Morningstar's Moderate Retiree Portfolio Shows the Limits of Lazy Portfolios

02/21/2011 0 comments

 Morningstar has recently produced an aggressive retirement portfolioThey have a series of funds for which they provide a set of allocations depending on your time horizon.


In this articlewe are going to critique the moderate portfolio where they have stipulated the asset allocation

Their retiree plan consists of 10 fundsThese funds enable participants togain exposure to 4 major assetsUS EquityForeign EquityEmerging Market EquityFixed Income.
ETF %age
Megacap MGC 20
Mid Cap VO 7
Small Cap VB 3
Foreign Equity EFA 7
Emerging Market VWO 1.5
TIPs Bond TIP 20
Short Term Bond BSV 11
Inflation Protected WIP 3
MBS Bond MBS 8
Corporate Bonds LQD 13.5
Cash 6

This can be summarized in major asset classes as:

Asset Class
Ownership
US Equities
39%
International
9%
Emerging Markets
2%
Fixed income
50%


The strategic asset allocation ownership will also remain constant

Asset Class
Ownership
US Equities
12.83%
International
12.83%
Emerging Markets
12.83%
Fixed income
61.5

This underweights the US and boosts International and especially emerging marketsFixed income remains the same except the fixed income assets willbe rotated depending on their price momentum.

Tactical asset allocation ownership will be dependent on asset class momentum on a monthly basisUnder most operating conditions50willbe fixed income and 25will be designated to each of the top two assetclasses -- unless they are underperforming fixed incomein which case it willbecome fixed incomeIf fixed income is underperforming cashfixed income will move to cash

Asset Class
Ownership
US Equities
25or 0
International
25or 0
Emerging Markets
25or 0
Fixed income
61.5, 74.33,86.66, 100

This portfolio is called moderate by Morningstar but with this amount of assets in fixed incomewe would qualify it as a moderate portfolio.

We are going to compare results of:

  • The portfolio as proposed by Morningstar
  • A tactical asset allocation portfolio using the funds proposed by Morningstar
  • A strategic asset allocation portfolio using the funds proposed by Morningstar
  • A tactical asset allocation portfolio using ETFs to clone the funds proposed by Morningstar for their own 401K plan
  • A strategic asset allocation portfolio using ETFs to clone the funds proposed by Morningstar for their own 401K plan
Portfolio Performance Comparison
Portfolio Name 1Yr AR 1Yr Sharpe 3Yr AR 3Yr Sharpe 5Yr AR 5Yr Sharpe
Morningstar 401K ETF Clone TAA 61.5 12% 107% 7% 67% 11% 85%
Morningstar 401K ETF Clone SAA 61.5 13% 186% 3% 29% 6% 46%
Morningstar Retiree Conservative Portfolio TAA 61.5 8% 77% 3% 28% 6% 44%
Morningstar Moderate Retirement Potfolio Original 8% 199% 3% 44%    
Morningstar Retiree Moderate Portfolio SAA 61.5 17% 135% 1% 4% 4% 19%

As before, we note that  some ETFs prevent us fromgoing back more than three yearsAs we go forwardwe will get a better reading on the original portfolio.

In the other portfolios, styles rotation means that better performing ETFs will be rotated in so that there would be an ETF available in the asset class (or cash would be used). The original portfolio was specific about asset and fund allocation and so we did not tamper with this.

Takeaways:

The funds proposed in Morningstar's own 401K plan wins the day -- they have between 20-30 funds in their plan which involves more trading than the truly lazy portfolio. However, as with the conservative portfolio, such a large proportion is in fixed income, it seems to make sense to find more active management of the assets.

If you are serious about optimizing the returns on your portfolio, you have to be more involved than quarterly rebalancing. There is need for regular review as to which asset classes and subclasses are best to use.

If you really want a lazy portfolio, we suggest an annual review where you examine the asset classes. It is our view that this plan relies too heavily on US equities -- something that is good for now, but there is general consensus that a correction will occur and more diversification would be better.

Disclosure:

MyPlanIQ does not have any business relationship with the company orcompanies mentioned in this articleIt does not set up retirement plansTheperformance data of portfolios mentioned above are obtained throughhistorical simulation and are hypothetical.



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