For all too many reasons, when it comes to Samantha Bee, I am not objective. Still, I found her take on 2016 elections to be hilarious: click for video
The post Sam Bee on the 2016 Elections appeared first on The Big Picture.
One or more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2016 remains a real possibility. Why would the Fed consider such a policy action given the recent collapse in inflation expectations?Over the past couple of months many analysts and the futures markets h…
The post The Evasive Predictive Ability of Core Inflation appeared first on The Big Picture.
Who is Driving the Recent Decline in Consumer Inflation Expectations? Olivier Armantier, Wilbert van der Klaauw, Giorgio Topa, and Basit Zafar The expectations of U.S. consumers about inflation have declined to record lows over the past several months. That is the finding of two leading surveys, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of…Read More
Trend Model signal summaryTrend Model signal: NeutralTrading model: Bearish (downgrade)The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks t…
The limited power of the Draghis and Yellens of the world is evident. They can’t conjure up inflation and the market impact of unorthodox monetary policies has waned. Rate-setters did their bit to…
Source: WSJ
Inflation: Waiting for the Upturn Edward S. Knotek II, Christian Garciga Cleveland Fed 12.07.15 Over the course of the past year there have been concerns about falling long-term inflation expectations. One closely watched measure of inflation expectations comes from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The 2015:Q4 SPF…Read More
Despite new easing measures, the ECB chief’s fight to revive inflation looks doomed. Forces beyond his control, such as oil prices, are too strong. Markets are moving against him. Draghi is admirably…
There has been a steady drumbeat of dissatisfaction about the post-credit-crisis recovery. No matter how much the economy improves, a good number of people insist it hasn’t. Now, in the midst of the political silly season, it has intensified as candidates pander to voters. This is a subject near and dear to me (see this, this, this, this, this, andthis),…Read More
The textbook tradeoff between lower unemployment and higher inflation isn’t happening. Britain’s jobless rate is at its lowest since 2008 yet wage growth is actually slowing. Workers aren’t suffering…
Some European Central Bank policymakers want to push the floor for policy rates deeper into negative territory. This may depress the euro and bond yields for a while. But Nordic evidence of the price…
Source: JPM Quarterly Chart Book
The game of investing would be rather simple if everything moved in a straight line and economic data points could be could be connected with a level ruler. Unfortunately, the real world doesn’t operate that way – data points are actually scattered continuously. In the short-run, inflation, GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, corporate earnings, profit […]
Futures-implied probability of a 2015 rate hike in the United States remains below 40%. Some market participants have all but dismissed this possibility as they look at weak global growth as well as soft inflation and inflation expectations in the US. …
This morning’s must read comes from Ben Carlson, who coincidentally runs our institutional practice. In a longer analysis, Ben dives deep into the differences between managers and management. The differences are simultaneously nuanced yet pronounced: Portfolio Managers: The ability to process investment ideas from a number of different sources. Attention to detail. Knowing when to admit that you’re…Read More
Nicholas Colas, Chief Market Strategist of Convergex, writes a daily preview/analysis for institutional clients. This is a sample of his work; contact info below. ~~~~ The history of the hamburger is lost to the fog of human memory, but culinary historians have pieced together a likely migration path starting with the Mongol Empire and…Read More
Can We Rely on Market-Based Inflation Forecasts? Michael D. Bauer and Erin McCarthy FRBSF Economic Letter, September 21, 2015 A substantial decline in market-based measures of inflation expectations has raised concerns about low future inflation. An important question to address is whether the forecasts based on market information are as accurate…Read More
U.S. Inflation Developments Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming August 29, 2015 I am delighted to be here in Jackson Hole in the company of such distinguished panelists and such a distinguished group of participants. I will focus my remarks today on forces–domestic and international–that…Read More
Diversified Asset Allocation Portfolios For Your Plans
| Vanguard ETF: | 10%* |  |
| Diversified Core: | 11%* | |
| Six Core Asset ETFs: | 10%* | |
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