ETF Based Bond Trend Indicators For The Week of November 8

11/08/2010 0 comments

Fixed income is one of the two key asset class categories in portfolio building. The main risks in fixed income, interest rate risk and credit risk,  are represented by various long/intermediate/short maturity bonds and high yield (junk), credit bonds. These indices provide important clues to debt market conditions that are key to asset allocation strategies. MyPlanIQ tracks detailed weekly bond trend movement. We use ETFs that represent the bond classes. For more information, please visitMyPlanIQ 360 Degree Market View.
 
The Federal Reserve's low rate policy has driven down bond yields to historical low. The Fed's QE2 announced last week showed Fed's committed action to maintain a long period of low rates to stimulate the economy. Investors should take a note on the 20+ year treasury bonds that has had trouble recently: reflecting a belief that eventually, Fed's action will result in much higher inflation. International fixed income bonds are rising because of the US dollar weakness. 

 

Asset ClassSymbol8 Nov 
Trend Score
Direction
US Total Bond BND 6% First Week
International Treasury BWX 8% First Week
Intermediate Term Credit CIU 10% First Week
California Muni CMF 5% First Week
Short Term Credit CSJ 4% First Week
Intermediate Treasury IEF 14% First Week
High Yield JNK 19% First Week
Long Term Credit LQD 13% First Week
MBS Bond MBB 7% First Week
National Muni MUB 6% First Week
New York Muni NYF 4% First Week
Emerging Mkt Bonds PCY 20% First Week
Treasury Bills SHV 0% First Week
Short Term Treasury SHY 2% First Week
Inflation Protected TIP 10% First Week
10-20Year Treasury TLH 13% First Week
20+ Year Treasury TLT 5% First Week
International Inflation Protected WIP 12% First Week



Top Five Indicators



International treasury has risen dramatically recently mainly due to dollar weakness. The investment grade corporate bonds, along with municipal bonds have been very steady. 
 

Bottom Five Indicators


The worst performers are treasury bonds, especially in the 20+ year ones. Again, it is telling that investors definitely have a negative outlook in a long term for fixed income.

In conclusion, bonds in general continue to do well. Investors should keep an eye on such euphoria outlook and watch carefully on the possible turn that eventually will happen: exceptional low rates have to come with a price and can only sustain for so long.

labels:investment,Symbols,AGG,BND,SHV,SHY,IEF,TLH,TLT,TIP,WIP,HYG,JNK,PHB,CSJ,CIU,LQD,BWX,CMF,NYF,MUB,MBB,PCY,EMB,

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