The ‘Best’ Balanced Portfolio Continues To Excel
US stocks continue to be in an overly extended level. This has persisted for the last several years. We have repeatedly pointed out their extreme valuation based on several long term metrics (see Market Indicators, for example). However, investors who have been with us for the last several years also notice that markets can be way over extended (or ‘irrational’) for a long time. In fact, it can be long enough so that many rational investors throw in the towel one by one, only eventually finding out that they are suddenly confronting with a severe correction or bear market.
There are several ways to cope with this. Among them, the simplest way is to just combine both buy and hold when stocks are undervalued and even reasonably valued and, when they are overvalued, become more tactical (thus a speculator) using something as simple as a 200 day moving average on US stock index like S&P 500. We detailed this approach in the following two newsletters:
- September 4, 2017: Invest And Speculate Revisited
- November 30, 2015: Investors and Speculators Combined
The above approach only deals with stock investing. For most investors, their portfolios are more ‘balanced’: i.e. they should include at least some portion in fixed income (bonds). For fixed income part, MyPlanIQ has long maintained some excellent portfolios called total return bond fund portfolios that tactically invest in a few highly selective total return bond mutual funds. These portfolios have consistently outperformed the ‘best’ total return bond or intermediate bond funds for the past several years. For example, as of 6/15/2018, these portfolios, listed on our What we do -> Brokerage Investors page, have the following performance:
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