 |
Vanguard ETF: |  |
7.4%* |
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Diversified Core: | |
8.1%* |
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Six Core Asset ETFs: | |
7.3%* |
Articles on Earnings
- Case Study: Hewlett Packard's 401K Plan
10/09/2010
Retirement investing is an integral part of American personal finance. With $8.9 trillion parked in over 800 thousand retirement plans [401K], millions of Americans will increasingly rely on their 401K accounts to fund their future retirement needs. This article is part of a series of case studies we are conducting for various 401K plans. In this article, we will discuss how participants in Hewlett Packard's 401K plan can achieve reasonable investment results using asset allocation strategies. We will also discuss how those portfolios are positioned in today’s market environment.
Hewlett Packard (HP) (NYSE: HPQ) is one of the largest IT companies. Founded by Bill Hewlett and Dave Packard in Palo Alto, California, HP was the earliest technology company that eventually led to the formation of Silicon Valley. Today Hewlett-Packard has over 300 thousands employees world wide.
HP is known to be employee friendly. It has been named several times as one of the best companies to work for. Its 401k plan provides a well diversified array of high quality funds.
Hewlett Packard's 401K plan consists of 29 funds. These funds enable participants to gain exposure to 5 major assets: US Equity, Foreign Equity, Emerging Market Equity, REITs and Fixed Income. The the list of minor asset classes covered:
Large Blend: SPY, VTI
Large Value: IWD, VTV
Large Growth: IWF, VUG
Mid-Cap Blend: MDY, IWR
Foreign Large Blend: EFA
Foreign Large Growth: EFG
Foreign Large Value: EFV
Foreign Small/Mid Growth: SCZ
Diversified Emerging Mkts: EEM, VWO
Real Estate: IYR, ICF, VNQ
World Bond: BWX
Emerging Markets Bond: PCY, EMB
Inflation-Protected Bond: TIP
Intermediate-Term Bond: AGG, BND
Long Government: IEF, TLT
UltraShort Bond: BSV
Muni National Long: MUB
High Yield Bond: HYG, JNKAs of 9/13/2010, this plan investment choice is rated as Above Average based on MyPlanIQ Plan Rating methodology that was designed to measure how effective a plan's available investment funds are. It has the following detailed ratings:
Diversification – Rated as great (score: 89%)
Fund Quality – Rated as above average (score: 76%)
Portfolio Building -- Rated as above average (score: 72%)
Overall Rating: above average (score: 78%)
The chart and table below show the historical performance of moderate model portfolios employing strategic and tactical asset allocation strategies (SAA and TAA, both provided by MyPlanIQ). For comparison purpose, we also include the moderate model portfolios of a typical five asset SIB (Simpler Is Better) plan. This SIB plan has the following candidate index funds and their ETFs equivalent:
US Equity (SPY or VTI)
Foreign Equity (EFA or VEU)
Emerging Market Equity (EEM or VWO)
REITs (IYR or VNQ or ICF)
Fixed Income (AGG or BND)
Performance chart (as of 9/13/2010)
Performance table (as of 9/13/2010)
1 Yr AR (%) 1 Yr Sharpe (%) 3 Yr AR (%) 3 Yr Sharpe(%) 5 Yr AR (%) 5 YR Sharpe (%) Plan SAA 15.95 145.83 2.34 10.27 5.76 29.43 5 SIB SAA 13.09 96.52 2.49 8.77 6.74 29.02 Plan TAA 15.53 103.28 9.35 73.75 11.43 88.56 5 SIB TAA 9.99 68.82 8.11 66.77 11.62 92.08 Currently, asset classes in emerging market stocks (EEM, VWO), REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) (VNQ, IYR, ICF) and fixed income (AGG, BND) are doing relatively well. These asset classes are available to HP 401k participants.
To summarize, Hewlett Packard 401K plan participants can achieve reasonable investment returns by adopting asset allocation strategies that are tailored to their risk profiles. Currently, the tactical asset allocation strategy indicates overweighing on emerging market stocks, REITs and fixed income funds.
labels:investment,
Symbols:BND,BSV,BWX,EFA,EFG,EFV,EMB,HPQ,HYG,ICF,IEF,IWD,IWF,IWR,IYR,JNK,MDY,MUB,PCY,PHB,SCZ,SPY,TLT,VEU,VNQ,VTI,VTV,VUG,Fixed,Income,Asset,Allocation,Bonds,Dollar/Currencies,Earnings,
- Dow Theory Revisited, Reviewed, Compared
10/08/2010
In this article we are going to revisit Dow Theory -- the grand-daddy of all portfolio strategies and then compare it with more modern approaches. We will look at Shiller, a long term but newer approach and then modern portfolio theory which is based on asset allocation.
The Dow Theory is one of the most venerable strategies. It uses the price trends of the Dow Jones Industrial index (^DJI) and the Dow Jones Transportation Index (^DJT) to decide whether to invest in the stock market.The Dow Theory has been around for almost 100 years, yet even in today’s volatile and technology-driven markets, the basic components of Dow theory still remain valid. Developed by Charles Dow, refined by William Hamilton and articulated by Robert Rhea, the Dow Theory addresses not only technical analysis and price action, but also market philosophy. Many of the ideas and comments put forth by Dow and Hamilton became axioms of Wall Street.
Today, there are a variety of strategies
There are multiple interpretations of the original Dow Theory. This strategy represents a typical version: all the buy and sell signals are confirmed by both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average is used to triangulate the Dow Jones Industrial Average to ensure that an upward or downward trend is not just a localized phenomenon.
The buy signal- A primary low is established
- A secondary bounce
- A pullback of around 3% but above previous lows
- Both averages hold above the prior lows
- Both averages exceed the secondary bounce
The sell signal- A primary high is established
- A secondary drop
- A rally of over 3% but falls short of the previous high
- A drop of both averages below the previous drop
The funds in the portfolio are (ETF alternatives):- Wilshire 5000 total return index ^DWC (VTI, SPY, IWM)
- Cash (BND)
This is a long established strategy and should be reviewed to see how it performs in more recent operating conditions. To achieve this, we will compare results with another long term plan – Shiller, a modern portfolio (a 6 asset SIB with tactical asset allocation) and the total market (^DWC).
Click here for the interactive graphHistorical Returns for Dow Theory, Shiller and 6SIB TAA Annual Returns 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Dow Theory -14% -12% -2% Shiller 8% 16% 11% 6 SIB TAA 9% 10% 13%
The Dow Theory has not been effective in the last ten years given the prevailing market conditions. It is possible that a different investment portfolio would perform better but given that Shiller is using similar funds, Shiller appears to be a better choice.
Today, Dow Theory is signallingTakeaways:- Both the Dow Theory and Shiller are based on long term indices and both of them outperform the market
- Shiller performs better as we recover from the nightmare of the last few years
- Modern portfolio theory based on diversification and tactical asset allocation consistently outperforms the other strategies – within the measurement timeframe
labels:investment,
Symbols:VTI,SPY,IWM,BND,AGG,DBC,EEM,EFA,GSG,IYR,LQD,SHY,TLT,Bonds,Dollar/Currencies,Earnings,Economy,Hedge,Funds,
- Three Asset Class Lazy Portfolios Reviewed
09/29/2010
Three luminaries presented three very similar (two identical) lazy portfolios.- Bill Schulthe, a former Smith Barney broker and author of "The Coffeehouse Investor
- Andrew Tobias, a Harvard alum and writer of 12 books including The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need.
- Scott Burns has covered personal finance and investments for nearly 40 years and ranks as one of the most widely read personal finance writers in the country
Bill Schultheis' Coffeehouse Portfolios% Allocation Description Ticker ETF 34% Total US Equities VTSMX VTI 33% Total International Equities VGTSX VEU 33% Total Bond Market VBMFX BND Scott Burns' Margarita
% Allocation Description Ticker ETF 34% Total US Equities VTSMX VTI 33% Total International Equities VGTSX VEU 33% Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund VIPSX TIP Tobias’ 3 Fund Portfolio
% Allocation Description Ticker ETF 34% Total US Equities VTSMX VTI 33% Total International Equities VGTSX VEU 33% Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund VIPSX TIP These are all easy to understand and easy to follow portfolios. They only require annual rebalancing and so it is not onerous to build and manage this portfolio.
Note that Tobias and Burns portfolios are identical so we combine them henceforth.
We will test the results in three dimensions:
Firstly, how does performance compare with a buy and hold strategy for a similar portfolio with monthly rebalancing. For this, we will compare the two portfolios against a 3 asset SIB and measure results.
From this graph, it is clear that the portfolios have similar performance although the lazy portfolios perform slightly better than the monthly rebalancing. This is consistent with other research that says too frequent rebalancing can limit returns. All the portfolios suffer from the big drop around 2008/2009.
Secondly, what impact does adding asset classes have on performance. Three asset classes would be considered insufficient diversification today and we will compare it with a 6 asset SIB with strategic asset allocation.
Here we can clearly see the benefits of adding extra asset classes. Note that the 6SIB portfolio was rebalanced monthly so there is probably more juice that can be extracted from this portfolio. This is not surprising and if you are looking to invest for the long term and rebalance infrequently, having the extra asset classes is not onerous and delivers significant benefit.The final test is to compare strategic and tactical asset allocation. For this test we will compare the lazy portfolios with a 3 asset SIB with tactical asset allocation, we will also include a 6asset SIB with tactical asset allocation to see what best in class performance looks like.
As the lazy portfolios have similar performance characteristics, we have removed one of them to make the graph easier to understand. To get more details, use the full graph.
Tactical asset allocation clearly delivers superior results. While it may not get the highest returns in bull markets, it limits the downturn in bear markets and reduces losses and personal stress. The tactical portfolios are altered monthly so there is extra effort required but the returns are worth it.Results of the Three and Six Asset Class Portfolios with SAA and TAA Annual Returns 1 year 3 Years 5 Years Tobias/Burns 7.4 -1.69 3.5 Schulthe 6.78 -2.34 3.87 3 SIB SAA 7.4 -1.69 3.5 3 SIB TAA -2.86 0.67 4.14 6 SIB SAA 10.63 1.66 6.72 6 SIB TAA 9.0 10.0 13.0
Takeaways- If you want a lazy portfolio, go for five or six asset classes – you won’t rebalance that often so having the extra classes isn’t a big overhead
- If you want to maximize returns, look for tactical asset allocation – it may be a compromise to have four or five asset classes with tactical asset allocation – historically that has delivered higher returns that buy and hold
- Consider using an on-line broker that allows on-click execution of trades at a fixed price – that makes the time and cost overhead low.
labels:investment,
Symbols:TIP,VTI,SPY,IWM,BND,AGG,DBC,EEM,EFA,GSG,IYR,LQD,SHY,TLT,ETF,ETF,Portfolio,Building,Asset,Allocation,Bonds,Dollar/Currencies,Earnings,Economy,Hedge,Funds,
