- Portfolio Overview
- Asset Allocation and ETFs
- Performance
- Calculators
- Rolling Returns
- Drawdowns
Portfolio Overview
1. Background and Philosophy
The Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio is a variant of the Permanent Portfolio strategy, popularized by Harry Browne and later refined by investment blogger Tyler at Portfolio Charts. The philosophy emphasizes diversification across uncorrelated asset classes to weather various economic conditions (e.g., growth, inflation, deflation, recession). The "Golden Butterfly" adapts Browne's approach by increasing equity exposure for higher long-term returns while maintaining robust downside protection.
2. Asset Allocation Analysis
The portfolio is evenly split into five 20% allocations:
- IJS (iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF): Provides exposure to small-cap value stocks, historically offering higher returns with higher volatility.
- VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF): Represents broad U.S. equities for market beta.
- SHY (iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF): Short-term Treasuries for stability and liquidity.
- TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF): Long-term Treasuries for deflation protection and negative correlation to stocks.
- GLD (SPDR Gold Trust): Gold acts as a hedge against inflation and currency risk.
Key Attributes:
- Diversification: Balances equities (40%), bonds (40%), and gold (20%) to mitigate systemic risks.
- Risk Level: Moderate (historically lower volatility than 100% equity portfolios but higher than conservative bond-heavy allocations).
- Pros: Resilient in market downturns, simple to rebalance, and suitable for long-term investors.
- Cons: Gold and long-term bonds may underperform in rising-rate environments; small-cap value tilts may lag during growth rallies.
3. Practical Application in Retirement Accounts
For 401(k) Accounts:
Investors should map the portfolio to their plan's available funds:
- Equities (40%): Replace IJS with a small-cap value fund (e.g., Russell 2000 Value Index) or a broader U.S. stock fund if unavailable. Use an S&P 500 or total market fund for VTI.
- Bonds (40%): Substitute SHY with a short-term bond fund and TLT with a long-term Treasury or aggregate bond fund.
- Gold (20%): If no commodity fund is available (common in 401(k)s), allocate this portion to equities or a TIPS fund for inflation protection.
For IRA Accounts:
Investors can directly purchase the ETFs listed above for precise allocation. Rebalance annually or when allocations deviate by ±5%.
Note: Always prioritize low-cost index funds and avoid overlapping exposures when substituting holdings.
Asset Allocation
Symbol | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
---|---|---|
IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF |
US Equity | 20% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF |
US Equity | 20% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF |
Fixed Income | 20% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF |
Fixed Income | 20% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares |
Commodities | 20% |
Historical Performance
AR inception is since 07/31/2002.
Name | Inception | YTD Return | 1Yr AR | 3Yr AR | 5Yr AR | 10Yr AR | 15Yr AR | 20Yr AR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio | 8.07% | 2.91% | 9.33% | 7.36% | 7.20% | 6.49% | 7.10% | 7.32% |
VFINX (VANGUARD 500 INDEX FUND INVESTOR SHARES) | 10.98% | 1.86% | 13.70% | 16.81% | 17.04% | 12.74% | 13.83% | 10.40% |
VSMGX (VANGUARD LIFESTRATEGY MODERATE GROWTH FUND INVESTOR SHARES) | 7.00% | 4.53% | 9.53% | 9.09% | 8.33% | 6.12% | 7.14% | 6.08% |
Ticker/Portfolio | Last 1 Week | 1 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 10 Yr | 15 Yr | 20 Yr | Inception | YTD | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | 1993 | 1992 | 1991 | 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | 1987 | 1986 | 1985 | 1984 | 1983 | 1982 | 1981 | 1980 | 1979 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Return (%) | Tyler Golden ...Portfolio | 0.35 | 9.33 | 7.36 | 7.20 | 6.49 | 7.10 | 7.32 | 8.07 | 2.91 | 10.51 | 12.52 | -13.39 | 8.93 | 15.77 | 18.38 | -3.74 | 10.81 | 11.02 | -3.34 | 8.84 | 3.53 | 8.89 | 9.43 | 17.17 | 10.45 | -6.22 | 9.23 | 12.45 | 8.18 | 10.37 | 19.68 | 1.81 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
VFINX (VANGUA...R SHARES) | 2.10 | 13.70 | 16.81 | 17.04 | 12.74 | 13.83 | 10.40 | 10.98 | 1.86 | 24.84 | 26.12 | -18.24 | 28.53 | 18.74 | 31.33 | -4.55 | 21.66 | 11.83 | 1.23 | 13.52 | 32.17 | 15.82 | 1.96 | 14.91 | 26.52 | -37.02 | 5.39 | 15.64 | 4.77 | 10.74 | 28.50 | -22.17 | -12.03 | -9.05 | 21.08 | 28.62 | 33.18 | 22.87 | 37.45 | 1.18 | 10.15 | 8.24 | 32.05 | -3.33 | 28.37 | 14.92 | 3.97 | 9.30 | 22.60 | 3.67 | 17.07 | 19.25 | -8.55 | 27.89 | -2.07 | |
VSMGX (VANGUA...R SHARES) | 1.24 | 9.53 | 9.09 | 8.33 | 6.12 | 7.14 | 6.08 | 7.00 | 4.53 | 10.28 | 15.51 | -16.01 | 10.08 | 13.59 | 19.30 | -6.28 | 14.86 | 7.09 | -2.21 | 6.38 | 14.73 | 9.78 | 0.12 | 13.14 | 20.35 | -26.49 | 7.21 | 13.30 | 5.68 | 11.76 | 22.40 | -10.34 | -4.78 | 1.27 | 14.09 | 21.59 | 17.90 | 10.77 | 26.58 | 2.04 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | |
Sharpe Ratio | Tyler Golden ...Portfolio | NA | 0.29 | 0.28 | 0.46 | 0.54 | NA | NA | 0.73 | 0.15 | 0.45 | 0.91 | -1.19 | 1.17 | 1.08 | 3.19 | -0.78 | 2.42 | 1.73 | -0.52 | 1.67 | 0.47 | 1.38 | 0.99 | 1.95 | 0.79 | -0.46 | 0.74 | 1.12 | 1.00 | 1.57 | 2.69 | 0.15 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
VFINX (VANGUA...R SHARES) | NA | 0.38 | 0.63 | 0.83 | 0.60 | NA | NA | 0.45 | 0.07 | 1.44 | 1.69 | -0.81 | 2.17 | 0.53 | 2.40 | -0.34 | 3.16 | 0.89 | 0.08 | 1.19 | 2.90 | 1.25 | 0.08 | 0.82 | 0.97 | -0.92 | 0.15 | 1.24 | 0.25 | 0.88 | 1.63 | -0.90 | -0.68 | -0.59 | 0.98 | 1.24 | 1.62 | 1.63 | 4.33 | -0.18 | 0.91 | 0.58 | 1.92 | -0.53 | 1.73 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1.49 | -0.24 | 0.80 | 0.65 | -1.27 | 1.19 | -3.84 | |
VSMGX (VANGUA...R SHARES) | NA | 0.30 | 0.41 | 0.58 | 0.42 | NA | NA | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.48 | 1.37 | -1.22 | 1.32 | 0.70 | 2.78 | -0.86 | 3.76 | 0.83 | -0.26 | 1.01 | 2.16 | 1.23 | 0.01 | 1.18 | 1.12 | -0.98 | 0.41 | 1.36 | 0.50 | 1.49 | 2.09 | -0.75 | -0.58 | -0.23 | 1.08 | 1.57 | 1.57 | 0.93 | 4.20 | 4.63 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | |
Standard Deviation(%) | Tyler Golden ...Portfolio | NA | 10.25 | 10.51 | 9.91 | 8.89 | NA | NA | 8.88 | 12.36 | 8.76 | 9.11 | 12.37 | 7.61 | 14.40 | 5.32 | 6.49 | 4.20 | 6.27 | 6.46 | 5.27 | 7.46 | 6.40 | 9.50 | 8.77 | 13.05 | 15.38 | 8.42 | 8.17 | 6.02 | 6.01 | 7.05 | 9.43 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
VFINX (VANGUA...R SHARES) | NA | 19.56 | 18.10 | 17.84 | 18.46 | NA | NA | 18.11 | 27.09 | 12.67 | 13.09 | 24.19 | 13.11 | 34.69 | 12.48 | 17.11 | 6.68 | 13.11 | 15.51 | 11.39 | 11.07 | 12.74 | 23.36 | 18.07 | 27.22 | 40.99 | 16.02 | 10.04 | 10.29 | 11.10 | 17.04 | 25.96 | 21.55 | 22.20 | 18.17 | 20.48 | 18.21 | 11.77 | 7.77 | 9.92 | 8.83 | 9.93 | 14.69 | 16.06 | 13.09 | 17.07 | 33.80 | 16.55 | 11.67 | 12.80 | 13.62 | 18.09 | 14.61 | 16.53 | 23.80 | |
VSMGX (VANGUA...R SHARES) | NA | 10.38 | 10.59 | 10.32 | 10.40 | NA | NA | 11.50 | 13.68 | 7.69 | 8.26 | 14.34 | 7.62 | 19.08 | 6.43 | 8.81 | 3.80 | 8.31 | 8.51 | 6.28 | 6.80 | 7.99 | 14.68 | 11.10 | 18.01 | 27.95 | 10.37 | 7.43 | 6.96 | 7.25 | 10.38 | 15.37 | 12.42 | 12.30 | 10.07 | 11.65 | 9.10 | 7.74 | 5.41 | 15.57 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | |
Draw Down(%) | Tyler Golden ...Portfolio | NA | 8.36 | 11.48 | 19.53 | 19.53 | NA | NA | 21.23 | 8.27 | 4.00 | 9.17 | 18.38 | 3.53 | 17.00 | 2.30 | 8.41 | 2.53 | 4.20 | 6.86 | 3.70 | 5.83 | 3.95 | 4.43 | 5.19 | 14.21 | 20.71 | 4.34 | 8.04 | 3.53 | 5.25 | 4.68 | 6.26 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
VFINX (VANGUA...R SHARES) | NA | 18.76 | 18.76 | 24.59 | 33.83 | NA | NA | 55.25 | 18.76 | 8.45 | 9.97 | 24.59 | 5.14 | 33.83 | 6.63 | 19.40 | 2.60 | 10.29 | 12.05 | 7.30 | 5.59 | 9.60 | 18.71 | 15.66 | 27.17 | 47.73 | 9.88 | 7.47 | 7.01 | 7.47 | 13.79 | 33.02 | 29.18 | 16.55 | 11.81 | 19.20 | 10.79 | 7.45 | 2.50 | 8.48 | 4.84 | 5.63 | 5.57 | 19.19 | 7.35 | 7.24 | 33.08 | 11.63 | 7.51 | 10.58 | 7.02 | 13.21 | 15.61 | 16.03 | 2.40 | |
VSMGX (VANGUA...R SHARES) | NA | 9.62 | 12.88 | 22.29 | 22.43 | NA | NA | 41.18 | 9.62 | 4.17 | 8.15 | 21.74 | 3.53 | 22.43 | 3.12 | 11.47 | 1.14 | 6.20 | 8.34 | 4.70 | 5.67 | 6.27 | 12.90 | 8.64 | 19.61 | 36.81 | 6.11 | 6.13 | 4.74 | 5.89 | 8.91 | 20.06 | 17.93 | 8.77 | 6.26 | 11.99 | 6.02 | 4.75 | 1.82 | 1.89 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | |
Yield(%) | Tyler Golden ...Portfolio | NA | 2.24 | 1.87 | 1.53 | 1.43 | NA | NA | 0.00 | 0.14 | 2.37 | 2.00 | 1.18 | 0.98 | 1.10 | 1.65 | 1.39 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.14 | 1.23 | 1.19 | 1.26 | 1.53 | 1.64 | 1.92 | 2.06 | 2.44 | 2.34 | 2.02 | 1.82 | 1.92 | 0.80 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
VFINX (VANGUA...R SHARES) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | |
VSMGX (VANGUA...R SHARES) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio Return Calculator
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Calculators
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Rolling Returns
From 07/31/2002 to 05/19/2025, the worst annualized return of 3-year rolling returns for Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio is -0.36%.
From 07/31/2002 to 05/19/2025, the worst annualized return of 5-year rolling returns for Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio is 3.7%.
From 07/31/2002 to 05/19/2025, the worst annualized return of 10-year rolling returns for Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio is 4.58%.
Maximum Drawdown
Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio Maximum Drawdown