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Articles on SPY
- Where is the Smart Money Going
11/17/2010
We are initiating coverage of where moderate allocation funds are putting their money. This will give an indication of whether fund managers are being more conservative or aggressive this week.
We track two separate indicators:
-
We review and assign the top 3 Moderate Allocation Funds. We then track their exposure to fixed income and risk based assets. This is calculated weekly and covers the last one year.
-
We then aggregate the exposure to fixed income and risk based assets of all Moderate Allocation Funds. It is calculated weekly and covers the last one year.
We can see some big variations over the past year and considerable recent volatility. We can see the impact of QE2 driving equities up and then the weakness towards the end of the weak as most indices fell. There would be a more defensive move to fixed income assets.
At this point, the balance is marginally defensive.
The aggregate group is not reacting to the changes -- the moderate portfolios have become slightly more aggressive. This may change if the current sentiment continues.
labels:investment,
Symbols:SPY,QQQQ,IWM,MDY,EFA,VEU,EEM,VWO,IYR,ICF,VNQ,GSG,DBC,DBA,USO,LQD,CSJ,CIU,HYG,JNK,PHB,TLT,IEF,SHY,SHV,BND,AGG,MUB,MBB,
-
- Countries All Drop -- India significantly, Japan only a little
11/16/2010
MyPlanIQ tracks detailed weekly country economic trend movement. We use ETFs that represent each geographic region and present the results here.
This is the second week of coverage and with QE2 and G20 meetings behind us. Each sovereign nation will deal with their own challenges as they react changes on the international stage.
More details are available on the MyPlanIQ website.
The largest industrial nations are meeting in Seoul this week and one of the topics on the agenda is rebalancing global growth.Nation
Symbol
15-Nov Trend Score
Direction
8-Nov Trend Score
Hong Kong
EWH
16%
v
21%
South Africa
EZA
14%
v
20%
Singapore
EWS
13%
v
18%
India
INP
12%
v
24%
Mexico
EWW
12%
v
16%
Malaysia
EWM
11%
v
16%
South Korea
EWY
10%
v
15%
Germany
EWG
8%
v
13%
Taiwan
EWT
8%
v
13%
United Kingdom
EWU
8%
v
12%
Russia
RSX
7%
v
15%
Canada
EWC
7%
v
11%
Australia
EWA
7%
v
15%
China
FXI
6%
v
12%
Switzerland
EWL
6%
v
12%
Belgium
EWK
5%
v
11%
Austria
EWO
5%
v
11%
Brazil
EWZ
5%
v
12%
France
EWQ
4%
v
10%
Japan
EWJ
4%
v
4%
The Netherlands
EWN
4%
v
9%
Italy
EWI
1%
v
5%
Spain
EWP
-1%
v
1%
India and Russia see the biggest change with India dropping out of the top three.
With the exception of India, the top of the group behave in a similar way as the markets pulled back in the second half of the week.
India will be one to watch to see if it bounces back next week.
The countries at the bottom of the list also reacted in a cluster dropping around 4% with the exception of Japan that has a much more muted response.
Clearly the last week has been a challenging one and we will have to watch which ones rebound and to what extent.labels:investment,
Symbols:INP,EZA,EWS,EWH,EWW,EWM,EWY,RSX,EWA,EWT,EWC,EWZ,EWL,EWG,EWU,FXI,EWK,EWN,EWJ,EWQ,EWO,EWI,EWP,SPY,QQQQ,IWM,MDY,EFA,VEU,EEM,VWO,IYR,ICF,VNQ,GSG,DBC,DBA,USO,LQD,CSJ,CIU,HYG,JNK,PHB,TLT,IEF,SHY,SHV,BND,AGG,MUB,MBB,
- ETF Based Major Asset Class Trend Indicators For The Week of November 15
11/15/2010
Last week, MyPlanIQ initiated tracking major asset classes trend movement. These asset trends provide insights into underlying economic and market segments and are critical to tactical asset allocation strategies. We use ETFs that represent the asset class indices. For more information, please visit MyPlanIQ 360 Degree Market View.
Now that the QE2 initiative is "old news", some of the bullishness has also evaporated. Without further policy initiatives or data showing strength in the economy, there will be concern that Wall Street's rally may be running out of fuel.However, a week of positive data could give investors hard evidence to justify a rally that lifted the S&P 500 ~ 17% from the August 31 close to the 2010 closing high hit November 5.
There are some concerning signson the horizon and last week the major US indices all lost over 2%. This is reflected in the major asset class trend indicators which are all down even if the relative rankings are largely unchanged.
Description
Symbol
15-Nov Trend Score
Direction
8-Nov Trend Score
Frontier Market Stks
FRN
13%
v
20%
US Equity REITs
VNQ
9%
v
18%
Emerging Market Stks
VWO
9%
v
16%
Gold
GLD
9%
v
13%
International REITs
RWX
8%
v
15%
US Stocks
VTI
7%
v
10%
International Developed Stks
EFA
6%
v
9%
US High Yield Bonds
JNK
5%
v
8%
Commodities
GSG
5%
v
7%
Emerging Mkt Bonds
PCY
5%
v
9%
Intermediate Treasuries
IEF
3%
v
5%
International Treasury Bonds
BWX
3%
v
6%
US Credit Bonds
CFT
2%
v
4%
Mortgage Back Bonds
MBB
1%
v
2%
Total US Bonds
BND
1%
v
2%
Treasury Bills
SHV
0%
v
0%
Municipal Bonds
MUB
-1%
v
2%
Top Five Indicators
Emerging markets are going to react to the US market fluctuations and real estate is still edgy as it was a major cause of the current crisis. Gold is also down but much more heavily damped as it will continue to have strength based on inherent value and as currencies are under pressure.
Bottom Five Indicators
The bonds see some depression but are less volatile than the top asset classes.
In conclusion, the excitement from QE2 is over and we will see whether this down trend continues and we see a reversal towards more fixed income asset classes being desirable.labels:investment,
Symbols:EEM,VNQ,FRN,VWO,IYR,ICF,GLD,RWX,VTI,SPY,IWM,PCY,EMB,JNK,HYG,PHB,EFA,VEU,IEF,TLT,GSG,DBC,DBA,CFT,BWX,MBB,BND,MUB,SHV,AGG,
- United Airlines Upgrades their 401K Plan
11/13/2010
We recently published a summary of the United Airlines 401K plan. Subsequent to this, United Airlines informed us that they have upgraded their plan in October 2010 and we now review the new plan.
The upgraded plan has 21 funds --little changed in number. These funds enable participants to gain exposure to 3 major assets: US Equity, Foreign Equity, Fixed Income -- again the same as the last plan.We will compare the old and new funds as they both have similar composition.
Asset Class New Plan Old Plan U.S. Equity Excluding Company Stock 6 6 International Equity 2 2 Balanced Funds 3 4 Fixed Income 4 3 Target Date 5 6
As of Nov 11, 2010, the new plan's investment choice is rated as above average based on MyPlanIQ Plan Rating methodology that was designed to measure how effective a plan's available investment funds are.Plan Rating Attribute New Plan Old Plan Diversification 77% 43% Fund Quality 86% 20% Portfolio Building 76% 42% Overall Rating 79% 35%
This is a significant jump across the board without introducing a lot more funds. The key reasons for the improvement are:- US and international equities have large, medium and small cap alternatives whereas previously it was just large cap stock
- The fixed income choices are higher quality
This should be a well performing three asset class plan.
Performance chart (as of Nov 10, 2010)
Performance table (as of Nov 10, 2010)
Portfolio Name 1Yr AR 1Yr Sharpe 3Yr AR 3Yr Sharpe 5Yr AR 5Yr Sharpe United Airlines Flight Attendant 401(k) Plan Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 6% 53% 6% 67% 9% 92% United Airlines Flight Attendant 401(k) Plan Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 8% 89% 0% -0% 5% 29% United Airline 401K Plan 2010 Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 8% 92% 6% 78% 10% 114% United Airline 401K Plan 2010 Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 12% 123% 3% 23% 8% 57%
If we now compare this to the Kellogg plan as we did in the last article:
Performance chart (as of Nov 11, 2010)Performance table (as of Nov 11, 2010)
Portfolio Name 1Yr AR 1Yr Sharpe 3Yr AR 3Yr Sharpe 5Yr AR 5Yr Sharpe United Airline 401K Plan 2010 Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 8% 92% 6% 78% 10% 114% United Airline 401K Plan 2010 Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 12% 123% 3% 23% 8% 57% Kellogg 401k Plan Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 2% 19% 4% 45% 8% 72% Kellogg 401k Plan Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 13% 100% 3% 16% 8% 43% We can see that the United Plan now nudges ahead of the Kellog plan in terms of risk adjusted returns over the last five years.
Kudos to United in recognizing that their 401K plan needed to be improved and providing a free upgrade for its employees.
labels:investment,
Symbols:AGG,AOK,AOM,BIV,BND,CIU,DLN,DRF,EFA,ELG,ELV,GWL,IEI,IPF,ITE,IVE,IVV,IVW,IWV,IWW,IWZ,IYF,IYY,JKE,JKF,K,PFA,PFI,PLK,PWV,QQQQ,RPG,RPV,RSP,RYF,SCHG,SCHV,SCHX,SHV,SHY,SPY,TZD,TZE,TZI,TZO,UAUA,USY,VEU,VFH,VGIT,VGSH,VTI,VTV,VUG,VV,
- High Dividend Stock ETFs for Income Producing Portfolios
11/12/2010
We are initiating coverage on dividend producing ETF's in a number of different asset classes or styles. ETFs for high dividend stocks can be used to represent their corresponding equity classes in asset allocation. It is thus important to monitor their trends to gain insights into the funds to build a high performamce portfolio with the goal of providing income as well as growth. Fixed income (bond) trend is covered in a separate weekly report.
More details are available on the MyPlanIQ website.
DescriptionSymbol
8-Nov Trend Score
Direction
iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate
IYR
16%
First Week
SPDR DJ Wilshire Intl Real Estate
RWX
15%
First Week
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index
EEM
15%
First Week
PowerShares Intl Dividend Achievers
PID
11%
First Week
iShares Dow Jones Intl Select Div Idx
IDV
11%
First Week
PowerShares HighYield Dividend Achievers
PEY
10%
First Week
iShares MSCI EAFE Index
EFA
9%
First Week
SPDR S&P 500
SPY
9%
First Week
SPDR S&P Dividend
SDY
9%
First Week
iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index
PFF
9%
First Week
iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index
DVY
9%
First Week
First Trust Value Line Dividend Index
FVD
8%
First Week
Vanguard High Dividend Yield Indx
VYM
8%
First Week
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation
VIG
8%
First Week
Despite the perception that real estate is a toxic asset, real estate trusts internationally and domestically continue to deliver strong results.
Emerging markets are also doing well as exports recover although the weakness of the dollar is a concern to many.
U.S. equity dividend stock ETFs have had similar performance. They under performed foreign dividend ETFs mostly due to dollar weakness. Their performance are all pointing to an up trend.
It is also noteworthy that U.S. dividend ETFs have similar returns as broad base indices such as s&P 500 while in the meantime, international dividend ETFs out perform their benchmark (MSCI EAFE Index).labels:investment,
Symbols:IYR,RWX,EEM,PID,IDV,PEY,EFA,SPY,SDY,PFF,DVY,FVD,VYM,VIG,
- Retirement Income Portfolio Building Using ETFs and Asset Allocation Strategies
11/12/2010
- ETFs Provide Insight Into U.S. Sectors' Performance
11/12/2010
- United Airlines 401K Flies Above the ETF Benchmark, But Below Kellogg
11/12/2010
- International ETF's Give Insight on Global Economies
11/10/2010
- ETF Based Major Asset Class Trend Indicators For The Week of November 8
11/08/2010
- How Plan Rating Stack up Against ETF Portfolios Returns -- Part 3
11/03/2010
- How Plan Rating Stack up Against ETF Portfolios Returns -- Part 2
11/02/2010
- New York Times -- How Plan Rating Stack up Against ETF Portfolios -- Part 1
11/02/2010
- Kellogg 401K beats a 3 Asset Class ETF portfolio -- Can't beat the 4 asset class ETF portfolio
11/02/2010
- Top Tier ETF Broker Finalists
10/28/2010
- Ford Motor Company 401K Plan: Diversified and High Quality
10/24/2010
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10/19/2010
- Apple 401K: A Great Company with an Average Retirement Plan
10/19/2010
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10/19/2010
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10/09/2010
- Aflac Incorporated 401(k) Savings and Profit Sharing Plan Report On 12/03/2010
12/03/2010
This report reviews Aflac Incorporated 401(k) Savings and Profit Sharing Plan plan. We will discuss the investment choices and present the plan rating by MyPlanIQ. Current economic and market conditions are discussed in the context of the investment portfolios in the plan. We will then show how participants in Aflac Incorporated 401(k) Savings and Profit Sharing Plan can achieve reasonable investment results using asset allocation strategies.
Plan Review and Rating
AFLAC Inc (Ticker:AFL) has the "Aflac Incorporated 401(k) Savings and Profit Sharing Plan".
Aflac Incorporated 401(k) Savings and Profit Sharing Plan's 401K plan consists of 11 funds. These funds enable participants to gain exposure to 3 major assets: US Equity, Foreign Equity, Fixed Income. The list of minor asset classes covered:
Foreign Large Blend: EFA, VEU, GWL, PFA
Intermediate-term Bond: AGG, CIU, BIV, BND
Large Blend: IVV, IYY, IWV, VTI, VV, SPY, DLN, RSP, SCHX
Large Growth: IVW, IWZ, JKE, VUG, ELG, QQQQ, RPG, SCHG
Large Value: IVE, IWW, JKF, VTV, ELV, PWV, RPV, SCHV
Mid-cap Growth: IJK, IWP, VOT, EMG, PWJ, RFG, UKW
Moderate Allocation: AOM
Small Growth: IJT, IWO, JKK, VBK, DSG, PWT, RZG, UKK
As of Dec 2, 2010, this plan investment choice is rated as based on MyPlanIQ Plan Rating methodology that measures the effectiveness of a plan's available investment funds. It has the following detailed ratings:
Diversification -- Rated as (35%)
Fund Quality -- Rated as (33%)
Portfolio Building -- Rated as (36%)
Overall Rating: (35%)Current Economic and Market Conditions
We have experienced an uncertain 2010: plenty of worries on whether the US economy will climb out of the great recession and recover.
- The Federal Reserve embarked on Quantitative Easing II (QE2) to stimulate the economy.
- The housing market is still at its low but largely stabilized.
- The unemployment rate is stuck at 9%.
Americans continue to face an uncertain future, given (among others) the high unemployment rate, large federal and local government debts and global trade imbalance. With such an economic backdrop, the stock and debt markets are going to be volatile. Despite this, markets have been resilient and appear positioned to rebound.
In this market it is even more critical to properly diversify and respond market changes. MyPlanIQ offers two asset allocation strategies: strategic and tactical asset allocation strategies ( SAA and TAA for participants in Aflac Incorporated 401(k) Savings and Profit Sharing Plan).
Strategic Asset Allocation is based on well known modern portfolio theory and its key features include: diversification, proper fund selection and periodically re-balancing.
Tactical Asset Allocation works on a diversified array of assets provided by funds in a plan and adjusts asset mixes based on market conditions such as asset price momentum utilized by TAA.
Portfolio Discussions
The chart and table below show the historical performance of moderate model portfolios employing strategic and tactical asset allocation strategies. For comparison purpose, we also include the moderate model portfolios of a typical 3 asset SIB (Simpler Is Better) plan . This SIB plan has the following candidate index funds and their ETFs equivalent:
US Equity: (SPY or VTI)
Foreign Equity: (EFA or VEU)
Fixed Income: (AGG or BND)
Performance chart (as of Dec 2, 2010)Performance table (as of Dec 2, 2010)
Portfolio Name 1Yr AR 1Yr Sharpe 3Yr AR 3Yr Sharpe 5Yr AR 5Yr Sharpe Aflac Incorporated 401(k) Savings and Profit Sharing Plan Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 4% 34% 5% 64% 8% 81% Aflac Incorporated 401(k) Savings and Profit Sharing Plan Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 10% 100% 2% 8% 6% 31% Three Core Asset ETF Index Funds Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate -4% -35% 1% 9% 4% 27% Three Core Asset ETF Index Funds Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 9% 60% -0% -3% 4% 13% Currently, asset classes in US Equity (SPY,VTI), Foreign Equity (EFA,VEU) and Fixed Income (AGG,BND) are doing relatively well. These asset classes are available to Aflac Incorporated 401(k) Savings and Profit Sharing Plan participants.
To summarize, Aflac Incorporated 401(k) Savings and Profit Sharing Plan plan participants can achieve reasonable investment returns by adopting asset allocation strategies that are tailored to their risk profiles.
Symbols: AFL , SPY , VTI , EFA , VEU , AGG , BND , AOM , CIU , BIV , GWL , PFA , IVE , IWW , JKF , VTV , ELV , PWV , RPV , SCHV , IVV , IYY , IWV , VV , DLN , RSP , SCHX , IVW , IWZ , JKE , VUG , ELG , QQQQ , RPG , SCHG , IJK , IWP , VOT , EMG , PWJ , RFG , UKW , IJT , IWO , JKK , VBK , DSG , PWT , RZG , UKK
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