: Style and Factor ETFs Portfolio Reviews
- December 7, 2020: A Really Long Term (30 Years) Stock Returns
- November 30, 2020: Higher Return Portfolios: Part 2
- November 16, 2020: Higher Return Portfolios
- November 9, 2020: Fixed Income Funds Update
- November 2, 2020: Polls Are Useless vs. This Investment Strategy Doesn’t Work!
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- October 19, 2020: REIT Indexes As Businesses
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- September 21, 2020: Boring Utility Stocks Are Excellent Long Term Winners
- September 14, 2020: Surprised, Active Fixed Income Investors Have Done Better Than Stock Investors For The Last 20 Years!
- August 31, 2020: Investing In An Ultra-Low Return Environment
- August 24, 2020: Target Maturity Bond ETFs For Short Term Cash
- August 17, 2020: Newsletter Collection Update
- August 10, 2020: Fixed Income In A Speculative Era
- August 3, 2020: Sound Investment Strategies
- July 27, 2020: Total Return Bond Funds Update
- July 20, 2020: Divergence Between Value And Growth Stocks Everywhere
- July 13, 2020: Short Term Cash, Treasury Bills, CDs And Future Fixed Income
- July 6, 2020: Bond ETFs vs. Bond Mutual Funds
- June 29, 2020: Industry Sector ETF Rotation With Composite Momentum
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- June 15, 2020: Advanced Minimum Equity Portfolios
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- May 18, 2020: Core Satellite Portfolios In The Current Pandemic
- May 11, 2020: Asset Trends Review
- May 4, 2020: The Real, Sensible And Wise Warren Buffett
- April 27, 2020: Total Return Bond Funds & Portfolios
- April 20, 2020: Multi-Factor ETFs and Rotation
- April 13, 2020: A Closer Look At 401(k) Investment Portfolios
- April 6, 2020: Long Term Stock Market Timing Since 1871 Revisited
- March 30, 2020: How Did Bond ETFs And Mutual Funds Fare In The Current Crisis?
- March 23, 2020: Chaos And Hope
- March 16, 2020: A Live Lesson
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- February 24, 2020: Long Term Stock Valuation Based Investment Strategies
- February 10, 2020: Update On Short Term Cash, Treasury Bills and Brokered CDs
- February 3, 2020: Investment Landscape For Retirees And Would-be Retirees: Stocks
- January 27, 2020: Investment Landscape For Retirees And Would-be Retirees: Fixed Income
- January 13, 2020: Portfolio Performance: A Walk In The Past II
- January 6, 2020: Asset Outlook and Portfolio Strategies
- December 16, 2019: Q&As On Our Services
- December 9, 2019: Portfolio Constructions For Advanced Users
- December 2, 2019: Newsletter Collection Update
- November 25, 2019: Core ETFs or Core Mutual Funds Portfolios
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- October 28, 2019: Multi-factor ETFs vs. Equal Weight Multi-Factor Portfolios
- October 21, 2019: Multi-factor ETFs: Value And Momentum
- October 14, 2019: Low Volatility Factor ETFs
- October 7, 2019: Zero Commission Era Has Arrived, Is It Really That Good?
- September 30, 2019: Boosting Bond ETF Portfolio’s Return With Muni Bond ETFs
- September 23, 2019: Value ETFs
- September 16, 2019: Factor ETFs
- September 9, 2019: Momentum Factor Stock ETFs
- August 26, 2019: Employer 401k Match: Yet Another Free Lunch Not To Be Missed
- August 19, 2019: PIMCO Income Fund and Other Total Return Bond Funds Update
- August 12, 2019: Aggressive Fixed Income Portfolios?
- August 5, 2019: Long Term Investment Strategies And Short Term Market Noises
- July 29, 2019: Fixed Income Portfolios In A Lower Yield Environment
- July 22, 2019: Core Satellite Portfolios Balance Fluctuation
- July 15, 2019: Quality Stock Factor ETFs
- July 8, 2019: Surprise! Brokerages Make Most From Your Cash, Not Commissions
- July 1, 2019: Utilities Sector Review
- June 24, 2019: Asset Allocation Funds Review
- June 17, 2019: Latest Performance Comparison Among Several Advanced Strategies
- June 10, 2019: Money Market And Ultra Short Term Bond Funds
- June 3, 2019: What We Can Learn From The Seasonality Strategy
- May 20, 2019: Morningstar Portfolio Manager Awards
- May 13, 2019: Total Return Bond ETFs Review
- May 6, 2019: Global Allocation Revisited
- April 29, 2019: Asset Trend Review
- April 22, 2019: The Current State Of Fixed Income
- April 15, 2019: The Importance Of Fixed Income Returns For Retirement Spending
- April 8, 2019: Newsletter Collection Update
- April 1, 2019: S&P 500 As A Business
- March 25, 2019: Health Care Sector Review
- March 18, 2019: The Risk Of Stock Investing
- March 11, 2019: Consumer Staples Sector Review
- March 4, 2019: Global Stock Valuation Update
- February 25, 2019: ‘Bad’ Tactical Strategy
- February 11, 2019: “Best” Balanced Fund And Portfolios Revisited
- February 4, 2019: Cash And Money Market Funds: Interests And Safety
- January 28, 2019: Fixed Income Review
- January 14, 2019: Tactical Asset Allocation Portfolio Review
- January 7, 2019: Global Strategic Asset Allocation Portfolio Review
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- December 3, 2018: Conservative Core Satellite Portfolio
- November 26, 2018: Allocation Mutual Fund Review
- November 19, 2018: Is The Recent Downtrend Sustainable?
- November 12, 2018: The Staggering Low Interest Rates From Big Banks
- November 5, 2018: The ‘Right’ Or ‘Wrong’ Decision
- October 29, 2018: Taxable Total Return Bond Plus Muni Bond Fund Based Portfolios
- October 22, 2018: DoubleLine Shiller CAPE 10 Based Fund Review
- October 15, 2018: Newsletter Collection Update
- October 8, 2018: Asset Trend Review
- October 1, 2018: Taxable vs. Tax Exempt High Yield Bonds
- September 24, 2018: High Yield Bonds In A Rising Rate Environment
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- August 20, 2018: How Momentum Investing Stacks Up?
- August 13, 2018: Total Return Bond ETF
- August 6, 2018: Fidelity Zero-Fee Index Funds
- July 30, 2018: Tax Efficient Portfolios
- July 23, 2018: Municipal Bond Funds And Portfolios
- July 16, 2018: A Guide To Conservative Portfolios
- July 9, 2018: Conservative Allocation Mutual Funds Based Portfolios
- July 2, 2018: Small Cap Stocks For The Long Term
- June 25, 2018: What Can We Learn From GE’s Removal From Dow Jones Index?
- June 18, 2018: The ‘Best’ Balanced Portfolio Continues To Excel
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- June 4, 2018: Action Plan: Risk Review For Investments
- May 21, 2018: Rising Rates, Consumer Staples And Stock Index
- May 14, 2018: Newsletter Collection Update
- May 7, 2018: Money Market Fund Taxonomy
- April 30, 2018: Momentum Investing Review
- April 23, 2018: Commodities In Current Environment
- April 16, 2018: Municipal Bonds As A Fixed Income Asset Class
- April 9, 2018: Exponential Or Compounding Nature In Investing
- April 2, 2018: Inside Of The Stock Chaos
- March 26, 2018: Total Return Bond Update
- March 19, 2018: Treasury Bills vs. Brokered CDs
- March 12, 2018: Defensive Conservative Portfolio Review
- March 5, 2018: Warren Buffett’s Advices
- February 26, 2018: Pros And Cons of Strategic And Tactical Portfolios In 2018
- February 12, 2018: Trend Review
- February 5, 2018: Market Selloff And Long Term Investing
- January 29, 2018: The New Addition To Our Total Return Bond Fund Candidates
- January 22, 2018: Where Are Bonds Heading?
- January 15, 2018: Tactical Portfolios Review
- January 8, 2018: Strategic Portfolios Review
- December 18, 2017: Record Highs And Risk
- December 11, 2017: Cash Return And Interest Rate Update
- December 4, 2017: Mutual Fund Star Ratings: Are They Useful?
- November 20, 2017: Thankful And Mindful
- November 13, 2017: Is This A Good Time For Retirees Or Would Be Retirees?
- November 6, 2017: Newsletter Collection Update
- October 30, 2017: Rising Interest Rates
- October 23, 2017: A Primer For Portfolios
- October 16, 2017: REITs As An Asset Class
- October 9, 2017: Conservative Portfolios Revisited
- October 2, 2017: The Role of Short Term Bond Funds
- September 25, 2017: Fees In Cash Investments
- September 18, 2017: Conservative Portfolios Review
- September 11, 2017: International Diversification Effect
- September 4, 2017: Invest And Speculate Revisited
- August 28, 2017: Total Return Bond Fund Portfolios: Where Do They Fit?
- August 21, 2017: Portfolio Performance: A Walk In The Past
- August 14, 2017: Fidelity Commission Free ETFs Update
- August 7, 2017: I Didn’t Learn Anything — Mistake vs. Temporary Underperformance
- July 31, 2017: Asset Classes And Fund Choices: A Primer
- July 24, 2017: Total Return Bond Fund Portfolios And Cash
- July 17, 2017: Long Term Stock Holding Periods For Retirement
- July 10, 2017: Half Year Asset Trend Review
- June 26, 2017: How To Beat The Best Balanced Allocation Fund
- June 19, 2017: Newsletter Collection Update
- June 12, 2017: A Mixed Bag Performance of Momentum Investing
- June 5, 2017: How To Start A New Portfolio
- May 29, 2017: Alternative Assets And Their Role In Portfolios
- May 22, 2017: Summer Seasonality And Portfolio Management
- May 15, 2017: Cash: Banking Or Investing?
- May 8, 2017: Holding Period of Long Term Timing Portfolios
- May 1, 2017: Debate on Risk vs. Volatility
- April 24, 2017: The Long Term Stock Market Timing Return Since 1871
- April 17, 2017: Risk vs. Volatility: Long Term Stock Market Returns
- April 10, 2017: Total Return Bond ETFs And Portfolios
- April 3, 2017: Quarter End Asset Trend Review
- March 27, 2017: Practical Consideration For IRAs And 401k Accounts
- March 20, 2017: Fund Fees: That’s (Still) Outrageous
- March 13, 2017: Long Term Stock Valuation Review
- March 6, 2017: Asset Classes for Retirement Investments
- February 27, 2017: Fidelity Total Bond Fund Review
- February 20, 2017: Long Term Stock Timing Based Portfolios And Their Roles
- February 13, 2017: Alternative Investment Portfolios Review
- February 6, 2017: Tax Free Municipal Bond Investments Review
- January 30, 2017: Brokerage Specific Conservative Portfolios
- January 23, 2017: Fixed Income Portfolio Review
- January 16, 2017: Long Term Trend Following Portfolio Review
- January 9, 2017: Tactical Asset Allocation Review
- January 3, 2017: Strategic Asset Allocation Review
- December 12, 2016: Enhanced Index Funds
- December 5, 2016: Review Of Broad Base Core Mutual Funds For Brokerages
- November 28, 2016: Core Index ETFs Review
- November 21, 2016: International Exposure Of U.S. Large Companies
- November 14, 2016: Asset Trends After The Election
- November 7, 2016: Rising Rate And Current Bond Trend
- October 31, 2016: Economy Power And Long Term Stock Returns
- October 24, 2016: Current Commodity Trend And Managed Futures
- October 17, 2016: Investment Mistakes And Good Or Bad Investment Strategies
- October 10, 2016: Momentum Investing Review
- October 3, 2016: Survey & Feedback
- September 26, 2016: Fixed Income Investing: Actively Managed Funds vs. Index Funds
- September 19, 2016: Stock Investing: Actively Managed Funds vs. Index Funds
- September 12, 2016: Newsletter Update
- September 5, 2016: Overvalued Markets And Long Term Timing Strategies
- August 29, 2016: Your 401K Finally Draws Attention
- August 22, 2016: Inflation Protected Securities TIPS For Current Overvalued Markets
- August 15, 2016: Risk On: Emerging Market Stocks And Small Cap Stocks
- August 8, 2016: Portfolio Construction Using Stock ETFs And Bond Mutual Funds
- August 1, 2016: Adding Value To Your Own Investments
- July 25, 2016: Tactical Asset Allocation Funds Review
- July 18, 2016: Strategic Asset Allocation & Lazy Portfolio Review
- July 11, 2016: Asset Trend Review
- June 27, 2016: Secular Cycles For Tactical And Strategic Investment Strategies
- June 20, 2016: A World of Debt
- June 13, 2016: Managed Futures For Portfolio Building
- June 6, 2016: Newsletter Summary
- May 30, 2016: Swensen Portfolio And Permanent Portfolios
- May 23, 2016: AAII Article And Some Web Changes
- May 16, 2016: The PIMCO (Dis)Advantages
- May 9, 2016: Boost Your Dull Summer Investments
- May 2, 2016: Low Cost Index Fund Investing
- April 25, 2016: Tax Free Municipal Bond Funds & Portfolios
- April 18, 2016: Asset Class Trend Review
- April 11, 2016: Construction of Sound And Conservative Portfolios
- March 28, 2016: Total Return Bond ETFs Review
- March 21, 2016: Small And Large Company Stock Performance In Different Economic Expansion Cycles
- March 14, 2016: Are Tactical And Timing Strategies Losing Steam?
- March 7, 2016: Defined Maturity Bond Fund Analysis
- February 29, 2016: Smart Strategic Asset Allocation Rebalance When Market Trend Changes
- February 22, 2016: Be Cash Smart
- February 15, 2016: Bond ETF Portfolios
- February 8, 2016: Newsletter Collection Update
- February 1, 2016: Total Return Bond Fund Portfolios In A Volatile Period
- January 25, 2016: Alternative Portfolios Review
- January 18, 2016: Strategic Asset Allocation: A Cautious Outlook
- January 11, 2016: Review Of Trend Following Tactical Asset Allocation
- January 4, 2016: What Worked And Didn’t In 2015
- December 21, 2015: Distressed Assets
- December 14, 2015: High Yield Bonds And Their Correlation With Stocks
- December 7, 2015: Diversification And Global Allocation
- November 30, 2015: Investors and Speculators Combined
- November 23, 2015: Active Stock Fund Performance Consistency
- November 16, 2015: Permanent, Risk Parity And Alternative Portfolios Review
- November 9, 2015: Broad Base Core Mutual Fund Review
- November 2, 2015: Broad Base Index Core ETFs Review
- October 26, 2015: Total Return Bond Fund Review
- October 19, 2015: Advanced Portfolio Review
- October 12, 2015: What About Commodities?
- October 5, 2015: Core Satellite Portfolios In A 401k Account
- September 28, 2015: Risk Managed Strategic Asset Allocation Portfolios Revisited
- September 21, 2015: Quest For The Best Investment Strategy
- September 14, 2015: Core Satellite Portfolios In Market Turmoil
- September 7, 2015: Market Rout Creates An Opportunity to Reposition Your Portfolios
- August 31, 2015: Review of Asset Allocation Funds and Portfolios
- August 24, 2015: Market Rout And Your Portfolios
- August 17, 2015: ETF or Mutual Fund Based Portfolios
- August 10, 2015: Updated Newsletter Collection
- August 3, 2015: Slippery Asset Trends
- July 27, 2015: Performance Dispersion Among Momentum Based Portfolios
- July 20, 2015: Global Balanced Portfolio Benchmarks
- July 13, 2015: Pain in Tactical Portfolios
- July 6, 2015: Fixed Income Total Return Bond Funds In Strategic Asset Allocation Portfolios
- June 29, 2015: Core ETF Commission Free Portfolios
- June 22, 2015: Secular Asset Trends
- June 15, 2015: Giving Up Bonds?
- June 1, 2015: Summer Blues?
- May 26, 2015: Cash, Bonds and Stocks In A Rising Rate Environment
- May 18, 2015: Portfolio Update
- May 11, 2015: Pain in Fixed Income?
- May 4, 2015: The Balanced Stock and Long Term Treasury Bond Portfolios
- April 27, 2015: Long Term Treasury Bond Behavior
- April 20, 2015: 529 College Savings Plan Rebalance Policy Change
- April 13, 2015: Total Return Bond Funds As Smart Cash
- April 6, 2015: The Low Return Environment
- March 30, 2015: Brokerage Specific Core Mutual Fund Portfolios 2
- March 23, 2015: Investment Arithmetic for Long Term Investments
- March 16, 2015: Brokerage Specific Core Mutual Fund Portfolios
- March 9, 2015: Newsletter Collection Update
- March 2, 2015: Total Return Bond ETFs
- February 23, 2015: Why Is Global Tactical Asset Allocation Not Popular?
- February 16, 2015: Where Are Permanent Portfolios Going?
- February 9, 2015: How Have Asset Allocation Funds Done?
- February 2, 2015: Risk Management Everywhere
- January 26, 2015: Composite Portfolios Review
- January 19, 2015: Fixed Income Investing Review
- January 12, 2015: How Does Trend Following Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Deliver Returns
- January 5, 2015: When Forecast Fails
- December 22, 2014: Long Term Asset Returns: How Long Is Long?
- December 15, 2014: Beaten Down Assets
- December 8, 2014: Implementing Core Asset Portfolios In a Brokerage
- December 1, 2014: Two Key Issues of Investment Strategies
- November 24, 2014: Holiday Readings
- November 17, 2014: Retirement Spending Portfolios Update
- November 10, 2014: Fixed Income Or Cash
- November 3, 2014: Asset Trend Review
- October 27, 2014: Investment Loss, Mistakes And Market Cycles
- October 20, 2014: Strategic Portfolios With Managed Volatility
- October 13, 2014: Embrace Volatility
- October 6, 2014: Tips For 401k Open Enrollment
- September 29, 2014: What Can We Learn From Bill Gross’ Departure From PIMCO?
- September 22, 2014: Why Total Return Bond Funds?
- September 15, 2014: Equity And Total Return Bond Fund Composite Portfolios
- September 8, 2014: Momentum Based Portfolios Review
- September 1, 2014: Risk & Diversification: Mint.com Interview
- August 25, 2014: Remember Risk
- August 18, 2014: Consistency, The Most Important Edge In Investing: Tactical Case
- August 11, 2014: What To Do In Overvalued Stock Markets
- August 4, 2014: Is This The Peak Or Correction?
- July 28, 2014: Stock Musings
- July 21, 2014: Permanent Portfolios & Four Pillar Foundation Based Framework
- July 14, 2014: Composite Portfolios Review
- July 7, 2014: Portfolio Behavior During Market Corrections
- June 30, 2014: Half Year Brokerage ETF and Mutual Fund Portfolios Review
- June 23, 2014: Newsletter Collection Update
- June 16, 2014: There Are Always Lottery Winners
- June 9, 2014: The Arithmetic of Investment Mistakes
- June 2, 2014: Tips On Portfolio Rebalance
- May 26, 2014: In Praise Of Low Cost Core Asset Class Based Portfolios
- May 19, 2014: Consistency, The Most Important Edge In Investing: Strategic Case
- May 12, 2014: How To Handle An Elevated Overvalued Market
- May 5, 2014: Asset Allocation Funds Review
- April 28, 2014: Now The Economy Backs To The ‘Old Normal’, Should Our Investments Too?
- April 21, 2014: Total Return Bond Investing In The Current Market Environment