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  • Top Tier ETF Provider Playoffs

    10/19/2010

    ETF’s continue to broaden their appeal both in terms of flexibility and low cost. With commission free ETF’s, more money stays in the investors pocket rather than disappearing in fees. In addition, while many of these ETF’s have a 30 day minimum hold, this is ideal for long term investing when making changes more often than that can be counter productive.
     
    Four companies offer commission free ETF’s and we are going to compare the offerings in detail to determine which is likely to offer the best value to the investor. 

    In this article we are going to compare Schwab and TD Ameritrade.

    Schwab (Ticker SCHW) is a relative late comer to the ETF party. They offer the fewest ETF’s and the ETF’s have the shortest history. They only provide their own ETF's commission free. However, Schwab has a huge network and powerful brand so we expect Schwab to be a significant player in the market.
     

    Schwab ETF
    NEW Bond ETFs
    Schwab U.S. TIPS ETF™
    Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF™
    Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury ETF™
    Domestic Equity ETFs
    Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF™
    Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF™
    Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF™
    Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF™
    Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF™
    International Equity ETFs
    Schwab International Equity ETF™
    Schwab International Small-Cap Equity ETF™ 
    Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF™ 

     
    Notable properties about the Schwab offering
    • The expense ratios are low
    • There are four asset classes with a good choice of funds
    • We would have liked to have seen more choices with other providers
    • We would have liked to have seen funds with a longer history
    • We would expect real estate to be added before long
    • We would expect more choices in the international and emerging market segments before long
    As most of the funds are very new, it’s impossible to do real back testing with the funds. So we have selected a commission efficient portfolio that includes:

    Asset ClassTickerName
    LARGE VALUE SCHV Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF
    LARGE BLEND SCHX Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF
    LARGE BLEND SCHB Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF
    LARGE GROWTH SCHG Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
    LARGE GROWTH IWF iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index
    SMALL VALUE IJS iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index
    SMALL BLEND SCHA Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF
    Small Growth IJT iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Growth
    Foreign Large Blend SCHF Schwab International Equity ETF
    FOREIGN SMALL/MID GROWTH SCHC Schwab International Small-Cap Eq ETF
    DIVERSIFIED EMERGING MKTS SCHE Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF
    Inflation-Protected Bond TIP iShares Barclays TIPS Bond
    Intermediate Government IEI iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Treasury Bond
    SHORT GOVERNMENT SHY iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond
    Inflation-Protected Bond SCHP Schwab U.S. TIPS ETF
    SHORT GOVERNMENT SCHO Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF
    Intermediate Government SCHR Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Trsy ETF
    LARGE VALUE VTV Vanguard Value Index
    LARGE BLEND VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
    LARGE VALUE VTV Vanguard Value ETF
    DIVERSIFIED EMERGING MKTS VWO Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock ETF
    Foreign Small/Mid Value SCZ iShares MSCI EAFE Small Cap Index
    Foreign Large Blend EFA iShares MSCI EAFE Index


    As of Oct 15, 2010, the Schwab ETF investment choice is rated asaverage based on MyPlanIQ Plan Rating methodology that was designed to measure how effective a plan's available investment funds are . It has the following detailed ratings:

    Diversification
     -- Rated as below average (19%) 
    Fund Quality -- Rated as average (59%) 
    Portfolio Building -- Rated as average (41%) 
    Overall Rating: average (40%)

    The chart and table below show the historical performance of moderate model portfolios employing strategic and tactical asset allocation strategies ( SAA and TAA , both provided by MyPlanIQ). 

    For comparison purpose, we also include the moderate model portfolios of a typical five asset SIB (Simpler Is Better) plan . This SIB plan has the following candidate index funds and their ETFs equivalent:
    Fixed Income:( AGG or BND ) 
    Foreign Equity:( EFA or VEU ) 
    Emerging Market Equity:( EEM or VWO ) 
    US Equity:( SPY or VTI ) 

    Performance chart (as of Oct 15, 2010)

     
     
    Performance table (as of Oct 15, 2010)

    Portfolio Name
    1Yr AR
    1Yr Sharpe
    3Yr AR
    3Yr Sharpe
    5Yr AR
    5Yr Sharpe
    2%
    17%
    6%
    44%
    14%
    88%
    1%
    10%
    5%
    38%
    12%
    88%
    10%
    71%
    1%
    2%
    9%
    40%
    10%
    76%
    1%
    4%
    8%
    37%


    The Schwab Funds perform adequately against the SIB’s.
     
    TD Ameritrade (Ticker: AMTD) are also newcomers to the ETF space offering 100+ commission free ETFs. The main restriction is that customers have to hold these ETFs for more than 30 days to make such trades ecommission free.

    This is an almost ideal platform for retirement investing with a 30 day redemption period. With a web based application to monitor all of the funds in the plan, it should be possible to put together a very solid portfolio and deliver excellent results.

    These funds provide exposure to 6 major assets: Emerging Market Equity , Foreign Equity , Fixed Income , US Equity , Commodity , Real estate. 

    The list of minor asset classes covered:
    COMMODITIES BROAD BASKET: GSG , DBC 
    Conservative Allocation: AOK 
    DIVERSIFIED EMERGING MKTS: EEM , GMM , PXH , DEM , SCHE 
    Emerging Markets Bond: PCY 
    EQUITY: VTI,VT 
    EUROPE STOCK: IEV , VGK , PEF , DEB 
    Foreign Large Blend: EFA , VEU , GWL , PFA 
    Foreign Large Growth: EFG 
    Foreign Large Value: EFV , PID , DWM 
    FOREIGN SMALL/MID GROWTH: IFSM , VSS , SCHC 
    Foreign Small/Mid Value: SCZ 
    Global Real Estate: IFGL , RWX 
    High Yield Bond: HYG , JNK , PHB 
    Inflation-Protected Bond: TIP 
    Intermediate Government: IEI , VGIT , ITE 
    Intermediate-Term Bond: AGG,CIU , BIV,BND 
    JAPAN STOCK: EWJ , JPP , PJO , DXJ 
    LARGE BLEND: IVV,IYY,IWV , VTI,VV , SPY , DLN , RSP , SCHX 
    LARGE GROWTH: IVW,IWZ,JKE , VUG , ELG , QQQQ , RPG , SCHG 
    LARGE VALUE: IVE,IWW,JKF , VTV , ELV , PWV , RPV , SCHV 
    Latin America Stock: ILF , GML 
    LONG GOVERNMENT: TLT,TLH,IEF , EDV,VGLT , TLO , PLW 
    Long-Term Bond: CLY,LQD , BLV,VCLT 
    MID-CAP BLEND: IJH,IWR,JKG , VO , MDY,EMM , PJG , DON,EZM , MVV 
    Mid-Cap Growth: IJK,IWP , VOT , EMG , PWJ , RFG , UKW 
    MID-CAP VALUE: IJJ,IWS,JKI , VOE , EMV , PWP , RFV , UVU 
    Moderate Allocation: AOM 
    Multisector Bond: AGG,GBF , BND , LAG 
    Muni National Interm: ITM 
    Muni National Long: MUB , TFI , PZA , MLN 
    Muni National Short: SUB , SHM , PVI , SMB 
    PACIFIC/ASIA EX-JAPAN STK: EPP,AAXJ , GMF , PAF , DND 
    REAL ESTATE: IYR,ICF , VNQ 
    SHORT GOVERNMENT: SHY,SHV , VGSH , PLK , USY 
    Short-Term Bond: CSJ , BSV,VCSH 
    SMALL BLEND: IJR,IWM,JKJ , VB , DSC , PJM , DES , SAA,UWM , SCHA 
    Small Growth: IJT,IWO,JKK , VBK , DSG , PWT , RZG , UKK 
    SMALL VALUE: IJS,IWN,JKL , VBR , DSV , PWY , RZV , UVT 
    SPECIALTY-REAL ESTATE: RWR , PSR , URE 
    World Allocation: AOR , AOA 
    WORLD BOND: IGOV , BWX,WIP 
    WORLD STOCK: IOO , VT
     
    As of Oct 15, 2010, this plan investment choice is rated as above average based on MyPlanIQ Plan Rating methodology that was designed to measure how effective a plan's available investment funds are . It has the following detailed ratings:

    Diversification
     -- Rated as great (97%) 
    Fund Quality -- Rated as below average (28%) 
    Portfolio Building -- Rated as great (90%) 
    Overall Rating: above average (73%)

    The chart and table below show the historical performance of moderate model portfolios employing strategic and tactical asset allocation strategies ( SAA and TAA , both provided by MyPlanIQ). 

    For comparison purpose, we also include the moderate model portfolios of a typical five asset SIB (Simpler Is Better) plan . This SIB plan has the following candidate index funds and their ETFs equivalent:

    REITs:( IYR or VNQ or ICF ) 
    Fixed Income:( AGG or BND ) 
    Commodity:(DBC) 
    Foreign Equity:( EFA or VEU ) 
    Emerging Market Equity:( EEM or VWO ) 
    US Equity:( SPY or VTI ) 

    Performance chart (as of Oct 15, 2010)
     



    Performance table (as of Oct 15, 2010)

    Portfolio Name
    1Yr AR
    1Yr Sharpe
    3Yr AR
    3Yr Sharpe
    5Yr AR
    5Yr Sharpe
    13%
    87%
    13%
    86%
    20%
    128%
    10%
    83%
    -1%
    -6%
    9%
    46%
    10%
    65%
    9%
    66%
    17%
    114%
    11%
    84%
    2%
    9%
    9%
    42%


    Currently, asset classes in REITs( IYR , VNQ , ICF ) , Fixed Income( AGG , BND ) and Emerging Market Equity( EEM , VWO ) are doing relatively well. These asset classes are available to TD Ameritrade Commission Free ETFs participants.

     
    Portfolio Performance Comparison

    Portfolio Name
    1Yr AR
    1Yr Sharpe
    3Yr AR
    3Yr Sharpe
    5Yr AR
    5Yr Sharpe
    13%
    87%
    13%
    86%
    20%
    128%
    1%
    10%
    5%
    38%
    12%
    88%
    10%
    83%
    -1%
    -6%
    9%
    46%
    10%
    71%
    1%
    2%
    9%
    40%

     
     
    In this round, TD Ameritrade is the clear winner with tactical asset allocation while the Schwab SAA pretty much matches its counterpart.

    TD Ameritrade's two key advantages are:
    • A large number of ETF’s in six asset classes to allow the construction of high performance portfolios
    • Providing ETF’s with history from industry leading suppliers
     TD Ameritrade is the clear winner and moves on to the final round.

     

    labels:investment,

    Symbols:SUB,SHM,PVI,SMB,EPP,AAXJ,GMF,PAF,DND,SHY,SHV,VGSH,PLK,USY,CSJ,BSV,VCSH,AOR,AOA,IGOV,BWX,WIP,IOO,VT,RWR,PSR,URE,IJS,IWN,JKL,VBR,DSV,PWY,RZV,UVT,IJT,IWO,JKK,VBK,DSG,PWT,RZG,UKK,IJR,IWM,JKJ,VB,DSC,PJM,DES,SAA,UWM,SCHA,ITM,MUB,TFI,PZA,MLN,AGG,GBF,BND,LAG,IJJ,ETFs,Portfolio,Building,Asset,Allocation,Commission,Free,

     

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  • Lazy Portfolios -- The Playoffs II

    10/19/2010

    This is the second article as we attempt to whittle down the lazy portfolios to four finalists for great analysis of what makes for a great portfolio. We are in the bottom half of the alphabetical list and the eight are listed in reducing order asset classes and funds. We have stated that the winners should be those with the most asset classes and highest number of funds.

    Portfolio Classes Funds ETF Equivalent
    Seven-12  7  12 Y
    SIX SIB SAA  6  6 y
    Gone Fishin'  5  10 y
    Swensen 6  4  6 Y
    Wasik`s Nano  4  5 Y
    Harry Browne  3  4 Y
    Schultheis  3  3
    Lowell  2  8 Y
    We are using this series of comparisons to validate whether this proves to be true.
    • Craig L. Israelsen, Ph.D., is an Associate Professor at Brigham Young University. The Seven Equally Weighted, twelve fund portfolio is aimed to protect against losses.
    • The MyPlanIQ six asset SIB has index funds for each of the asset classes represented and rebalances monthly – this is primarily a benchmark portfolio
    • Alexander Green proposed this The Gone Fishin' Portfolio which was outlined in his book 'The Gone Fishin' Portfolio'
    • David Swensen, the Yale Endowment Manager, proposed this one size fit in all model portfolio for individual investors.
    • John Wasik has been a professional journalist and author for 30 years specializing in personal finance. John proposed a portfolio which employs a handful of index or ETFs
    • Harry Browne is the author of Fail-Safe Investing
    • Bill Schulthe is is a former Smith Barney broker and author of "The Coffeehouse Investor."
    • Jim Lowell edits MarketWatch's ETF Trader, an investment letter employing a momentum-based exchange-traded-fund strategy for long-term investors.

    The returns are now presented in order of highest to lowest of the five year returns. How do the returns compare to what we would have expected?

    Portfolio/AR(%) 1 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr Inception
    Harry Browne                 12.49                   7.40                   8.99                   7.31
    Six SIB SAA                 12.54                   1.61                   7.44                   8.26
    Seven-12                 15.55                   0.80                   6.41                   6.16
    Swensen Six                 15.10                 (0.24)                   6.21                   7.10
    Gone Fishin'                 12.98                 (0.34)                   5.64                   6.72
    Wasik`s Nano                 15.34                 (1.93)                   4.74                   4.66
    Schultheis                   9.23                 (2.28)                   4.68                   4.59
    Lowell                 12.45                 (6.26)                   3.55                   6.74
    • The portfolios roughly follow the asset class/fund class as would be expected
    • The Harry Browne portfolio stands out as the clear exception to the rule – it has a signnificant lead over the other portfolios
    • The six asset SIB performed well – that was expected. Six asset classes with index funds should perform well
     
    When we look at the drawdown for each of the portfolios, it will reveal which is the most painful to own.  
         
    Portfolio/DD
    1 Yr
    3 Yr
    5 Yr
    Inception
    Harry Browne
    5%
    15%
    15%
    15%
    Swensen Six
    8%
    39%
    39%
    39%
    Six SIB SAA
    8%
    39%
    39%
    39%
    Schultheis
    9%
    39%
    39%
    39%
    Seven-12
    8%
    40%
    40%
    40%
    Gone Fishin'
    9%
    42%
    42%
    42%
    Wasik`s Nano
    9%
    44%
    44%
    44%
    Lowell
    16%
    57%
    57%
    57%

    Again the Harry Browne portfolio is the clear winner.

    We  select the top two – which are the Harry Browne and Six asset SIB to move to the final round where they will be put against the best two funds from the top half of the alphabet.

    Takeaways
    • The portfolios followed the expected path against asset classes and funds
    • The Harry Browne portfolio was the clear winner and was the exception – we will find out in the final article whether it proves the rule
    • With the exception of the Harry Browne portfolio, the drawdown ratios are uncomfortably high
    • ETF’s can be used to implement any of these strategies

     

    labels:investment,

    Symbols:ACWI,ACWX,ADRE,AGG,BIV,BLV,BND,BSV,BWX,CFT,CIU,CSJ,DBC,DBV,DIA,DVY,EDV,EEM,EFA,EFG,EFV,EMB,ETF,GLD,GOOG,GSG,GXC,HPQ,HYG,ICF,IEF,IEI,IFGL,IGOV,IGR,IJH,IJJ,IJK,IJR,IJS,IJT,IVE,IVV,IVW,IWB,IWC,IWD,IWF,IWM,IWN,Portfolio-Building,with,ETFs,Closed-End,Funds,Commodity,ETFs,Currency,ETFs,Developed,Market,ETFs,

     

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  • Lazy Portfolios -- The Playoffs

    10/19/2010

    We have compared the performance of  fifteen buy and hold portfolios from investing luminaries. Each of the portfolios was measured for performance against SIBs and their relative merits examined. We now move into a playoff round where we will compare the portfolios with each other and see if we can find an eventual winner and look at why they won and what we can learn from this.
     
    When we were testing the portfolios against SIBs, we introduced a tactical asset allocation strategy which usually turned out to have the best performance. For this series of peer comparisons, we are only going to use a buy and hold strategy. When we find the eventual winner, we will then perform a final comparison with tactical asset allocation and see what we conclude.

    The portfolios have been sorted alphabetically and we are going to start with the top part of the alphabet. The portfolios will be listed by decreasing number of asset classes and decreasing number of funds. We would expect that the portfolio with the greatest number of asset classes to have the highest returns and we will test that to see to what extent it is true.

    Table of Lazy Portfolios and their classes and funds

     

    Portfolio Classes Funds ETF Equivalent
    Fund Advice                         5                       11 Y
    Gibson                         5                         6 y
    Five SIB SAA                         5                         5 Y
    Aronson                         4                       11 y
    Armstrong                         4                         7 y
    Four SIB SAA                         4                         4 Y
    Burns/Tobias                         3                         3 Y

     

    • Paul Merriman's FundAdvice.com website has indexed porfolios for several fund companies. The basic strategy is the same as with all the other Lazy Portfolios, here with 11 no-load index funds
    • Gibson's 5 Equal Asset Allocation Strategy comes from Roger Gibson’s widely read "Asset Allocation: Balancing Financial Risks.”
    • The MyPlanIQ five asset SIB has index funds for each of the asset classes represented and rebalances monthly – this is primarily a benchmark portfolio
    • Ted Aronson and his AJO Partners manage about $25 billion of institutional assets. Aronson puts his family's taxable money in this well-diversified portfolio of no-load index funds
    • Frank Armstrong, author of The Informed Investor, proposed his portfolio for an MSN Money article
    • The MyPlanIQ four asset SIB has index funds for each of the asset classes represented and rebalances monthly – this is primarily a benchmark portfolio
    • Scott Burns has covered personal finance and investments for nearly 40 years and ranks as one of the most widely read personal finance writers in the country/ Andrew Tobias, a Harvard alum and writer of 12 books including The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need.


    Table of Lazy Portfolios and their Annual Returns

    Portfolio/AR(%) 1 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr Inception
    Five SIB SAA                 14.27                   1.73                   7.67                   8.38
    Four SIB SAA                 10.76                   0.17                   7.11                   7.40
    Fund Advice                 10.85                   0.24                   6.06                   6.75
    Armstrong                 11.69                 (1.76)                   5.15                   5.55
    Burns/Tobias                   0.45                 (2.32)                   4.54                   4.48
    Aronson                   8.46                 (1.10)                   3.48                   3.59
    Gibson                   8.63                 (4.72)                   0.08                   3.43


    The returns are now presented in order of highest to lowest of the five year returns. How do the returns compare to what we would have expected.
    • There was a wider spread than expected on the four and five asset class portfolios and the Burns/Tobias three asset class, three fund portfolio performed better than expected
    • A five asset class portfolio came out on top – that was expected. The fact that an index based portfolio won out it also not surprising as index funds often outperform funds with active management
    • The fact that a four asset portfolio beat a five asset portfolio demonstrates that picking the right funds in an asset class is important and that index funds deliver good results
    • For a very simple three asset portfolio, the Burns/Tobias performance came higher in the league table
    • The most surprising result is that the Gibson portfolio performed so poorly. When breaking down the long term results of this portfolio, the selection of asset classes has given the portfolio a modest return with a low drawdown index. In the significant market downturn over the past few years, it suffered (as did most buy and hold strategies) badly and has returned to its modest gains whereas other portfolios have had a higher drawdown ratio but a faster recovery


    Table of Lazy Portfolios and their Draw Down Ratios

    Portfolio/DD 1 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr Inception
    Aronson 6% 30% 30% 30%
    Fund Advice 9% 38% 38% 38%
    Gibson 7% 38% 38% 38%
    Four SIB SAA 9% 40% 40% 40%
    Five SIB SAA 8% 41% 41% 41%
    Scott Burns 9% 41% 41% 41%
    Armstrong 11% 44% 44% 44%
    We list the draw down ratios for each of the portfolios and it’s clear that with the recent turbulence, all of them are higher than would be desired.
    We will select the top two – which are the four and five asset SIBs to move to the final round where they will be put against the best two funds from the bottom half of the alphabet.

    Takeaways
    • Asset classes and number of funds in each class are an indicator of better returns but it’s not the only thing
    • Index funds continue to show good results against managed funds
    • or those investing in the very long term, looking at the draw down index is important because it will help you live with the fund selection you have made
    • ETF’s can be used to implement any of these strategies

     

    labels:investment,

    Symbols:ACWI,ACWX,ADRE,AGG,BIV,BLV,BND,BSV,BWX,CFT,CIU,CSJ,DBC,DBV,DIA,DVY,EDV,EEM,EFA,EFG,EFV,EMB,ETF,GLD,GOOG,GSG,GXC,HPQ,HYG,ICF,IEF,IEI,IFGL,IGOV,IGR,IJH,IJJ,IJK,IJR,IJS,IJT,IVE,IVV,IVW,IWB,IWC,IWD,IWF,IWM,IWN,Portfolio-Building,with,ETFs,Closed-End,Funds,Commodity,ETFs,Currency,ETFs,Developed,Market,ETFs,

     

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