Extrapolation: Dangers of the Reckless Ruler

The game of investing would be rather simple if everything moved in a straight line and economic data points could be could be connected with a level ruler. Unfortunately, the real world doesn’t operate that way – data points are actually scattered continuously. In the short-run, inflation, GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, corporate earnings, profit […]

More Treats, Less Tricks

This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complementary newsletter (November 2, 2015). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text. Have you finished licking the last of your Halloween chocolate-covered fingers and scheduled your next cavity-filled dental appointment? After a few challenging months, the normally spooky month […]

Out of the Woods?

In the middle of the 24/7 news cycle, many investors get distracted by the headline du jour, much like a baby gets distracted by a shiny new object. While investor moods have been swinging violently back and forth, October’s performance has bounced back like a flying tennis ball. So far, the reversal in the S&P […]

The Fallibility of Tangibility

Why do so many star athletes end up going bankrupt? Rather than building a low-cost, tax-efficient, diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds that could help generate significant income and compounded wealth over the long-term (yawn…boring), many investors succumb to the allure of over-exposing themselves to costly, illiquid, tangible assets, while assuming disproportionate risk. After all, […]

E.M.s Want Cake & Eat It Too

Since the end of 2010, the emerging markets (E.M.) have gotten absolutely obliterated (MSCI Emerging Markets index –25%) compared to a meteoric rise in U.S. stocks (S&P 500 index +60%) over the same period. Slowing global growth, especially with resource-hungry China going on a crash diet, has caused commodity-exporting emerging markets like Brazil to suffer economic […]

Marathon Market Gets a Cramp

This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complementary newsletter (October 1, 2015). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text. “Anyone can run a hundred meters, it’s the next forty-two thousand and two hundred that count.” Investing is a lot like running a marathon…but it’s not a […]

Coast is Clear Until 2019

The economic recovery since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09 has been widely interpreted as the slowest recovery since World War II. Bill McBride of Calculated Risk captures this phenomenon incredibly well in his historical job loss chart (see red line in chart below): History tells us that the economy traditionally suffers from an economic […]

To Test or Retest?

In Shakespeare’s tragedy Hamlet, the main character Prince Hamlet raises the existential question to himself, “To be, or not to be, that is the question?” With the recent -13% correction in the S&P 500 index, and subsequent mini-rebound, a lot of investors have also been talking to themselves and asking the fundamental question, “To test […]

Oxymoron: Shrewd Government Refis Credit Card

With the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meetings coming up this Wednesday and Thursday, investors’ eyes remain keenly focused on the actions and words of Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen. If you have painstakingly filled out an IRS tax return or frustratingly waited in long lines at the DMV or post office, you may not be […]

The Bungee Market

This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complementary newsletter (September 1, 2015). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text. Are you an adrenaline junkie? You may be one and not even know it. If you are an investor in the stock market, you may have noticed […]

Have Peripheral Colds Caused a U.S. Recession Flu?

At the trough of the recent correction, which was underscored by a brief but sharp -1,100 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Dow had temporarily corrected by -16.2% from its peak in May, earlier this year. Whether we retest or break below the 15,370 level again is debatable, but with the Dow […]

The Art of Catching Falling Knives

“In the middle of every difficulty lies an opportunity.”  ~Albert Einstein It was a painful week for bullish investors in the stock market as evidenced by the -1,018 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, equivalent to approximately a -6% decline. The S&P 500 index did not fare any better, and the loss for […]

Inside the Brain of an Investing Genius

Those readers who have frequented my Investing Caffeine site are familiar with the numerous profiles on professional investors of both current and prior periods (See Profiles). Many of the individuals described have a tremendous track record of success, while others have a tremendous ability of making outrageous forecasts. I have covered both. Regardless, much can be […]

Playing the Field with Your Investments

For some, casually dating can be fun and exciting. The same goes for trading and speculating – the freedom to make free- wheeling, non-committal purchases can be exhilarating. Unfortunately the costs (fiscally and emotionally) of short-term dating/investing often outweigh the benefits. Fortunately, in the investment world, you can get to know an investment pretty well […]

Investors Take a Vacation

This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complementary newsletter (August 3, 2015). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text. It’s summertime and the stock market has taken a vacation, and it’s unclear when prices will return from a seven month break. It may seem like a […]

Supply & Demand: The Key to Oil, Stocks, and Pork Bellies

Commodity prices, including oil, are “crashing” according to the pundits and fears are building that this is a precursor to another stock market collapse. Are we on an irreversible path of repeating the bloodbath carnage of the 2008-2009 Great Recession? Fortunately for investors, markets move in cycles and the fundamental laws of supply and demand hold […]

Stock Market Tug-of-War

Some things never change. There are several certainties in life, including death and taxes. And when it comes to investing, there are several other certainties: the never-ending existence of geopolitical concerns, and incessant worries over Fed policy. Let’s face it, since the dawn of mankind, humans have been programmed to worry, whether it stemmed from […]

F.U.D. and Dividend Shock Absorbers

As the existential question remains open on whether Greece will remain a functioning entity within the eurozone, investor anxiety and manic behavior continues to be the norm. Rampant fear seems very counterintuitive for a stock market that has more than tripled in value from early 2009 with the S&P 500 index only sitting -3% below […]

Greece: The Slow Motion, Multi-Year Train Wreck

This article is an excerpt from a previously released Sidoxia Capital Management complementary newsletter (July 1, 2015). Subscribe on the right side of the page for the complete text. Watching Greece fall apart over the last five years has been like watching a slow motion train wreck. To many, this small country of 11 million people […]

Missing the Forest for the Trees

Just days ago, billionaire investor and corporate activist Carl Icahn called the stock market “extremely overheated,” especially as it relates to high yield bonds. He communicated these comments over Twitter after saying markets are “sailing in dangerous unchartered waters.” Given recent Greek developments regarding its inability to strike a debt repayment deal with eurozone leaders, […]