Strategic Portfolios with Managed Volatility
As stock markets are in the midst of a retreat from an extended overvalued state, investors should be prepared for more fluctuation in their portfolios, especially in strategic portfolios. In general, markets tend to retreat in a step wise fashion. In the absence of 1987 one day large drops, stock markets usually experienced a sequence of successive daily losses and then recovered some and then repeat the above pattern. This has been evident in almost all of bear markets or large corrections such as the one in 2000-2002 and 2008-2009.
What is more, stocks tended to undershoot during a severe stress that sometimes might start from some minor bad news and then continued the downward movement when more bad news surfaced.
At the moment, we see a similar situation, though it is no where close to that in 2008. Furthermore, it is still possible that the central banks’ intervention might be able to delay the process. But that is the nature of any investment strategy: no one can predict the future and any investment is bound to ‘fail’ in some occasions. What matters is the average outcome that can be only exhibited in a long period of time.
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