10/19/2010

The recent news that TD Ameritrade are providing over 100 ETF’s commission free is a perfect fit for a retirement portfolio. Investors are able to trade once a month and pick from a wide range of ETF’s without incurring any trading fees. Combine this with an IRA where the tax consequences of trading are removed and you have an almost ideal scenario and back tested returns demonstrate the point.

We used the MyPlanIQ system to build and monitor a moderate risk (40% fixed income) strategic asset allocation portfolio. With five risk based asset classes, each of those classes would have 12% of the assets dedicated to them but the funds would be evaluated every month and the optimal fund selected based on the momentum within the class.

This can be compared with a Six asset SIB for which there is just one fund in each asset class.

From the performance chart, it is clear that there is increased upside potential from being able to switch funds within an asset class. Unfortunately, there is less ability to minimize downside risk when an asset class is under downward pressure.

Despite this, for those who want to stay with a buy and hold in terms of asset classes, using this approach can squeeze some extra returns from the strategy.

With the large number of funds in six asset classes, momentum based asset allocation can be seen in its best light.

 
Full Details

• ETF’s provide the basis for an outstanding portfolio with either strategic or tactical asset allocation. This is clearly demonstrated with TD’s wide range of commission free funds
• Using a web based application takes a lot of the effort from finding the best funds for either strategy
• Strategic asset allocation with styles rotation can deliver solid results using a well trusted strategy
• Tactical asset allocation greatly benefits from the large number of funds

labels:investment,

Symbols:GSG,DBC,AOK,EEM,GMM,PXH,DEM,SCHE,PCY,VTI,VT,IEV,VGK,PEF,DEB,EFA,VEU,GWL,PFA,EFG,EFV,PID,DWM,IFSM,VSS,SCHC,SCZ,IFGL,RWX,HYG,JNK,PHB,TIP,IEI,VGIT,ITE,AGG,CIU,BIV,BND,EWJ,JPP,PJO,DXJ,IVV,IYY,IWV,VV,SPY,DLN,RSP,SCHX,IVW,IWZ,JKE,VUG,ELG,QQQQ,RPG,SCHG,IVE,IWW,Commission,Free,ETFs,Strategic,Asset,Allocation,Tactical,Asset,Allocation,Asset,Allocation,styles,rotation,

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10/08/2010

• 25% in Vanguard 500 Index VFINX                                     (IVW)
• 25% in Vanguard Small Cap NAESX or VTMSX                 (VB)
• 25% in Vanguard Total International VGTSX or VTMGX     (EFA, VEA)
• 25% in Vanguard Total Bond VBMFX or VBISX                  (BND)

• Heavily weighted towards domestic equities
• Similar to a three asset SIB with domestic, international and fixed income 
  
• It would be better to have some REIT or emerging markets exposure
• We will compare the no brainer portfolio to a three and four asset SIB

full chart

The Bernstein no-brainer tracks very closely with the four asset SIB. It’s interesting to note that the three asset Bernstein tracks closer to the four asset SIB than expected. So as a lazy portfolio, it performs satisfactorily. Year to date, however, the four asset SIB has better performance. 

• 40% Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade VFSTX                (SCJ, SHY)
• 15% Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX                                  (VTI)
• 10% Vanguard Small Cap Value VISVX                                          (VBR)
• 10% Vanguard Value Index VIVAX                                                (VTV)
• 5% Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock VEIEX                              (VWO)
• 5% Vanguard European Stock VEURX                                           (VEU)
• 5% Vanguard Pacific Stock VPACX                                                (VPL)
• 5% Vanguard REIT Index VGSIX                                                      (RWX, VNQ)
• 5% Vanguard Small Cap Value NAESX or VTMSX                        (VB) 

• 40% in US equities
• 10% in international equities
• 5% in emerging market equities
• 5% in REIT
• 40% in fixed income

 

Although the smart money portfolio has five asset classes, international, emerging markets and real estate are so under-weighted that they act as if they are a single class so, again, it’s more like a three asset class portfolio. The five asset SIB with strategic asset allocation has similar behavioral properties but clearly delivers better results based on superior diversification.

They are remarkably close to each other full comparison

• Tactical Asset Allocation reduces downside risk and that wins in the current uncertain environment
• Both Bernstein portfolios perform satisfactorily for a lazy portfolio – it is surprising that the no-brainer performs so well against it’s more diversified smart-money cousin
• ETF’s can readily be used to implement these portfolios with good performance

labels:investment,

Symbols:BND,BWX,CIU,CSJ,DBC,DVY,EFA,EFG,EFV,EMB,GLD,HYG,IEF,IEI,IJJ,IJK,LQD,MBB,QQQQ,RWX,SCZ,SHY,TIP,VB,VBK,VBR,VEA,VNQ,VO,VTI,VTV,VUG,VWO,WIP,Portfolio-Building,with,ETFs,Closed-End,Funds,Commodity,ETFs,Currency,ETFs,Developed,Market,ETFs,

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10/08/2010

In a previous article we compared the results of a highly diversified ETF portfolio with strategic asset allocation that permitted style rotation against strategic asset allocation without style rotation. We did this by restricting the other portfolios to one fund per asset class. We saw that style rotation squeezes out a little more in return for more trading. Putting this together with a “one-click” execution capability that Folio Investing offers offsets some of the effort.

 A snapshot of the results graph is shown above with summary data in the table below.

A snapshot of the results graph is shown above with summary data in the table below.

 Returns Table of the Different Portfolios

The first thing to note is that tactical asset allocation performs better by mitigating downside risk. The strategic asset allocation has performed well as we recover from the sharp drops of recent years but with continuing uncertainty, minimizing downside risk. Again, the benefit of having one-click execution relieves much of the mechanical overhead in pursuing a tactical asset allocation strategy.

• Tactical Asset Allocation reduces downside risk and that wins in the current uncertain environment
• ETF’s perform very well against market index funds in both tactical and strategic asset allocation strategies
• Having a simple and low means of executing the trades is an essential part of a hybrid approach to make it easy on the investor

labels:investment,

Symbols:BND,BWX,CIU,CSJ,DBC,DVY,EFA,EFG,EFV,EMB,GLD,HYG,IEF,IEI,IJJ,IJK,LQD,MBB,QQQQ,RWX,SCZ,SHY,TIP,VB,VBK,VBR,VEA,VNQ,VO,VTI,VTV,VUG,VWO,WIP,Portfolio-Building,with,ETFs,Closed-End,Funds,Commodity,ETFs,Currency,ETFs,Developed,Market,ETFs,

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09/29/2010

• Bill Schulthe, a former Smith Barney broker and author of "The Coffeehouse Investor
• Andrew Tobias, a Harvard alum and writer of 12 books including The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need.
• Scott Burns has covered personal finance and investments for nearly 40 years and ranks as one of the most widely read personal finance writers in the country

Bill Schultheis' Coffeehouse Portfolios

Scott Burns' Margarita

Tobias’ 3 Fund Portfolio

These are all easy to understand and easy to follow portfolios. They only require annual rebalancing and so it is not onerous to build and manage this portfolio.

Note that Tobias and Burns portfolios are identical so we combine them henceforth.

We will test the results in three dimensions:

Firstly, how does performance compare with a buy and hold strategy for a similar portfolio with monthly rebalancing. For this, we will compare the two portfolios against a 3 asset SIB and measure results.

Secondly, what impact does adding asset classes have on performance. Three asset classes would be considered insufficient diversification today and we will compare it with a 6 asset SIB with strategic asset allocation.

Here we can clearly see the benefits of adding extra asset classes. Note that the 6SIB portfolio was rebalanced monthly so there is probably more juice that can be extracted from this portfolio. This is not surprising and if you are looking to invest for the long term and rebalance infrequently, having the extra asset classes is not onerous and delivers significant benefit.

 

The final test is to compare strategic and tactical asset allocation. For this test we will compare the lazy portfolios with a 3 asset SIB with tactical asset allocation, we will also include a 6asset SIB with tactical asset allocation to see what best in class performance looks like.

 

Takeaways

• If you want a lazy portfolio, go for five or six asset classes – you won’t rebalance that often so having the extra classes isn’t a big overhead
• If you want to maximize returns, look for tactical asset allocation – it may be a compromise to have four or five asset classes with tactical asset allocation – historically that has delivered higher returns that buy and hold
• Consider using an on-line broker that allows on-click execution of trades at a fixed price – that makes the time and cost overhead low. 

labels:investment,

Symbols:TIP,VTI,SPY,IWM,BND,AGG,DBC,EEM,EFA,GSG,IYR,LQD,SHY,TLT,ETF,ETF,Portfolio,Building,Asset,Allocation,Bonds,Dollar/Currencies,Earnings,Economy,Hedge,Funds,

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09/14/2010

John Wasik has been a professional journalist and author for 30 years specializing in personal finance, the environment, investing and social issues. John has proposed a Nano plan investment portfolio which employs just a handful of index or exchange- traded funds (ETFs) to cover virtually the entire world of bond and stock markets. This portfolio is supposed to be rebalanced annually.

John Wasik presents a classic asset allocation strategy with simple buy and hold.

• 20% in Vanguard Total Stock Market VIPERS (VTI) – alternatives: SPY, IWM    
• 20% in Vanguard Total International (VGTSX) – alternatives: EFA, VEU, EEM, VWO, ADRE     
• 20% in Vanguard REIT VIPERS (VNQ) – alternatives: IYR, ICF
• 20% in iShares Lehman TIPS Bond (TIP)    
• 20% in iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG) – alternative: BND

 
Things to note about the portfolio:

• With 40% in fixed income, this would be considered moderate risk
• With VGTSX covering both international and emerging markets (albeit in one fund) this would be something between a 4 and 5 asset class portfolio
• VGTSX is not an ETF; while VGTSX can easily be replaced by VEU (Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF) we will keep VGTSX because it has a longer history for back testing

 We will make a comparison of the performance of this portfolio with

• Rebalancing every month as opposed to every year
• Simpler Is Better (SIB) portfolios we discussed in a previous article,
• Tactically managing the portfolio

 The first set of results compares strategic asset allocation performance. What we note is:

• All portfolios suffer from the sharp downturn and is what is driving the increasing move towards a tactical allocation strategy
• The lazy portfolio – rebalancing once a year performs as well as the monthly rebalancing
• Wasik’s portfolio performance matches the 4 Asset SIB closely
• The extra asset class in the 5 asset SIB enables it to outperform everything else

The second set of results compares tactical asset allocation performance. What we note is:

• The tactical asset allocation strategies clearly mitigate the downturn
• Wasik’s portfolio performance matches the 4 Asset SIB closely when tactical asset allocation strategies are applied to both
• The extra asset class in the 5 asset SIB enables it to outperform everything else

 
Takeaways:

• ETF’s are a good vehicle for any portfolio and with increasing track record, it’s possible to demonstrate good historical performance
• It is increasingly clear that deploying a tactical asset allocation strategy is key. All buy and hold strategies are going to suffer the same downturn properties and with choppy market conditions, minimizing downside risk is critical
• With a buy and hold, there is little difference between monthly or annual rebalancing so you can be very lazy if you don’t mind the downside!
• Five asset classes perform better in all cases – in the TAA case, the five asset SIB gives you an extra 6% a year since inception – doubling the asset base every decade

labels:investments,

Symbols:ti,vnq,tip,agg,veu,spy,iwm,efa,iyr,icf,bnd,eem,vwo,adre,

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07/29/2010

07/09/2010

12/03/2010

This report reviews Apartment Investment and Management Company 401(k) Retirement Plan plan. We will discuss the investment choices and present the plan rating by MyPlanIQ. Current economic and market conditions are discussed in the context of the investment portfolios in the plan. We will then show how participants in Apartment Investment and Management Company 401(k) Retirement Plan can achieve reasonable investment results using asset allocation strategies.

Plan Review and Rating

Apartment Investment and Management Company 401(k) Retirement Plan's 401K plan consists of 22 funds. These funds enable participants to gain exposure to 4 major assets: US Equity, Foreign Equity, REITs, Fixed Income. The list of minor asset classes covered:

Foreign Large Growth: EFG
Inflation-protected Bond: TIP
Intermediate-term Bond: AGG, CIU, BIV, BND
Large Blend: IVV, IYY, IWV, VTI, VV, SPY, DLN, RSP, SCHX
Large Growth: IVW, IWZ, JKE, VUG, ELG, QQQQ, RPG, SCHG
Large Value: IVE, IWW, JKF, VTV, ELV, PWV, RPV, SCHV
Mid-cap Blend: IJH, IWR, JKG, VO, MDY, EMM, PJG, DON, EZM, MVV
Real Estate: IYR, ICF, VNQ
Retirement Income:
Small Blend: IJR, IWM, JKJ, VB, DSC, PJM, DES, SAA, UWM, SCHA
Small Growth: IJT, IWO, JKK, VBK, DSG, PWT, RZG, UKK
Small Value: IJS, IWN, JKL, VBR, DSV, PWY, RZV, UVT
Target Date 2000-2010: TZD
Target Date 2016-2020: TZG
Target Date 2026-2030: TZL
Target Date 2036-2040: TZV
Target Date 2050+:

As of Dec 2, 2010, this plan investment choice is rated as based on MyPlanIQ Plan Rating methodology that measures the effectiveness of a plan's available investment funds. It has the following detailed ratings:

Diversification -- Rated as (76%)
Fund Quality -- Rated as (36%)
Portfolio Building -- Rated as (87%)
Overall Rating: (68%)

Current Economic and Market Conditions

We have experienced an uncertain 2010: plenty of worries on whether the US economy will climb out of the great recession and recover.

• The Federal Reserve embarked on Quantitative Easing II (QE2) to stimulate the economy.
• The housing market is still at its low but largely stabilized.
• The unemployment rate is stuck at 9%.

Americans continue to face an uncertain future, given (among others) the high unemployment rate, large federal and local government debts and global trade imbalance. With such an economic backdrop, the stock and debt markets are going to be volatile. Despite this, markets have been resilient and appear positioned to rebound.

In this market it is even more critical to properly diversify and respond market changes. MyPlanIQ offers two asset allocation strategies: strategic and tactical asset allocation strategies ( SAA and TAA for participants in Apartment Investment and Management Company 401(k) Retirement Plan).

Strategic Asset Allocation is based on well known modern portfolio theory and its key features include: diversification, proper fund selection and periodically re-balancing.

Tactical Asset Allocation works on a diversified array of assets provided by funds in a plan and adjusts asset mixes based on market conditions such as asset price momentum utilized by TAA.

Portfolio Discussions

The chart and table below show the historical performance of moderate model portfolios employing strategic and tactical asset allocation strategies. For comparison purpose, we also include the moderate model portfolios of a typical 4 asset SIB (Simpler Is Better) plan . This SIB plan has the following candidate index funds and their ETFs equivalent:

US Equity: (SPY or VTI)
Foreign Equity: (EFA or VEU)
REITs: (IYR or VNQ or ICF)
Fixed Income: (AGG or BND)

Performance chart (as of Dec 2, 2010)

Performance table (as of Dec 2, 2010)

Currently, asset classes in US Equity (SPY,VTI), Foreign Equity (EFA,VEU) and REITs (IYR,VNQ,ICF) are doing relatively well. These asset classes are available to Apartment Investment and Management Company 401(k) Retirement Plan participants.

To summarize, Apartment Investment and Management Company 401(k) Retirement Plan plan participants can achieve reasonable investment returns by adopting asset allocation strategies that are tailored to their risk profiles.

Symbols: AIV , SPY , VTI , EFA , VEU , IYR , VNQ , ICF , AGG , BND , CIU , BIV , EFG , IVE , IWW , JKF , VTV , ELV , PWV , RPV , SCHV , TZD , TZG , TZL , TZV , IVV , IYY , IWV , VV , DLN , RSP , SCHX , IVW , IWZ , JKE , VUG , ELG , QQQQ , RPG , SCHG , IJH , IWR , JKG , VO , MDY , EMM , PJG , DON , EZM , MVV , IJS , IWN , JKL , VBR , DSV , PWY , RZV , UVT , IJR , IWM , JKJ , VB , DSC , PJM , DES , SAA , UWM , SCHA , IJT , IWO , JKK , VBK , DSG , PWT , RZG , UKK , TIP

12/03/2010

12/03/2010

12/07/2010

06/01/2011

06/02/2011