Bernstein's No Brainer and Smart Money Portfolios Reviewed

10/08/2010 0 comments

Dr. William Bernstein is the author of the "Intelligent Asset Allocator" and "The Four Pillars of Investing." He's also a physician, neurologist and financial adviser to high-net-worth individuals. 
 
He has proposed a number of lazy portfolios. There are two that will be examined today.
 
The smart money portfolio
The no-brainer portfolio
 
The no-brainer portfolio comprises the following fund allocation
  • 25% in Vanguard 500 Index VFINX                                     (IVW)
  • 25% in Vanguard Small Cap NAESX or VTMSX                 (VB)
  • 25% in Vanguard Total International VGTSX or VTMGX     (EFA, VEA)
  • 25% in Vanguard Total Bond VBMFX or VBISX                  (BND)
 
Things to note about the portfolio:
  • Heavily weighted towards domestic equities
  • Similar to a three asset SIB with domestic, international and fixed income 
  • It would be better to have some REIT or emerging markets exposure
  • We will compare the no brainer portfolio to a three and four asset SIB


full chart


Annual returns 1 year 3 years 5 years
Bernstein No Brainer 10 -1 4
Bernstein Tactical Asset Allocation
-3 0 6
Four SIB Strategic Asset Allocation
14 -1 5
Three SIB Strategic Asset Allocation 8 -4 4
Three SIB Tactical Asset Allocation -5 0 6

The Bernstein no-brainer tracks very closely with the four asset SIB. It’s interesting to note that the three asset Bernstein tracks closer to the four asset SIB than expected. So as a lazy portfolio, it performs satisfactorily. Year to date, however, the four asset SIB has better performance. 

The tactical asset allocation strategies deliver better results with higher returns and lower volatility. The no brainer funds outperform the 3 asset SIB but underperform the 4 asset SIB which is to be expected.

 
The smart money portfolio comprises the following fund allocation
  • 40% Vanguard Short Term Investment Grade VFSTX                (SCJ, SHY)
  • 15% Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX                                  (VTI)
  • 10% Vanguard Small Cap Value VISVX                                          (VBR)
  • 10% Vanguard Value Index VIVAX                                                (VTV)
  • 5% Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock VEIEX                              (VWO)
  • 5% Vanguard European Stock VEURX                                           (VEU)
  • 5% Vanguard Pacific Stock VPACX                                                (VPL)
  • 5% Vanguard REIT Index VGSIX                                                      (RWX, VNQ)
  • 5% Vanguard Small Cap Value NAESX or VTMSX                        (VB) 
To summarize:
  • 40% in US equities
  • 10% in international equities
  • 5% in emerging market equities
  • 5% in REIT
  • 40% in fixed income
 

Full comparison

 

Annual returns 1 year 3 years 5 years
Smart Money 10 -1 4
Smart Money Tactical Asset Allocation -3 0 6
Five SIB Strategic Asset Allocation
14 -1 5
Five SIB Tactical Asset Allocation 8 -4 4
Four SIB Tactical Asset Allocation
-5 0 6

Although the smart money portfolio has five asset classes, international, emerging markets and real estate are so under-weighted that they act as if they are a single class so, again, it’s more like a three asset class portfolio. The five asset SIB with strategic asset allocation has similar behavioral properties but clearly delivers better results based on superior diversification.

One the strategy is moved over to tactical asset allocation, there are enough asset classes in the Bernstein portfolio for the Larger Chart
results to be clearly superior than a four asset SIB and close to the five asset SIB
 
We look at the two portfolios as a final comparison
 

Annual returns 1 year 3 years 5 years
Bernstein No Brainer 10 -1 4
Bernstein Smart Money 10 -1 4

They are remarkably close to each other full comparison

Takeaways
  • Tactical Asset Allocation reduces downside risk and that wins in the current uncertain environment
  • Both Bernstein portfolios perform satisfactorily for a lazy portfolio – it is surprising that the no-brainer performs so well against it’s more diversified smart-money cousin
  • ETF’s can readily be used to implement these portfolios with good performance

 

labels:investment,

Symbols:BND,BWX,CIU,CSJ,DBC,DVY,EFA,EFG,EFV,EMB,GLD,HYG,IEF,IEI,IJJ,IJK,LQD,MBB,QQQQ,RWX,SCZ,SHY,TIP,VB,VBK,VBR,VEA,VNQ,VO,VTI,VTV,VUG,VWO,WIP,Portfolio-Building,with,ETFs,Closed-End,Funds,Commodity,ETFs,Currency,ETFs,Developed,Market,ETFs,




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