Long Term Stock Holding Periods For Retirement Investing
In previous newsletter May 8, 2017: Holding Period of Long Term Timing Portfolios, we looked at the holding periods required to achieve average equity like returns. Specifically, we look at the long term holding periods required for both S&P 500 index (i.e. buy and hold S&P 500 index) and a portfolio that utilizes 10-month (200-day) moving average on S&P 500 index total returns (long term timing portfolio similar to P SMA 200d VFINX Total Return Bond As Cash Monthly on Advanced Strategies page or our Tactical Asset Allocation(TAA) portfolios). Let’s look at the table in the newsletter again:
|S&P Rolling 10 Yr||S&P Rolling 15 Yr||S&P Rolling 20 Yr||MA Rolling 10 Yr||MA Rolling 15 Yr||MA Rolling 20 Yr|
From this table, we can say that to achieve the average 9.3% or 9.4% returns in a rolling period and avoid at least negative returns in the period, one should hold S&P 500 for 20 years while for a long term timing portfolio, at least 10-15 years (preferably 15 years). So, in general, a tactical/timing portfolio probably shortens holding period by 5 to 10 years.
But just how significant that the shortened holding period a tactical or timing portfolio has over a buy and hold portfolio in a real practice? Let’s look at this for a retiree’s investments.
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