The Balanced Stock and Long Term Treasury Bond Portfolios
In this newsletter, we continue to explore the role of long term Treasury bonds in portfolio construction. In the previous newsletter April 27, 2015: Long Term Treasury Bond Behavior, we looked at the T-Bond behavior. From that, we see that T-Bond can be extremely volatile. Furthermore, it is worth to bring up the chart shown in that newsletter here again:
The key findings from the above chart are that T-Bond reached post Great Depression low in 1940 and started to rise in 1949 till 1981. Current situation is similar to either 1940 or 1949, depending on whether one thinks we are already at a rising rate environment or the current sub zero rate environment will last another 5-8 years (or less). Between 1940 and 1949, the interest rate has been kept steady. However, one should keep in mind that this period encompasses the World War II period and it is somewhat unusual in that sense.
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