11/17/2010

Commodities will play an increasingly important role as we climb out of the recent market mahem and inflation becomes a reality. MyPlanIQ tracks detailed weekly commodity trend movement. We use ETFs that represent commodity subgroups including agriculture, precious metals, base metals, energy and present the results here.

More details are available on the MyPlanIQ website.

Commodities can almost be split in two -- precious metals that react to currency devaluation and the rest which will be impacted by inflation and economic growth.

Most of the indicators are positive as we see turbulence in the currency markets, forecasts of a cold winter and the expectation that supplies will be tight as various economic stimulus packages spur growth.

Precious metals are increasingly being seen as a currency reference point as a range of currencies that were once standards are going to be under pressure as national debt forces stringent responses. This is likely to continue for some time.



As we enter winter, the demand for oil and energy will increase, driving prices higher. This will also be impacted by the dollar as oil is traded in that currency.

Natural gas is held in check by large stockpiles reducing the liklihood of any type of shortfall even if the winter turns out to be as cold as forecasted.

labels:investment,

Symbols:SLV,DBP,GLD,DBB,DBA,DBC,DBE,USO,UNG,SPY,QQQQ,IWM,MDY,EFA,VEU,EEM,VWO,IYR,ICF,VNQ,GSG,LQD,CSJ,CIU,HYG,JNK,PHB,TLT,IEF,SHY,SHV,BND,AGG,MUB,MBB,

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11/17/2010

We are initiating coverage of where moderate allocation funds are putting their money. This will give an indication of whether fund managers are being more conservative or aggressive this week.

We track two separate indicators:

1. We review and assign the top 3 Moderate Allocation Funds. We then track their exposure to fixed income and risk based assets. This is calculated weekly and covers the last one year.

2. We then aggregate the exposure to fixed income and risk based assets of all Moderate Allocation Funds. It is calculated weekly and covers the last one year.

click to enlarge

We can see some big variations over the past year and considerable recent volatility. We can see the impact of QE2 driving equities up and then the weakness towards the end of the weak as most indices fell. There would be a more defensive move to fixed income assets.

At this point, the balance is marginally defensive.

The aggregate group is not reacting to the changes -- the moderate portfolios have become slightly more aggressive. This may change if the current sentiment continues.

labels:investment,

Symbols:SPY,QQQQ,IWM,MDY,EFA,VEU,EEM,VWO,IYR,ICF,VNQ,GSG,DBC,DBA,USO,LQD,CSJ,CIU,HYG,JNK,PHB,TLT,IEF,SHY,SHV,BND,AGG,MUB,MBB,

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11/16/2010

MyPlanIQ tracks detailed weekly country economic trend movement. We use ETFs that represent each geographic region and present the results here.

This is the second week of coverage and with QE2 and G20 meetings behind us. Each sovereign nation will deal with their own challenges as they react changes on the international stage.

More details are available on the MyPlanIQ website.

The largest industrial nations are meeting in Seoul this week and one of the topics on the agenda is rebalancing global growth. 

India and Russia see the biggest change with India dropping out of the top three.

labels:investment,

Symbols:INP,EZA,EWS,EWH,EWW,EWM,EWY,RSX,EWA,EWT,EWC,EWZ,EWL,EWG,EWU,FXI,EWK,EWN,EWJ,EWQ,EWO,EWI,EWP,SPY,QQQQ,IWM,MDY,EFA,VEU,EEM,VWO,IYR,ICF,VNQ,GSG,DBC,DBA,USO,LQD,CSJ,CIU,HYG,JNK,PHB,TLT,IEF,SHY,SHV,BND,AGG,MUB,MBB,

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11/12/2010

US sectors provide insight into the parts of the US economy that are flourishing or floundering. We are tracking the ETFs that represent ten different financial sectors.

More details are available on the MyPlanIQ website.

click to enlarge

We are entering the holiday period with the QE2 wind at our backs. This is going to increase consumer confidence and consumer spending.

The materials and commodity sectors have jumped due to a weak dollar, which the QE2 program exacerbates. It is also likely to stimulate demand for materials further pushing up the price.

The telecom sector includes wireless phone providers and they will likely do well through the holiday period with the increasing success of smart phones.

With the Republican victory in the House, some analysts are talking a lot these days about utilities stocks -- the reason being that the sector may benefit from the higher likelihood that the 15% tax rate on dividends will be extended.

The financial sector is still recovering from its meltdown and will continue to be under pressure with continuing concerns with mortgage stability and general fragility.

Healthcare's overall performance has been under pressure in this economic environment. Despite a substantial portion of their products being required for survival, sales remain sluggish. As a result, a wave of consolidation has gobbled up mid-cap companies with new products.

Some of these sectors will peak in the holiday season while others will settle over a longer time period as the political and economic climate evolves.

labels:investment,

Symbols:AGG,BND,CIU,CSJ,DBA,DBC,EEM,EFA,GSG,HYG,ICF,IEF,IWM,IYR,IYZ,JNK,LQD,MBB,MDY,MUB,PHB,QQQQ,SHV,SHY,SPY,TLT,USO,VEU,VNQ,VWO,XLB,XLE,XLF,XLI,XLK,XLP,XLU,XLV,XLY,

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11/10/2010

While the world is becoming more connected, local conditions prevail resulting in different economic returns. MyPlanIQ tracks detailed weekly country economic trend movement. We use ETFs that represent each geographic region and present the results here.

More details are available on the MyPlanIQ website.

The largest industrial nations are meeting in Seoul this week and one of the topics on the agenda is rebalancing global growth.

Country	Symbol	8-Nov Trend Score	Direction
India	INP	57%	Week 1
South Africa	EZA	47%	Week 1
Singapore	EWS	43%	Week 1
Hong Kong	EWH	42%	Week 1
Mexico	EWW	41%	Week 1
Malaysia	EWM	40%	Week 1
South Korea	EWY	37%	Week 1
Russia	RSX	34%	Week 1
Australia	EWA	29%	Week 1
Taiwan	EWT	28%	Week 1
Canada	EWC	28%	Week 1
Brazil	EWZ	21%	Week 1
Switzerland	EWL	21%	Week 1
Germany	EWG	20%	Week 1
United Kingdom	EWU	20%	Week 1
China	FXI	19%	Week 1
Belgium	EWK	13%	Week 1
The Netherlands	EWN	13%	Week 1
Japan	EWJ	12%	Week 1
France	EWQ	9%	Week 1
Austria	EWO	9%	Week 1
Italy	EWI	-7%	Week 1
Spain	EWP	-17%	Week 1

India continues its growth as the recent visit of President Obama signals. There is increasing pressure for India to open its markets to the US to make the relationship a two way street.

South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan said the U.S. decision to purchase bonds to pump money into the economy may push up the rand and cost jobs. Group of 20 nations meeting in South Korea this week need to agree on ways to stimulate their economies without damaging those of others. 

SINGAPORE Airlines has reported a second-quarter profit of $380 million, reversing a $159 million loss during the same July-September period last year. The results were delivered on the back of a 18 per cent jump in revenue to $3.63 billion, as load factors and yields continued to improve, the airline said on Tuesday.

 

 Hong Kong launched a campaign Monday to promote itself as a global financial hub and rejected suggestions that it was trying to counter growing competition from Shanghai.

President Felipe Calderón, declared his support for small and medium businesses, which produce 7 out of the 10 jobs in Mexico

Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan on Tuesday pledged to bring Japan into the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement, or TPP, saying the trade liberalization initiative will help the country return to a path of robust growth.

The Bank of France forecasts 0.5-percent fourth-quarter growth The French economy is struggling to put its strained public finances in order. There have been many protests about the move to increase the retirement age.

Recently the Austrian government greed to a rigid austerity budget which involves massive social cuts. At the same time, the government plans to raise taxes primarily for lower and middle income brackets.

Italy is the Eurozone's third largest economy, accounting for about 17% of GDP and has come through in reasonable shape. The banks are strong and Italians are Europe's best savers. Recently the the European Commission raised its growth forecast for Italy, projecting that faster export growth will see GDP expand  by 1.1% this year up from 0.8% forecast in May.

Spain's troubled banking sector is back in the news again. Despite the apparently succesful stress tests carried out over the summer problems persist, and don't seem likely to go away soon. Foremost among these is the steady rise in problem loans which have now risen to an all-time high, potentially endangering the credit rating of the country's financial institutions, according to a recent report from the credit ratings agency Moody's.

In conclusion, the G20 meeting is the big ticket item this week and what results could impact the direction of the indicators.

labels:investment,

Symbols: INP,EZA,EWS,EWH,EWW,EWM,EWY,RSX,EWA,EWT,EWC,EWZ,EWL,EWG,EWU,FXI,EWK,EWN,EWJ,EWQ,EWO,EWI,EWP,SPY,QQQQ,IWM,MDY,EFA,VEU,EEM,VWO,IYR,ICF,VNQ,GSG,DBC,DBA,USO,LQD,CSJ,CIU,HYG,JNK,PHB,TLT,IEF,SHY,SHV,BND,AGG,MUB,MBB,

 

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07/26/2010