Portfolio Performance: A Walk In The Past II
About two and half years ago, we published August 21, 2017: Portfolio Performance: A Walk In The Past. In that newsletter, we tried to help investors to walk back in history so that we can better understand the situations when a series of underperformance periods occurred. As now we just concluded a banner year for US stocks and not so great year for TAA portfolios, we would like to revisit this walk by updating the latest figure.
The latest walk
In the previous newsletter, we tried to ask readers to place themselves at a snapshot of the past and looked at the historical returns of our tactical portfolio (GSTAA) P Goldman Sachs Global Tactical Include Emerging Market Diversified Bonds (listed on Advanced Strategies page) and S&P 500 (represented by Vanguard’s VFINX). In this latest exercise, we shall continue to use GSTAA as our yardstick, even though we now also have a new type of portfolios that utilize market composite momentum/indicator (the Asset Allocation Composite (AAC) strategy or see portfolios like P Composite Momentum Scoring Global Risk Assets (on Advanced Strategies page).
Each year, we compare the GSTAA portfolio’s 1 year return with VFINX’s. This represents so called short term walker. If the portfolio outperformed VFINX (S&P 500), investors would get a happy face, otherwise, an upset face. Similarly, we also construct a long term walk map for comparing the trailing 10 years’ returns. It turns out that 2017 was the last year (and the only outlier in the past 11 years) when investors were happy for both short term and long term walks:
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