I announced on February 22 Goodbye Blogger, Hello WordPress: Mish’s GlobalEconomicAnalysis has Moved to MishTalk.Com. My needs outgrew blogger.The top reason is that I wanted a multi-page layout, with a different home page than the detail pages. Most o…
It’s been a long run, but I am leaving Google Blogger for a new home on WordPress.Please bookmark my new site: http://mishtalk.com/Why Leave? My needs outgrew blogger.The top reason is that I wanted a multi-page layout, with a different home page than …
Ted Cruz was the surprise winner in the Iowa Republican caucuses tonight edging out Donald Trump who in turn edged out Marco Rubio in a very strong voter turnout.On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is just a handful of votes ahead of socialist Bern…
“Blue Chip” OptimismThe Atlanta Fed initial GDPNow Forecast for first quarter 2016 starts of will an anemic 1.2% whimper.”The initial GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 1.2 percen…
Economists expecting a huge surge in construction spending thanks to unusually warm December weather were no doubt shocked by today’s anemic report. The Econoday Consensus Estimate was for +0.6% in a range of 0.3% to 1.3%, but not a single economist ca…
Manufacturing in January continues its dismal track record with the latest ISM reading. Econoday reports … Employment sank the ISM index in January which could muster no better than a 48.2 for what, following annual revisions to 2015, is the fourth …
China’s manufacturing extended its long slump according to the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI. Chinese manufacturers signaled a modest deterioration in operating conditions at the start of 2016, with both output and …
On January 18, I sent the article below (starting with the title Nate Silver Off the Mark on Donald Trump Nomination Odds) to the New York Times as an Op-Ed.They did not publish it.It’s hard enough getting something timely to major new orga…
Economists have a perfect track record of 100% failure in ability to predict a recession. In a recession that’s at least 20% likely to have already started, Economists See 20% Chance of US Recession this Year. A Financial Times survey of 51 economists,…
No one has called long-duration treasury yields better than Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management. He says they are going lower. If the US is in or headed for recession then I believe he is correct.Gordon Long, founder of the Financial Repression website …
As proof of how badly German chancellor Angela Merkel has handled the refugee crisis, a new Poll Shows 40 Percent of Germans want Merkel to Quit. Nearly 40 percent of German voters think Chancellor Angela Merkel should quit over her liberal asylum pol…
The BEA “Advance GDP” estimate for 4th quarter came in today at +0.7% vs. an Econoday Consensus Estimate of 0.9%. Consumer spending is the central driver of the economy but is slowing, at least it was during the fourth quarter when GDP rose only at a 0…
Meaning of “Now”Eight days ago, the Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda, said No Plan to Adopt Negative Rates Now.Well, that was then, and this is now.Negative Rates AnnouncedToday we learn Bank of Japan Adopts Negative Interest Rates. The Bank of …
Future of FarmingThe future of farming has arrived. It’s vertical, soilless, and run by robots.Tech Insider reports World’s First Robot-run farm will harvest 30,000 heads of lettuce daily. The Japanese lettuce production company Spread believes the far…
Crash!Durable goods orders and shipments crashed in December. The Econoday Consensus Estimate for durable goods new orders was a 0.2% rise. Here are the amazing results. Crash vs. Thud Econoday called the results a “giant thud”. The words “giant …
Of all the ridiculous opinions as to why the US is not about to enter a recession, the Fed’s “Workhorse” Model is at the top of the list. Torsten Sløk, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, is taking the optimistic route by drawing attention…
On Wednesday, the Chicago Board of education pulled the plug on a proposed $875 Million Bond Sale. Facing hefty yields, the financially ailing Chicago Public Schools (CPS) postponed Wednesday’s planned $875 million bond sale and will evaluate the timin…
“Levels Not Seen in 80 Years”The supply glut in oil storage continues as crude. Inventories hit new all-time highs this past week.The above charts from EIA Weekly Supply Data shows the crude inventory of 494,920,000 (not counting strategic reserves) pa…
December new home sales surged well over the high end Econoday estimate. The outlook for the housing sector just got a boost from a sharp jump in new home sales, up 10.8 percent to a 544,000 annualized rate that is 44,000 over the Econoday consensus a…
Fed Balance Sheet vs. S&P 500I was playing around with some ideas on the St Louis Fed “Fred” database and came up with this.Mike “Mish” ShedlockMike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Manageme…
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