Boost Your Dull Summer Investments
When it comes to investing, there are few stock market anomalies that still can’t be fully accounted for (or explained) by so called ‘efficient market hypothesis’. Though many of them out there are purely noise, strategy like Sell in May and Go Away Seasonal Timing is one of the few that consistently shows its benefits. It’s been said that summer is a unfavorable period to stocks. Or a bit more precisely, from May to the end of October (Holloween day), investors should leave the stock market and only invest in the rest of a year. Surprisingly, it has been found such a simple strategy has performed consistently well, not only in the U.S. markets, but also in 36 other countries (see The Halloween Indicator paper).
The STS Seasonal Timing Using VFINX listed on our Advanced Strategies uses a modified strategy that incorporates a moving average timing (MACD) strategy to time buy and sell of an S&P 500 index fund. Though it hasn’t called for selling stocks and going to cash this year so far, we suspect that the time to do so is getting closer.
However, just like many other strategies, left unsaid is on what to do when your portfolio goes into cash. We have shown several times that using a total bond market index fund such as Vanguard Total Bond Market Index (VBMFX) or a total return bond fund portfolio (such as Schwab Total Return Bond listed on Brokerage Investors page), one can boost returns without incurring much risk. The following are some of these newsletters that show the benefits for several long term timing based portfolios:
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