 |
Vanguard ETF: |  |
7.4%* |
|
Diversified Core: | |
8.1%* |
|
Six Core Asset ETFs: | |
7.3%* |
Articles on VWO
- 3 Lessons from the Demise of Legg Mason's Bill Miller
11/17/2011
Bill Miller to Step Down From Legg Mason Value Trust, reported by AdvisorOne.com. Since the great financial crisis in 2008, there have been numerous high profile managers' failures including Fairholme's Bruce Berkowitz (FAIRX). While we can put blame on these individuals, what one should always remember is that all humans are subject to failures, regardless how great they are. By the way, this is also applicable to ourselves and various great committees (recently, Morningstar started to release its new 'forward looking' rating system that is decided by committees, we'll have more on this later). So what to do with our retirement investments such as 401K, IRA accounts? How do we escape from being trapped in such funds? 3 lessons can be drawn from this:
- Diversification: you need diversification at your overall account level, at your portfolio level and at your security level. Diversified funds are better than individual stocks, especially if you are only dealing with a handful of them. At the portfolio or account level, proper asset allocation determines majority of your returns and risk.
- Fundamentals: yes, we still believe fundamentals such as managers' track record, investment strategies, fund expenses, etc. These will serve you the first line of defense (and offense). So information provided by firms such as Morningstar.com is still useful.
- Technical or stop loss: on the other hand, we do believe that one need to have a ultimate line of defense: when a fund is not doing well for an extended period based on a systematic and well defined set of rules, you have to liquidate it. The permanent capital loss is just too great to hope for a recovery or rely on superhuman acts.
The last point is the most contentious and sometimes is against our super human or well educated committee members' consensus. Recognizing that adopting this will result in under performance in a super bull market or for an (extended) period of under performance of a good fund. But that is again an insurance one has to pay to avoid severe damages by such super humans.Just as a comparison, the David Swensen Six ETF Asset Individual Investor Plan consists of only six broad base ETFs and diversified asset allocation portfolios have outperformed both S&P index and other once great funds by big margins:Portfolio Performance Comparison (as of 11/16/2011)
Portfolio/Fund Name 1Yr AR 1Yr Sharpe 3Yr AR 3Yr Sharpe 5Yr AR 5Yr Sharpe David Swensen Six ETF Asset Individual Investor Plan Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 12% 72% 11% 82% 10% 68% David Swensen Six ETF Asset Individual Investor Plan Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 5% 26% 18% 90% 6% 27% FAIRX -22% -74% 10% 36% 0% -3% SPY 6% 4% 15% 23% -1% -9% LMVTX -1% -6% 15% 48% -10% -34% More detailed comparison.
Disclaimer: MyPlanIQ does not have any business relationship with the company or companies mentioned in this article. It does not set up their retirement plans. The performance data of portfolios mentioned above are obtained through historical simulation and are hypothetical.
Symbols: SPX, COMP, ETFs, Headline, Mutual-Funds Tags: EEM, EFA, FAIRX, IYR, LMVTX, SPY, TIP, TLT, VWO
- Investment Management: Morgan Stanley Smith Barney Is Now on Risk Off Mode
11/15/2011
Morgan Stanley Smith Barney published its latest November viewpoints on portfolio strategies. It stated that the odds of a recession in the U.S. and beyond are “uncomfortably high.” Here are its tactical changes for portfolios:
The global cash represents dollars and other currencies. This itself should be treated as an asset class that needs careful management.
Compared with MyPlanIQ's Tactical Asset Allocation(TAA), we are cautious and about 1/3 to 1/2 of full risk asset exposure. Some of our plans reduced risk asset exposures in September, helping to even preserve some gains from risk assets.
See Six Core Asset ETFs that consists of six major asset classes US Stocks (SPY, VTI), International Stocks (EFA, VEU), Emerging Market Stocks (EEM, VWO), REITs (IYR, VNQ), Commodities (DBC, GSG) and Total US Bonds (AGG, BND).
Portfolio Performance Comparison (as of 11/14/2011)
Portfolio/Fund Name 1Yr AR 1Yr Sharpe 3Yr AR 3Yr Sharpe 5Yr AR 5Yr Sharpe Six Core Asset ETFs Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 3% 12% 13% 73% 5% 25% Six Core Asset ETFs Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate -0% -15% 8% 65% 9% 67% SPY 6% 4% 13% 23% -0% -9% VBINX 6% 14% 13% 46% 3% 10% More details here.
Symbols: SPX, COMP, SPY, VTI, EFA, EEM, VWO, VNQ, IYR, DBC, AGG, Investment Management, Asset Allocation
- Retirement Investments: Compared with Hedge Fund Performance
11/08/2011
The following is the newest October hot shot hedge fund performance data:
More specifically,
Strategies/Portfolios YTD (as of 10/31/2011) Fund of Funds - Diversifed -4.84% Diversified Macro -1.42% Global Macro -2.15% Six Core Asset ETF Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 0.69% Six Core Asset ETF Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate -2.56% Permanent Portfolio Global trategic Asset Allocation Moderate 1% Permanent Portfolio Global Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 2.13% Our Tactical Asset Allocation(TAA) is similar to Global macro hedge fund strategy. We can see that both Strategic Asset Allocation and Tactical Asset Allocation model portfolios are compared favorably with the hedge fund averages.
For more information, see Six Core Asset ETFs plan that has ONLY 6 broadbase ETFs (Vanguard low cost ETFs VTI, VEU, VNQ, VWO, BND and one Poweshares DB Commodities ETF DBC).
Permanent Global Portfolio ETF Plan uses Gold (GLD), silver (SLV) and other ETFs to form a diversified hedging portfolio.
Symbols: SPX, COMP, VTI, VEU, VNQ, VWO, BND, DBC, GLD, SLV, TLT, IYR, Retirement Investments, Hedge Funds, Asset Allocation
- Strategic and Tactical Allocation for Retirement Investments
10/17/2011
Strategic Asset Allocation(SAA) and Tactical Asset Allocation(TAA) can complement to each other. The following is a recent article Core Satellite Portfolios For Long-Term Investments published on SeekingAlpha.com that discussed this issue:
"Recent market swings and weakness have proven to be difficult for both strategic and tactical asset allocation strategies. For a long-term investor who is concerned about his/her retirement investments, such as 401(k)s, IRAs, 403(b)s and variable annuity accounts, it is thus important to understand the strength and weaknes of the two common strategies.
The concept of core satellite portfolio construction has been adopted for several years by many investment advisers, wealth managers and financial planners. The EDHEC has collected several papers detailing this concept."
......
Read more on Core Satellite Portfolios For Long-Term Investments.
See the Core Satellite Six Core Asset ETFs 25 Core 75 Satellite portfolio and the comparison with strategic asset allocation and tactical asset allocation.
Symbols: SPX, COMP, AGG, BND, DBC, EEM, EFA, GSG, IYR, SPY, VEU, VNQ, VTI, VWO, Retirement Investments, Portfolio Management, Asset Allocation
- 401K Investments: Alcoa Savings Plan Review
10/11/2011
Retirement investing is a long term process. This report reviews Alcoa Inc Savings Plan MTIA plan, discusses the 401k investment options and presents the plan rating by MyPlanIQ. Asset allocation investment portfolios are examined. Current economic and market conditions are discussed in the context of the investment portfolios in the plan. We will then show how plan participants in Alcoa Inc Savings Plan MTIA can achieve reasonable investment results using portfolio management and risk management strategies for their 401k investments.
Plan Review and Rating
Alcoa, Inc. engages in the production and management of aluminum, fabricated aluminum, and alumina. The company is the largest aluminum provider in the world. Alcoa, Inc. was founded in 1888 and is based in New York, New York.
Alcoa Inc Savings Plan MTIA's 401K plan consists of 13 funds. These funds enable participants to gain exposure to 4 major assets: US Equity, Foreign Equity, Emerging Market Equity, Fixed Income.
Asset Class Ticker Name LARGE GROWTH RAFCX American Funds AMCAP R3 Moderate Allocation RLBFX American Funds American Balanced R5 LARGE BLEND RICFX American Funds Invmt Co of Amer R5 DIVERSIFIED EMERGING MKTS MGEMX Morgan Stanley Inst Emerging Mkts I WORLD STOCK RNPFX American Funds New Perspective R5 Foreign Large Growth PRITX T. Rowe Price International Stock SMALL BLEND PASSX T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Stock Adv Moderate Allocation VGSTX Vanguard STAR Inv LARGE BLEND VITPX Vanguard Instl Ttl Stk Mkt Idx Instl Pls Intermediate-Term Bond VBMFX Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Inv MID-CAP BLEND VIEIX Vanguard Extended Market Idx Instl Small Growth MMCIX BNY Mellon Small/Mid Cap Inv Foreign Large Value MPITX BNY Mellon International M As of Oct 10, 2011, this plan investment choice is rated as average based on MyPlanIQ Plan Rating methodology that measures the effectiveness of a plan's available investment funds. It has the following detailed ratings:
Diversification -- Rated as average (51%)
Fund Quality -- Rated as average (45%)
Portfolio Building -- Rated as above average (81%)
Overall Rating: average (61%)On stock/equity side, it offers various styles (large, mid and small cap) stock funds. Some of those funds are of high quality (such as American Funds AMCAP R3). An excellent moderate allocation fund American Funds American Balanced R5 is available for anyone who prefers using one stop shop fund.
On fixed income (bond) side, Alcoa's plan offers only one Vanguard total bond index fund (VBMFX) for its plan participants. This is an area that can be expanded.
Current Economic and Market Conditions
The U.S. and the rest of the world face long term structural problems that it takes time to correct. The following are some of these problems:
- The consumption driven economies in developed countries and the export driven economies in emerging countries result in a one way trade flow that can only be sustained for a limited time.
- Private households in the U.S. are highly in debt, mostly due to the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy to prop up consumption and living standards. It is impossible to make debts go away overnight without inflicting severe social and economic hardship.
- Sovereign debt is growing out of control in many countries due to years of relaxed fiscal policies and the recent stimulus driven rescue. It should be noted that this exists not only in developed countries but also in several emerging countries, noticeably in China (adding local government debt, the Chinese government debt would rival the US) and somewhat in Brazil.
- Uneven productivity and competitiveness of work forces in developed countries and emerging countries. Both productivity and competitiveness can be simply measured by return on investment (ROI), or so called 'cost effectiveness'. We can see this uneven productivity from the difference between German workers and those in peripheral European countries as well as the difference between manufacture workers in the U.S. and those in emerging countries.
- The relatively decline of K-12 education quality in the U.S., especially in science and technology, makes it more and more difficult for the country to be competitive in manufacturing and producing high tech goods.
It takes time to correct structural problems as it requires fundamental changes in policies, improvements in productive investments (such as infrastructure upgrade), a better trained current work force and a future generation that is better equipped in science and technology. All this will take time.
In such an environment, it is key to have proper asset allocation in place for one's retirement investment portfolios.
Asset Class Trends
The following table shows how major asset classes such as US equity (stocks), foreign equity, emerging market equity, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), commodities and fixed income (bonds) are ranked based on their price momentum.
Assets Class Symbols 10/10
Trend
Score10/03
Trend
ScoreDirection Gold GLD 7.88% 8.29% v Intermediate Treasuries IEF 3.76% 7.81% v Municipal Bonds MUB 2.29% 3.67% v Total US Bonds BND 2.05% 3.57% v Mortgage Back Bonds MBB 1.45% 2.43% v US Credit Bonds CFT 1.4% 2.41% v International Treasury Bonds BWX 0.87% -1.35% ^ Treasury Bills SHV 0.05% 0.01% ^ Emerging Mkt Bonds PCY -0.27% -0.92% ^ US Stocks VTI -0.74% -10.36% ^ US High Yield Bonds JNK -0.86% -5.7% ^ US Equity REITs VNQ -3.32% -11.9% ^ Commodities DBC -3.68% -8.09% ^ International Developed Stks EFA -4.28% -14.26% ^ International REITs RWX -5.45% -13.89% ^ Emerging Market Stks VWO -10.26% -20.42% ^ Frontier Market Stks FRN -10.66% -19.69% ^ For more information on the trends of major asset classes, please see Asset Class Trend Watch.
Portfolio Discussions
The chart and table below show the historical performance of moderate model portfolios employing strategic and tactical asset allocation strategies. For comparison purpose, we also include the moderate model portfolios of a typical 4 asset SIB (Simpler Is Better) plan . This SIB plan has the following candidate index funds and their ETFs equivalent:
US Equity: SPY or VTI
Foreign Equity: EFA or VEU
Emerging Market Equity: EEM or VWO
Fixed Income: AGG or BND
Performance chart (as of Oct 10, 2011)Performance table (as of Oct 10, 2011)
Portfolio Name 1Yr AR 1Yr Sharpe 3Yr AR 3Yr Sharpe 5Yr AR 5Yr Sharpe Alcoa Inc Savings Plan MTIA Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate -1% -7% 9% 89% 10% 84% Alcoa Inc Savings Plan MTIA Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate -1% -18% 11% 55% 4% 21% Four Core Asset ETF (EM) Benchmark Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 1% 12% 6% 54% 8% 56% Four Core Asset ETF (EM) Benchmark Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate -4% -40% 10% 37% 3% 6% Currently Fixed Income, Cash and International Bonds are doing well. Only one fixed income bond fund VBMFX is available to Alcoa Inc Savings Plan MTIA participants.
To summarize, participants adopting Alcoa Inc Savings Plan MTIA plan can achieve reasonable investment returns by adopting asset allocation strategies that are tailored to their risk profiles. Diversification and proper risk management are the two major key factors in 401k investing.
Symbols: AA, SPX, COMP, VTI, VEU, VWO, BND, RAFCX, RLBFX, RICFX, MGEMX, RNPFX, PRITX, PASSX, VGSTX, VITPX, VBMFX, VIEIX, MMCIX, MPITX, 401K Investments, Portfolio Management, Retirement Investing
- 403B Investments: University of California Retirement Savings Program Review
09/16/2011
- 401K Investments: Moody's Profit Participantion Plan Offers Good Diversification and Quality Funds
09/14/2011
- Portfolio Management: Black Swan Tail Insurance vs. Tactical Asset Allocation
09/13/2011
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09/13/2011
- More Can Be Done by Financial Advisors
09/10/2011
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09/08/2011
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08/19/2011
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08/13/2011
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08/09/2011
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07/22/2011
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07/16/2011
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07/08/2011
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06/27/2011
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06/23/2011
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06/16/2011
- Apache Design Solutions 401K Report On 12/03/2010
12/03/2010
This report reviews Apache Design Solutions 401K plan. We will discuss the investment choices and present the plan rating by MyPlanIQ. Current economic and market conditions are discussed in the context of the investment portfolios in the plan. We will then show how participants in Apache Design Solutions 401K can achieve reasonable investment results using asset allocation strategies.
Plan Review and Rating
Apache Design Solutions 401K's 401K plan consists of 42 funds. These funds enable participants to gain exposure to 5 major assets: US Equity, Foreign Equity, REITs, Emerging Market Equity, Fixed Income. The list of minor asset classes covered:
Conservative Allocation: AOK
Diversified Emerging Mkts: EEM, GMM, PXH, DEM, SCHE
Foreign Large Blend: EFA, VEU, GWL, PFA
Foreign Small/mid Growth: IFSM, VSS, SCHC
Health: IYH, IXJ, VHT, XBI, PBE, DBR, RYH
Intermediate Government: IEI, VGIT, ITE
Intermediate-term Bond: AGG, CIU, BIV, BND
Large Blend: IVV, IYY, IWV, VTI, VV, SPY, DLN, RSP, SCHX
Large Growth: IVW, IWZ, JKE, VUG, ELG, QQQQ, RPG, SCHG
Large Value: IVE, IWW, JKF, VTV, ELV, PWV, RPV, SCHV
Mid-cap Growth: IJK, IWP, VOT, EMG, PWJ, RFG, UKW
Mid-cap Value: IJJ, IWS, JKI, VOE, EMV, PWP, RFV, UVU
Moderate Allocation: AOM
Natural Resources: IYM, IGE, VAW, XLB, XME, PYZ, DBN, RTM, UYM
Real Estate: IYR, ICF, VNQ
Retirement Income:
Small Blend: IJR, IWM, JKJ, VB, DSC, PJM, DES, SAA, UWM, SCHA
Small Growth: IJT, IWO, JKK, VBK, DSG, PWT, RZG, UKK
Small Value: IJS, IWN, JKL, VBR, DSV, PWY, RZV, UVT
Target Date 2016-2020: TZG
Target Date 2026-2030: TZL
Target Date 2036-2040: TZV
World Stock: IOO, VT
As of Dec 2, 2010, this plan investment choice is rated as based on MyPlanIQ Plan Rating methodology that measures the effectiveness of a plan's available investment funds. It has the following detailed ratings:
Diversification -- Rated as (85%)
Fund Quality -- Rated as (18%)
Portfolio Building -- Rated as (79%)
Overall Rating: (62%)Current Economic and Market Conditions
We have experienced an uncertain 2010: plenty of worries on whether the US economy will climb out of the great recession and recover.
- The Federal Reserve embarked on Quantitative Easing II (QE2) to stimulate the economy.
- The housing market is still at its low but largely stabilized.
- The unemployment rate is stuck at 9%.
Americans continue to face an uncertain future, given (among others) the high unemployment rate, large federal and local government debts and global trade imbalance. With such an economic backdrop, the stock and debt markets are going to be volatile. Despite this, markets have been resilient and appear positioned to rebound.
In this market it is even more critical to properly diversify and respond market changes. MyPlanIQ offers two asset allocation strategies: strategic and tactical asset allocation strategies ( SAA and TAA for participants in Apache Design Solutions 401K).
Strategic Asset Allocation is based on well known modern portfolio theory and its key features include: diversification, proper fund selection and periodically re-balancing.
Tactical Asset Allocation works on a diversified array of assets provided by funds in a plan and adjusts asset mixes based on market conditions such as asset price momentum utilized by TAA.
Portfolio Discussions
The chart and table below show the historical performance of moderate model portfolios employing strategic and tactical asset allocation strategies. For comparison purpose, we also include the moderate model portfolios of a typical 5 asset SIB (Simpler Is Better) plan . This SIB plan has the following candidate index funds and their ETFs equivalent:
US Equity: (SPY or VTI)
Foreign Equity: (EFA or VEU)
Emerging Market Equity: (EEM or VWO)
REITs: (IYR or VNQ or ICF)
Fixed Income: (AGG or BND)
Performance chart (as of Dec 2, 2010)Performance table (as of Dec 2, 2010)
Portfolio Name 1Yr AR 1Yr Sharpe 3Yr AR 3Yr Sharpe 5Yr AR 5Yr Sharpe Apache Design Solutions 401K Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 15% 100% 8% 64% 11% 81% Apache Design Solutions 401K Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 16% 155% 4% 22% 8% 44% Five Core Asset Index ETF Funds Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 9% 59% 7% 57% 14% 94% Five Core Asset Index ETF Funds Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 12% 95% 4% 14% 8% 35% Currently, asset classes in US Equity (SPY,VTI) and Emerging Market Equity (EEM,VWO) are doing relatively well. These asset classes are available to Apache Design Solutions 401K participants.
To summarize, Apache Design Solutions 401K plan participants can achieve reasonable investment returns by adopting asset allocation strategies that are tailored to their risk profiles.
Symbols: APA , SPY , VTI , EFA , VEU , EEM , VWO , IYR , VNQ , ICF , AGG , BND , AOM , AOK , CIU , BIV , IYH , IXJ , VHT , XBI , PBE , DBR , RYH , IYM , IGE , VAW , XLB , XME , PYZ , DBN , RTM , UYM , GWL , PFA , IVE , IWW , JKF , VTV , ELV , PWV , RPV , SCHV , TZG , TZL , TZV , IVV , IYY , IWV , VV , DLN , RSP , SCHX , IOO , VT , IVW , IWZ , JKE , VUG , ELG , QQQQ , RPG , SCHG , IJJ , IWS , JKI , VOE , EMV , PWP , RFV , UVU , IFSM , VSS , SCHC , IJS , IWN , JKL , VBR , DSV , PWY , RZV , UVT , IJR , IWM , JKJ , VB , DSC , PJM , DES , SAA , UWM , SCHA , GMM , PXH , DEM , SCHE , IEI , VGIT , ITE , IJK , IWP , VOT , EMG , PWJ , RFG , UKW , IJT , IWO , JKK , VBK , DSG , PWT , RZG , UKK
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