Glowing, but depending on where you live

There has been a gripping amount of global warming, worldwide, since the start of this millennium.  The latest policy attention has come in the form of an agreement, hammered out at last year’s United Nations climate conference -COP21- in Paris.  But what is lesser known about this critical topic is to what degree this glowing of Earth…Read More

Retired (until there is a job available)

544 thousand jobs added in the final two months of 2015 appears fantastic, so why doesn’t it seem that way recently?  And why is the unemployment rate quickly flattening at about 5%?  These are interesting questions that demand new insights into the probability and mechanics of the participation data last year.  What we witness from…Read More

Recherché market statistics

Short-term update: article right now final share of 2015 for Quantocracy.  Also shared by Ritholtz (link forthcoming).  Visit their websites and make sure to share this article.  Thanks and happy holidays! As we head into 2016, we can often look back at the past year and an overall history of rare events, and try to then extrapolate future…Read More

Damaged Terror Alert System

“Salil Mehta is a two-time Administration executive, leading Treasury/TARP’s analytics team, as well as PBGC’s policy, research, and analysis, as well as their first risk analysis function.  Salil is the creator of one of the most popular free statistics blogs, Statistical Ideas.” ~~~ This level of bungling would be humorous if the stakes weren’t so high.  The terrorism…Read More

Rate Rise Amid Pandemonium

It should be easy to at least get the direction of interest rate changes correct, most of the time. Instead as we see in the chart here, professional money managers always get this wrong (and truth be told this pattern has been going on for many cycles). The problem is just as bad when it…Read More

ISIL’s psychotic ambitions

Terrorist rings come and go throughout history, and Da’ish (ISIL) is the latest to spread horror and fear to a marred civilization.  The research here (assembling thousands of data points from regional news and government sources) shows that terrorism is on the rise, squeezed in one location(s) at times but sooner or later spread out in others….Read More

Thinking About Market Risk

Seeing the market crash from a few weeks ago, it is clear how quickly the market can ferociously hurdle in front of one’s risk models.  Risk models that failed to safeguard against risk when it mattered the most.  Models that left many large hedge funds hemorrhaging – top funds which by definition were supposed to protect their investors in the August…Read More

Fine, when you ignore history

This must be the “new normal” everyone​’s talking about​. Where a cyclical low ​in the ​unemployment rate​, to the the low 5 percent range​,​ is met with a courtly high stock market and talks of an impending rise in rates. Sure there is a feeling in some pockets ​of the economy ​that “things” are much…Read More

A Face in Numbers: Microsoft, Google & Big Data

Salil Mehta is a statistician and risk strategist. He served for two years as Director of Analytics in the U.S. Department of the Treasury for the Administration’s $700 billion TARP program. Salil is on the Editorial Board for the American Statistical Association, is a Chartered Financial Analyst, a fellow member of the American Statistical Association and…Read More

Forever Elusive Alpha

“Success in investing doesn’t correlate with I.Q. once you’re above the level of 25. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing.”

Where are the jobs?

Surprised to see that private sector employers have added just under 200k jobs a month, for the past year? You may very well be, if you are one of the nearly 70% of Americans in the private sector, who neither work in retail industries nor for corporate management.    

Enhanced Tail Risk, in the Less Risky

There is more risk in less risky asset classes than one may think. This analysis looks at major equity and fixed income asset classes, both in the U.S., as well as internationally. And the study samples two decades of data, from 1990, to 2010. A period that is fairly representative of a lengthier history of markets, through current.   …