As this week is a shortened holiday week, this newsletter is a brief commentary. We wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving!
Is The Recent Downtrend Sustainable?
Though major US stock indexes have crossed their de facto 200 days moving averages a while back, recent fluctuation of these index prices has given investors hope that the current downturn is a blip. Unfortunately, last week, stocks retreated again. Naturally, one would want to look at the trends of all risk assets to get some idea on how broad the current downtrend is. Let’s first take a look at the trend scores of the major assets.
REIT has withstood the current downturn
Major asset trends as of 11/16/2018:
|Description||Symbol||1 Week||4 Weeks||52 Weeks||Trend Score|
|US Equity REITs||VNQ||0.24%||3.42%||0.17%||2.07%|
|Mortgage Back Bonds||MBB||0.81%||0.81%||-1.01%||0.19%|
|Total US Bonds||BND||0.41%||0.46%||-1.82%||-0.24%|
|US High Yield Bonds||JNK||-1.51%||-1.68%||-0.62%||-1.21%|
|Emerging Market Stks||VWO||2.96%||3.94%||-9.58%||-3.23%|
|International Developed Stks||VEA||-0.82%||-1.65%||-6.48%||-5.03%|
Surprisingly, REIT (VNQ) has stood out among all of the risk assets: it went against the stock downtrend in the past 4 weeks and actually has a meaningful positive trend score.
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