October 17th 2011: 99% of Us in Retirement Investing

10/17/2011 0 comments

The demand of 'Occupy Wall Street' protesters reveals a starking reality in the US and the world: the greatest income inequality between the top 1% and the rest of us. The world is in an era unseen since World War II: an uneven and unstable economic period that might spread to political and social unrest.

In investing, the great divide also exists: you see 99% of plan participants are getting lower or zero returns in the past decade while the other 1% (big shot hedge funds and some wealth management programs catering wealthy individuals and institutions) have achieved doubled digit returns. In fact, from a report by the Department of Labor, EBSA estimates that from 1998 to 2007, the average annual returns for IRAs were 4.5 percent, compared with 5.4 percent for 401(k)s. In the same period, Vanguard balance fund index (VBINX) rose 6.5%% annually, while S&P 500 (Vanguard 500 VFINX) rose 5.84% annually. On the other hand, hedge funds notched 8.7% average annual return (see EDHC report).

Some of the main issues why the rest of us achieved lower returns (and bigger risk):

  • High fees: the never ending of new fund issuance, insurance products that charge high fees with convoluted disclosures in small prints, various mutual fund classes and the outrageous fees charged to many uninformed 401K plan participants. Professors Edwin J. Elton, Martin J. Gruber and Christopher R. Blake at the New York University reported "that S&P 500 index funds, we find that the index funds chosen by 401K-plan administrators are on average inferior to the S&P 500 index funds selected by the aggregate of all investors." (see The Adequacy of Investment Choices Offered By 401(k) Plans)
  • Ill structured 401K design and low quality fund choices: we recently studied Ameriprise 401K (see Ameriprise Employees Filed A Suit Over Expensive 401K Plan Fund Choices) and found that the plan has 19% (out 100%) rating by MyPlanIQ. It has only 3 asset class coverage (as many other 401K plans) and very low quality funds (ranked 4% out of 100%)!
  • Continuously touted buy and hold strategy that leads investors and retirement participants blindly. We are not here against the buy and hold strategy. In fact, we always advocate that strategic asset allocation should have a place in one's portfolio. But simply treating this as a dogma and do nothing while letting other high frequency traders, market makers, macro even hedge funds and long short funds to take advantage of the mass is somewhat shocking. 

Certainly, while blaming others can be one way to vent one's anger, it is more constructive to take an active role to solve the problem. We offer the following suggestions: 

  • Talk to your human resource personnel, show them how the plan is stacked up against others and why and how the plan can be improved (in three areas: lower fees, better fund quality and better diversification coverage).
  • Equip yourself with knowledge: first get your own investment portfolios in order based on asset allocation (diversification) principle, and then consider to enhance this by using various low cost services offered out there.
  • Stay connected with other fellow 99%: the internet now enables us to exchange information in a fast and efficient way. Ask questions and help out others.

Market Overview

Last week, markets whip sawed back amid the euphoria of European debt solution and economic developments (some positive numbers such as retail sales in September). Markets have been behaving not entirely based on underlying economic factors but have been driven by government policies. This has been a difficult period for many investment strategies.

Some interesting observations brought up by ZeroHedge.com on such a rapid ascend of the world wide equity markets:


"As the following note by Deutsche Bank's Alan Ruskin explains, the sole reason for the EUR (and hence S&P and global 100% correlated equity risk) surge in the past 9 days is not driven by any latent "optimism" that Europe will fix itself, but simply due to the previously discussed wholesale asset liquidations (as none other than the FT already noted), which on the margin are explicitly EUR positive due to FX repatriation, courtesy of the post-sale conversion of USDs to EURs. Which means that the ever so gullible equity market has just experienced one of the biggest headfakes in history, and has misinterpreted a pervasive European, though mostly French, scramble to procure liquidity at any cost by dumping various USD-denominated assets, as a risk on signal!"

Nobody knows for sure what is going to happen next week or next month, but again, we let the markets decide while being clearly aware of the underlying fundamental issues.

Last week, all risk assets rose substantially: US stocks (VTI) rose 6.27%, International stocks (6.41%), emerging market stocks (VWO) 8.67%, US REITs (VNQ) 6.31%. However, all of the risk assets are still ranked below short term treasury bills (SHV).

For more information on how these assets are ranked, please see here.

Benchmark Portfolios

Always, we review one of the featured ETF plans listed on ETF, Mutual Fund Portfolios" page. Let's look at Vanguard ETFs that consists of 50 low cost Vanguard ETFs.

Portfolio Performance Comparison (as of 10/14/2007)

Portfolio/Fund Name 2011 YTD1Yr AR 1Yr Sharpe 3Yr AR 3Yr Sharpe 5Yr AR 5Yr Sharpe
SPY -2.1% 5% 4% 13% 23% -0% -9%
Vanguard ETFs Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate -4.68% -2% -16% 9% 45% 4% 19%
Vanguard ETFs Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate -0.27% 1% 10% 8% 60% 10% 65%
VBINX 0.83% 5% 14% 12% 46% 3% 10%

Refer here for more detailed comparison.

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Disclaimer:

Any investment in securities including mutual funds, ETFs, closed end funds, stocks and any other securities could lose money over any period of time. All investments involve risk. Losses may exceed the principal invested. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. There is no guarantee for future results in your investment and any other actions based on the information provided on the website including, but not limited to, strategies, portfolios, articles, performance data and results of any tools.

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