More signs of unbalanced Chinese growth

The latest Chinese GDP release came in right in line with expectations at 6.7%, but the growth came at a cost. I had written about this problem in my previous post, Big Trouble with 5-year China?). The Chinese authorities appear to be up to their …

A possible pause in the uptrend

Mid-week market update: Let me make myself absolutely clear, I remain intermediate term bullish on US equities based on the points I made in past remarks (see Equities in a macro sweet spot and The trend is your friend (breadth, seasonality and se…

Equities in a macro sweet spot

Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market ti…

How far can this pullback go?

Mid-week technical update: In my weekend market commentary, I wrote that I was intermediate term bullish on equities (see The trend is your friend (breadth, seasonality and sentiment too)). However, my inner trader was tactically watching the relative …

Updates on the Brexit, energy and SPX trades

Mid-week market update: Rather than the usual mid-week market technical comment, I thought that I would present updates on a number of trades that I had suggested in the past:How to play the Brexit referendum (published February 29, 2016): Se…

The GAAP gap as Rorscbach test

I’ve been meaning to write on this topic but I hadn’t gotten around to it. For several weeks, I have seen warnings about deteriorating earnings quality. The gap between corporate earnings as defined by Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) an…

A shallow pullback?

Mid-week technical update: I wrote on the weekend that I expect that the stock market would continue to rise on an intermediate term basis, but some short-term weakness was likely (see A repeat of the failed Oct/Nov rally of 2015?). What I did not expe…

Big Trouble with 5-Year China?

China’s latest five-year plan seems to be a big hit. What’s more, the most recent growth slowdown is abating, the stock market is recovering, but my indicators are suggesting that, despite all of the glowing rhetoric, the economy is taking a step back …

A repeat of the failed Oct/Nov rally of 2015?

Explaining our market timing modelsWe maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market ti…

The real story behind the Apple-FBI fight

I normally confine my comments to top-down analysis and I normally don`t make my personal opinions on legal and political issues like the current case of Apple vs. the FBI, but a comment by John Oliver makes many of the issues much less black and white…