Crude oil prices had a seemingly exhaustive washout selloff following the Nov. 27 OPEC meeting. Oil bulls had been hoping for a production cutback at that meeting, but Saudi Arabia successfully led an effort to oppose such cuts.
The data on the U.S. unemployment rate have been getting progressively better over recent months, either because of or in spite of the government’s efforts, depending on one’s viewpoint. And if this week’s chart is to be believed, then the data should continue to get better over the next several months.
I cannot believe the volume of the news stories I am seeing in the financial media, with people worrying about impending deflation. And as any card-carrying contrarian knows, when a topic gets too popular, you are near a turning point.
By now most who follow the stock market know that the first two years of each presidential term are basically flat, but the good times come in the 3rd year which is nearly always an up year. What a lot of people do not know is that it matters a lot in the 2nd year whether you have a first term president or a second termer.
If you want to get worried about long-term stock market valuations, this week’s chart should do the job.
The Nasdaq 100 Index is making new multi-year highs, levels not seen since the weeks just after the 2000 Internet Bubble top. But it is interesting for us to see that the average component stock in that index is down 7% from its trailing 52-week high.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has dropped below 12. Below 12!!! Surely this must be one of the signs of the apocalypse.
Most traders who look at options market data for market insights like to focus on the “Put/Call Volume Ratio”, which examines the differences between the number of trades in bullish versus bearish bets. I use that data in my work, and even get into differences between the Put/Call Ratio for equity options versus index options.
The folks who watch international bond yields have been giving a lot of attention lately to the fact that the spread between the 10-year U.S Treasury Note and the equivalent government bond from Germany is now up to its widest point since 2005.
The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) has been leading the way higher, making higher highs and higher lows all throughout 2013 and into 2014. But it has been doing so with diminishing participation.
The rally in housing stocks that I wrote about last November has been proceeding pretty much according to plan. That’s the good news. The bad news for investors is that lumber prices now say the housing related sector is due for a temporary dip.
In this week’s chart, the role of the entire yield curve is portrayed by the spread between the 10-year T-Note yield and the 3-month T-Bill yield.
The conventional stock market analysis world revolves around earnings. “Earnings drive the stock market,” they say. This myopic view is akin to the belief that carbon dioxide is the driving force behind the greenhouse effect (water vapor actually accounts for 90-95% of it, but you don’t hear that).
A classic technical indicator gave a rare bearish signal for the DJIA with the down move seen in January. The Coppock Curve has turned down. More importantly, it has done so after a second big top, which seems to be the important set of dance steps to mark a major market top. Named for the late Edwin Sedgewick Coppock, his eponymous indicator was …
Which of these statements is true:
1. Gold is still in a downtrend.
2. Gold has broken its downtrend.
Tom McClellan – McClellan Market Report When Dorothy went over the rainbow, she found that everything was backwards. The world had been colorized, munchkins were grateful that it was raining houses, scarecrows could talk, a lion was a fraidy-cat. And there was a wizard who was in charge of the whole place. A new wizard […]
In the Dec. 16, 2013 issue of Forbes magazine, the editors offer their list of “365 Ways To Get Rich” with their 2014 Investment Guide. #100 on the list is this suggestion: “Profit from stock market volatility: Buy into a VIX futures fund and use wild, seemingly irrational swings as buying opportunities.”
Have you ever lived through an earthquake? I grew up in southern California, and lived through the 1971 San Fernando earthquake that fractured the Van Norman dam, knocked down several buildings, and generally caused turmoil. I got to skip school for 3 days after the quake.
By Tom McClellan – McClellan Market Report Back in June 2013, when gold was making its lowest price low since early 2011, I pointed out that commercial gold futures traders were at a really low net short position according to the Commitment of Traders data, and that this was a meaningful sign of a price bottom. […]
There are a lot of different indicators and studies that technical analysts use, and all of those tools came into usage due to some degree of merit. But the one factor which seems to be trumping everything else lately is what the Fed is doing with its QEternity program, which shows no sign of stopping anytime soon, or maybe ever.