November 14, 2016: Asset Trends After The Election

by | Nov 15, 2016 | Asset-Allocation, Bonds, Economy, Feature, Gold, Headline, Income, Inv, Investments, IRA, Markets, Mutual-Funds, newsletter, Portfolios, Retirement | 0 comments

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Asset Trends After The Election

What a difference a week makes! The result of the presidential election defied many popular polls and predictions. The post election market behavior was even more surprising. US stocks only experienced a brief overnight loss in the futures market and have made a non-uniform ascent while other assets reacted to the election result negatively. 

A week after the election

The following table shows some of the key major assets’ returns in the last one week:

Asset ETFs performance (as of 11/14/2016):
ETF1 Week
Return*		YTD
Return**		1Yr AR3Yr AR5Yr AR10Yr AR
VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF)2.3%8.6%9.7%8.5%14.1%7.2%
VEA (Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF)0.3%0.1%-1.9%-1.0%5.5% 
VNQ (Vanguard REIT ETF)-0.4%1.2%5.1%9.5%10.3%4.9%
BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF)-1.9%3.1%3.4%3.0%2.1% 
DBC (PowerShares DB Commodity Tracking ETF)-2.0%7.9%-1.4%-17.2%-12.5%-4.6%
VWO (Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF)-3.6%10.0%4.8%-1.8%-0.3%2.4%
GLD (SPDR Gold Shares)-5.9%15.4%12.8%-1.9%-7.6%6.5%
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond)-7.4%3.2%5.5%8.7%3.8%6.7%

Other than the near neutral reaction of the developed market stocks (VEA), US stocks (VTI) are the only major asset that rose strongly. In particular, the long term Treasury bonds (TLT) lost over -7.4% while so called safe haven gold (GLD) also had a great deal of loss. Investors retreated from emerging market stocks as US dollar rose strongly. 

The above market action indicates the initial response to the Trump’s election win is more or less aligned with the his attempt to reverse globalization. Furthermore, it does seem that investors believe the US economy can be decoupled from the rest of the world. 

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