Conservative Portfolios Revisited
First, a few words on our recent newsletters: you might notice that our recent articles are mostly on conservative topics such as cash, short term investments, total return bond funds based portfolios and conservative portfolios. This actually reflects our belief that even though financial markets (stocks and bonds) have been doing well lately, we are now more and more approaching to a correction point, considering extremely high stock valuation. Of course, we have no idea when that actually will happen. So while our portfolios (other than the long term market valuation based portfolios) are taking advantage of the recent market strength by mostly investing in stocks in their full capacity/allocations, we want our users to understand that we are cautious on the markets and for new money or new investors, a properly managed risk is called for.
On to the conservative portfolios, our recent newsletters like September 18, 2017: Conservative Portfolios Review has drew several users’ requests. They are interested in how to construct a conservative portfolio that’s even less volatile. For example, one of users’ email stated that he’s interested in a conservative portfolio that not only outperforms VWINX (Vanguard Wellesley Income Inv), but it should be less volatile.
Though from the recent newsletter September 18, 2017: Conservative Portfolios Review, one can see that the portfolios listed on Brokerage Investors page have outperformed VWINX in returns and also have closely matched VWINX in terms of volatility and maximum drawdown. For example, Schwab Conservative Total Return Dividend Portfolio has maximum drawdown (i.e. maximum loss from a peak to a following trough) 20.1% compared with VWINX’s 21.7%, while it’s standard deviation 6.8% is slightly bigger than VWINX’s 6.1%.
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