Vanguard ETF: | 7.4%* | ||
Diversified Core: | 8.1%* | ||
Six Core Asset ETFs: | 7.3%* |
Articles on tip
- TD Ameritrade Commission Free ETF’s Empowers Both Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation
10/19/2010
The recent news that TD Ameritrade are providing over 100 ETF’s commission free is a perfect fit for a retirement portfolio. Investors are able to trade once a month and pick from a wide range of ETF’s without incurring any trading fees. Combine this with an IRA where the tax consequences of trading are removed and you have an almost ideal scenario and back tested returns demonstrate the point.
There is a continuing dilemma between wanting to increase returns while mitigating downside risk against the perceived risk of adopting a tactical asset allocation strategy. It is clear that tactical asset allocation consistently delivers higher returns at a lower risk. At the same time many are uncomfortable moving away from buy and hold which has been the mantra over the past twenty years.
In a previous article we introduced the notion of a core-satellite portfolio where the assets are split between tactical and strategic asset allocation strategies as a way of introducing tactical asset allocation in a step-by-step fashion.
TD Ameritrade making so many ETF’s available commission free allows another alternative to be considered and that is maintaining classic strategic asset allocation – i.e. all asset classes are fully represented at all times but with so many funds in each class, use fund momentum to rotate styles such that the funds in each asset class are regularly optimized.
CategoryJan-08Jan-09Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10US EquitiesIWNVUG, MGKIWNVIGIWSVOInternational EquitiesEWJEWGEWJEWAAAXJAAXJEmerging MarketsEWZEWZEWZILFVWOVWOReal EstateVNQVNQVNQVNQVNQVNQCommoditiesDBCDBCDBCDBCDBCDBCBalanced FundAOKAOKAOKAOKAOKFixed IncomeSHY, WIP, JNKSHM, BWXSHY, WIP, JNKVCSH, BWX, JNKCASH, AGG, JNKCASH, AGG, JNKWe used the MyPlanIQ system to build and monitor a moderate risk (40% fixed income) strategic asset allocation portfolio. With five risk based asset classes, each of those classes would have 12% of the assets dedicated to them but the funds would be evaluated every month and the optimal fund selected based on the momentum within the class.
This can be compared with a Six asset SIB for which there is just one fund in each asset class.
From the performance chart, it is clear that there is increased upside potential from being able to switch funds within an asset class. Unfortunately, there is less ability to minimize downside risk when an asset class is under downward pressure.Despite this, for those who want to stay with a buy and hold in terms of asset classes, using this approach can squeeze some extra returns from the strategy.
With the large number of funds in six asset classes, momentum based asset allocation can be seen in its best light.
Portfolio Performance ComparisonPortfolio Name1Yr AR1Yr Sharpe3Yr AR3Yr Sharpe5Yr AR5Yr Sharpe13%87%13%86%20%128%10%83%-1%-6%9%46%11%93%1%5%8%40%Takeaways- ETF’s provide the basis for an outstanding portfolio with either strategic or tactical asset allocation. This is clearly demonstrated with TD’s wide range of commission free funds
- Using a web based application takes a lot of the effort from finding the best funds for either strategy
- Strategic asset allocation with styles rotation can deliver solid results using a well trusted strategy
- Tactical asset allocation greatly benefits from the large number of funds
labels:investment,
Symbols:GSG,DBC,AOK,EEM,GMM,PXH,DEM,SCHE,PCY,VTI,VT,IEV,VGK,PEF,DEB,EFA,VEU,GWL,PFA,EFG,EFV,PID,DWM,IFSM,VSS,SCHC,SCZ,IFGL,RWX,HYG,JNK,PHB,TIP,IEI,VGIT,ITE,AGG,CIU,BIV,BND,EWJ,JPP,PJO,DXJ,IVV,IYY,IWV,VV,SPY,DLN,RSP,SCHX,IVW,IWZ,JKE,VUG,ELG,QQQQ,RPG,SCHG,IVE,IWW,Commission,Free,ETFs,Strategic,Asset,Allocation,Tactical,Asset,Allocation,Asset,Allocation,styles,rotation,
- Bernstein's No Brainer and Smart Money Portfolios Reviewed
10/08/2010
Dr. William Bernstein is the author of the "Intelligent Asset Allocator" and "The Four Pillars of Investing." He's also a physician, neurologist and financial adviser to high-net-worth individuals.
He has proposed a number of lazy portfolios. There are two that will be examined today.The no-brainer portfolio comprises the following fund allocation- 25% in Vanguard 500 Index VFINX (IVW)
- 25% in Vanguard Small Cap NAESX or VTMSX (VB)
- 25% in Vanguard Total International VGTSX or VTMGX (EFA, VEA)
- 25% in Vanguard Total Bond VBMFX or VBISX (BND)
Things to note about the portfolio:- Heavily weighted towards domestic equities
- Similar to a three asset SIB with domestic, international and fixed income
- It would be better to have some REIT or emerging markets exposure
- We will compare the no brainer portfolio to a three and four asset SIB
Annual returns 1 year 3 years 5 years Bernstein No Brainer 10 -1 4 Bernstein Tactical Asset Allocation -3 0 6 Four SIB Strategic Asset Allocation 14 -1 5 Three SIB Strategic Asset Allocation 8 -4 4 Three SIB Tactical Asset Allocation -5 0 6 The Bernstein no-brainer tracks very closely with the four asset SIB. It’s interesting to note that the three asset Bernstein tracks closer to the four asset SIB than expected. So as a lazy portfolio, it performs satisfactorily. Year to date, however, the four asset SIB has better performance.
The tactical asset allocation strategies deliver better results with higher returns and lower volatility. The no brainer funds outperform the 3 asset SIB but underperform the 4 asset SIB which is to be expected.
The smart money portfolio comprises the following fund allocation- 40% Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade VFSTX (SCJ, SHY)
- 15% Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX (VTI)
- 10% Vanguard Small Cap Value VISVX (VBR)
- 10% Vanguard Value Index VIVAX (VTV)
- 5% Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock VEIEX (VWO)
- 5% Vanguard European Stock VEURX (VEU)
- 5% Vanguard Pacific Stock VPACX (VPL)
- 5% Vanguard REIT Index VGSIX (RWX, VNQ)
- 5% Vanguard Small Cap Value NAESX or VTMSX (VB)
To summarize:- 40% in US equities
- 10% in international equities
- 5% in emerging market equities
- 5% in REIT
- 40% in fixed income
Annual returns 1 year 3 years 5 years Smart Money 10 -1 4 Smart Money Tactical Asset Allocation -3 0 6 Five SIB Strategic Asset Allocation 14 -1 5 Five SIB Tactical Asset Allocation 8 -4 4 Four SIB Tactical Asset Allocation -5 0 6 Although the smart money portfolio has five asset classes, international, emerging markets and real estate are so under-weighted that they act as if they are a single class so, again, it’s more like a three asset class portfolio. The five asset SIB with strategic asset allocation has similar behavioral properties but clearly delivers better results based on superior diversification.
One the strategy is moved over to tactical asset allocation, there are enough asset classes in the Bernstein portfolio for the Larger Chartresults to be clearly superior than a four asset SIB and close to the five asset SIBWe look at the two portfolios as a final comparison
Annual returns 1 year 3 years 5 years Bernstein No Brainer 10 -1 4 Bernstein Smart Money 10 -1 4 They are remarkably close to each other full comparison
Takeaways- Tactical Asset Allocation reduces downside risk and that wins in the current uncertain environment
- Both Bernstein portfolios perform satisfactorily for a lazy portfolio – it is surprising that the no-brainer performs so well against it’s more diversified smart-money cousin
- ETF’s can readily be used to implement these portfolios with good performance
labels:investment,
Symbols:BND,BWX,CIU,CSJ,DBC,DVY,EFA,EFG,EFV,EMB,GLD,HYG,IEF,IEI,IJJ,IJK,LQD,MBB,QQQQ,RWX,SCZ,SHY,TIP,VB,VBK,VBR,VEA,VNQ,VO,VTI,VTV,VUG,VWO,WIP,Portfolio-Building,with,ETFs,Closed-End,Funds,Commodity,ETFs,Currency,ETFs,Developed,Market,ETFs,
- Diversification, Style AND Asset Rotation Improve Portfolio Performance without Incurring Extra Risk
10/08/2010
In a previous article we compared the results of a highly diversified ETF portfolio with strategic asset allocation that permitted style rotation against strategic asset allocation without style rotation. We did this by restricting the other portfolios to one fund per asset class. We saw that style rotation squeezes out a little more in return for more trading. Putting this together with a “one-click” execution capability that Folio Investing offers offsets some of the effort.
Annual returns 1 year 3 years 5 years Folio SAA Moderate 12.43 3.26 8.15 6 SIB ETF SAA Moderate 11.53 2.51 7.89 6 SIB Index SAA Moderate 10.63 1.66 6.72 5 SIB Index SAA Moderate 12.44 2.16 7.00
In this article, we are going to step up to the next level and take the same portfolio and deploy strategic asset allocation – allowing the portfolio to flow with asset momentum and review what additional risk adjusted returns are delivered.
Strategic Asset Allocation will move funds in asset classes but each asset class will always have the same weighting in the overall portfolio.
Tactical Asset Allocation takes this one step further, enabling asset classes with poor market momentum to be swapped out for another class. Note that fixed income will never be swapped out but may have an increased percentage of the overall portfolio in turbulent times. This approach seeks to limit the downside while participating in the upside.
Intuitively we would expect higher returns offset against more trading activity.We are going to compare the Folio SAA moderate that delivered the best performance in the SAA category with a tactical asset allocation of the same portfolio and a 6 Asset SIB with both ETF’s and Index funds. This will enable us to compare- Tactical versus strategic asset allocation
- The benefit of multiple ETF’s per class versus a single ETF per class
- How ETF’s compare against market indices.
A snapshot of the results graph is shown above with summary data in the table below.
Returns Table of the Different Portfolios
Annual returns 1 year 3 years 5 years Folio SAA Moderate 12.43 3.26 8.15 Folio TAA Moderate 11.74 9.24 11.26 6SIBETF TAA Moderate 9.57 9.62 15.68 6SIBIndex TAA Moderate 8.41 9.22 13.43
The first thing to note is that tactical asset allocation performs better by mitigating downside risk. The strategic asset allocation has performed well as we recover from the sharp drops of recent years but with continuing uncertainty, minimizing downside risk. Again, the benefit of having one-click execution relieves much of the mechanical overhead in pursuing a tactical asset allocation strategy.It is also interesting to note that in this simulation, the best performance comes from the six asset class SIB with fewer fund choices than the Folio portfolio. The reason is that the Folio portfolio used more conservative bond choices that limited the downside but also, slightly reduced the upside. This is a tradeoff that each investor has to make as to whether they want to limit the risk at the cost of a little bit of upside.
Finally, both ETF portfolios perform very well against market index funds.Takeaways- Tactical Asset Allocation reduces downside risk and that wins in the current uncertain environment
- ETF’s perform very well against market index funds in both tactical and strategic asset allocation strategies
- Having a simple and low means of executing the trades is an essential part of a hybrid approach to make it easy on the investor
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Symbols:BND,BWX,CIU,CSJ,DBC,DVY,EFA,EFG,EFV,EMB,GLD,HYG,IEF,IEI,IJJ,IJK,LQD,MBB,QQQQ,RWX,SCZ,SHY,TIP,VB,VBK,VBR,VEA,VNQ,VO,VTI,VTV,VUG,VWO,WIP,Portfolio-Building,with,ETFs,Closed-End,Funds,Commodity,ETFs,Currency,ETFs,Developed,Market,ETFs,
- Three Asset Class Lazy Portfolios Reviewed
09/29/2010
Three luminaries presented three very similar (two identical) lazy portfolios.- Bill Schulthe, a former Smith Barney broker and author of "The Coffeehouse Investor
- Andrew Tobias, a Harvard alum and writer of 12 books including The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need.
- Scott Burns has covered personal finance and investments for nearly 40 years and ranks as one of the most widely read personal finance writers in the country
Bill Schultheis' Coffeehouse Portfolios% Allocation Description Ticker ETF 34% Total US Equities VTSMX VTI 33% Total International Equities VGTSX VEU 33% Total Bond Market VBMFX BND Scott Burns' Margarita
% Allocation Description Ticker ETF 34% Total US Equities VTSMX VTI 33% Total International Equities VGTSX VEU 33% Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund VIPSX TIP Tobias’ 3 Fund Portfolio
% Allocation Description Ticker ETF 34% Total US Equities VTSMX VTI 33% Total International Equities VGTSX VEU 33% Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund VIPSX TIP These are all easy to understand and easy to follow portfolios. They only require annual rebalancing and so it is not onerous to build and manage this portfolio.
Note that Tobias and Burns portfolios are identical so we combine them henceforth.
We will test the results in three dimensions:
Firstly, how does performance compare with a buy and hold strategy for a similar portfolio with monthly rebalancing. For this, we will compare the two portfolios against a 3 asset SIB and measure results.
From this graph, it is clear that the portfolios have similar performance although the lazy portfolios perform slightly better than the monthly rebalancing. This is consistent with other research that says too frequent rebalancing can limit returns. All the portfolios suffer from the big drop around 2008/2009.
Secondly, what impact does adding asset classes have on performance. Three asset classes would be considered insufficient diversification today and we will compare it with a 6 asset SIB with strategic asset allocation.
Here we can clearly see the benefits of adding extra asset classes. Note that the 6SIB portfolio was rebalanced monthly so there is probably more juice that can be extracted from this portfolio. This is not surprising and if you are looking to invest for the long term and rebalance infrequently, having the extra asset classes is not onerous and delivers significant benefit.The final test is to compare strategic and tactical asset allocation. For this test we will compare the lazy portfolios with a 3 asset SIB with tactical asset allocation, we will also include a 6asset SIB with tactical asset allocation to see what best in class performance looks like.As the lazy portfolios have similar performance characteristics, we have removed one of them to make the graph easier to understand. To get more details, use the full graph.
Tactical asset allocation clearly delivers superior results. While it may not get the highest returns in bull markets, it limits the downturn in bear markets and reduces losses and personal stress. The tactical portfolios are altered monthly so there is extra effort required but the returns are worth it.Results of the Three and Six Asset Class Portfolios with SAA and TAA Annual Returns 1 year 3 Years 5 Years Tobias/Burns 7.4 -1.69 3.5 Schulthe 6.78 -2.34 3.87 3 SIB SAA 7.4 -1.69 3.5 3 SIB TAA -2.86 0.67 4.14 6 SIB SAA 10.63 1.66 6.72 6 SIB TAA 9.0 10.0 13.0
Takeaways- If you want a lazy portfolio, go for five or six asset classes – you won’t rebalance that often so having the extra classes isn’t a big overhead
- If you want to maximize returns, look for tactical asset allocation – it may be a compromise to have four or five asset classes with tactical asset allocation – historically that has delivered higher returns that buy and hold
- Consider using an on-line broker that allows on-click execution of trades at a fixed price – that makes the time and cost overhead low.
labels:investment,
Symbols:TIP,VTI,SPY,IWM,BND,AGG,DBC,EEM,EFA,GSG,IYR,LQD,SHY,TLT,ETF,ETF,Portfolio,Building,Asset,Allocation,Bonds,Dollar/Currencies,Earnings,Economy,Hedge,Funds,
- John Wasik’s Nano Portfolio Performance Scrutinized
09/14/2010
John Wasik has been a professional journalist and author for 30 years specializing in personal finance, the environment, investing and social issues. John has proposed a Nano plan investment portfolio which employs just a handful of index or exchange- traded funds (ETFs) to cover virtually the entire world of bond and stock markets. This portfolio is supposed to be rebalanced annually.
John Wasik presents a classic asset allocation strategy with simple buy and hold.
- 20% in Vanguard Total Stock Market VIPERS (VTI) – alternatives: SPY, IWM
- 20% in Vanguard Total International (VGTSX) – alternatives: EFA, VEU, EEM, VWO, ADRE
- 20% in Vanguard REIT VIPERS (VNQ) – alternatives: IYR, ICF
- 20% in iShares Lehman TIPS Bond (TIP)
- 20% in iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG) – alternative: BND
Things to note about the portfolio:- With 40% in fixed income, this would be considered moderate risk
- With VGTSX covering both international and emerging markets (albeit in one fund) this would be something between a 4 and 5 asset class portfolio
- VGTSX is not an ETF; while VGTSX can easily be replaced by VEU (Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF) we will keep VGTSX because it has a longer history for back testing
We will make a comparison of the performance of this portfolio with
- Rebalancing every month as opposed to every year
- Simpler Is Better (SIB) portfolios we discussed in a previous article,
- Tactically managing the portfolio
The first set of results compares strategic asset allocation performance. What we note is:
- All portfolios suffer from the sharp downturn and is what is driving the increasing move towards a tactical allocation strategy
- The lazy portfolio – rebalancing once a year performs as well as the monthly rebalancing
- Wasik’s portfolio performance matches the 4 Asset SIB closely
- The extra asset class in the 5 asset SIB enables it to outperform everything else
Wasik's portfolio against SIBs Annualized Returns 1 year 3 years 5 years Wasik original 16,75 1.22 5.03 Wasik monthly rebalance 16,27 0.18 4.39 4 SIB SAA 15.11 1.08 4.37 5 SIB SAA 15 2.35 6.33
The second set of results compares tactical asset allocation performance. What we note is:- The tactical asset allocation strategies clearly mitigate the downturn
- Wasik’s portfolio performance matches the 4 Asset SIB closely when tactical asset allocation strategies are applied to both
- The extra asset class in the 5 asset SIB enables it to outperform everything else
Annualized Returns 1 year 3 years 5 years Wasik TAA 16.53 8.47 10.43 4 SIB TAA 15.67 6.65 9.04 5 SIB TAA 12.62 8.13 11.35
Takeaways:- ETF’s are a good vehicle for any portfolio and with increasing track record, it’s possible to demonstrate good historical performance
- It is increasingly clear that deploying a tactical asset allocation strategy is key. All buy and hold strategies are going to suffer the same downturn properties and with choppy market conditions, minimizing downside risk is critical
- With a buy and hold, there is little difference between monthly or annual rebalancing so you can be very lazy if you don’t mind the downside!
- Five asset classes perform better in all cases – in the TAA case, the five asset SIB gives you an extra 6% a year since inception – doubling the asset base every decade
labels:investments,
Symbols:ti,vnq,tip,agg,veu,spy,iwm,efa,iyr,icf,bnd,eem,vwo,adre,
- Practical and Effective ETF Based 401K Plan
07/29/2010
- Investing with Styles Can Pay off
07/09/2010
- Apartment Investment and Management Company 401(k) Retirement Plan Report On 12/03/2010
12/03/2010
This report reviews Apartment Investment and Management Company 401(k) Retirement Plan plan. We will discuss the investment choices and present the plan rating by MyPlanIQ. Current economic and market conditions are discussed in the context of the investment portfolios in the plan. We will then show how participants in Apartment Investment and Management Company 401(k) Retirement Plan can achieve reasonable investment results using asset allocation strategies.
Plan Review and Rating
Apartment Investment and Management Company 401(k) Retirement Plan's 401K plan consists of 22 funds. These funds enable participants to gain exposure to 4 major assets: US Equity, Foreign Equity, REITs, Fixed Income. The list of minor asset classes covered:
Foreign Large Growth: EFG
Inflation-protected Bond: TIP
Intermediate-term Bond: AGG, CIU, BIV, BND
Large Blend: IVV, IYY, IWV, VTI, VV, SPY, DLN, RSP, SCHX
Large Growth: IVW, IWZ, JKE, VUG, ELG, QQQQ, RPG, SCHG
Large Value: IVE, IWW, JKF, VTV, ELV, PWV, RPV, SCHV
Mid-cap Blend: IJH, IWR, JKG, VO, MDY, EMM, PJG, DON, EZM, MVV
Real Estate: IYR, ICF, VNQ
Retirement Income:
Small Blend: IJR, IWM, JKJ, VB, DSC, PJM, DES, SAA, UWM, SCHA
Small Growth: IJT, IWO, JKK, VBK, DSG, PWT, RZG, UKK
Small Value: IJS, IWN, JKL, VBR, DSV, PWY, RZV, UVT
Target Date 2000-2010: TZD
Target Date 2016-2020: TZG
Target Date 2026-2030: TZL
Target Date 2036-2040: TZV
Target Date 2050+:
As of Dec 2, 2010, this plan investment choice is rated as based on MyPlanIQ Plan Rating methodology that measures the effectiveness of a plan's available investment funds. It has the following detailed ratings:
Diversification -- Rated as (76%)
Fund Quality -- Rated as (36%)
Portfolio Building -- Rated as (87%)
Overall Rating: (68%)Current Economic and Market Conditions
We have experienced an uncertain 2010: plenty of worries on whether the US economy will climb out of the great recession and recover.
- The Federal Reserve embarked on Quantitative Easing II (QE2) to stimulate the economy.
- The housing market is still at its low but largely stabilized.
- The unemployment rate is stuck at 9%.
Americans continue to face an uncertain future, given (among others) the high unemployment rate, large federal and local government debts and global trade imbalance. With such an economic backdrop, the stock and debt markets are going to be volatile. Despite this, markets have been resilient and appear positioned to rebound.
In this market it is even more critical to properly diversify and respond market changes. MyPlanIQ offers two asset allocation strategies: strategic and tactical asset allocation strategies ( SAA and TAA for participants in Apartment Investment and Management Company 401(k) Retirement Plan).
Strategic Asset Allocation is based on well known modern portfolio theory and its key features include: diversification, proper fund selection and periodically re-balancing.
Tactical Asset Allocation works on a diversified array of assets provided by funds in a plan and adjusts asset mixes based on market conditions such as asset price momentum utilized by TAA.
Portfolio Discussions
The chart and table below show the historical performance of moderate model portfolios employing strategic and tactical asset allocation strategies. For comparison purpose, we also include the moderate model portfolios of a typical 4 asset SIB (Simpler Is Better) plan . This SIB plan has the following candidate index funds and their ETFs equivalent:
US Equity: (SPY or VTI)
Foreign Equity: (EFA or VEU)
REITs: (IYR or VNQ or ICF)
Fixed Income: (AGG or BND)
Performance chart (as of Dec 2, 2010)Performance table (as of Dec 2, 2010)
Portfolio Name 1Yr AR 1Yr Sharpe 3Yr AR 3Yr Sharpe 5Yr AR 5Yr Sharpe Apartment Investment and Management Company 401(k) Retirement Plan Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 15% 97% 10% 84% 12% 98% Apartment Investment and Management Company 401(k) Retirement Plan Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 13% 120% 4% 19% 6% 30% Four Core Asset Index Funds REITs Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 8% 58% 6% 54% 9% 80% Four Core Asset Index Funds REITs Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 11% 87% 2% 6% 5% 20% Currently, asset classes in US Equity (SPY,VTI), Foreign Equity (EFA,VEU) and REITs (IYR,VNQ,ICF) are doing relatively well. These asset classes are available to Apartment Investment and Management Company 401(k) Retirement Plan participants.
To summarize, Apartment Investment and Management Company 401(k) Retirement Plan plan participants can achieve reasonable investment returns by adopting asset allocation strategies that are tailored to their risk profiles.
Symbols: AIV , SPY , VTI , EFA , VEU , IYR , VNQ , ICF , AGG , BND , CIU , BIV , EFG , IVE , IWW , JKF , VTV , ELV , PWV , RPV , SCHV , TZD , TZG , TZL , TZV , IVV , IYY , IWV , VV , DLN , RSP , SCHX , IVW , IWZ , JKE , VUG , ELG , QQQQ , RPG , SCHG , IJH , IWR , JKG , VO , MDY , EMM , PJG , DON , EZM , MVV , IJS , IWN , JKL , VBR , DSV , PWY , RZV , UVT , IJR , IWM , JKJ , VB , DSC , PJM , DES , SAA , UWM , SCHA , IJT , IWO , JKK , VBK , DSG , PWT , RZG , UKK , TIP
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