02/22/2011

We are initiating weekly tracking of the nine different styles or subclasses in the US Equity asset class. We use ETFs to represent each sub-class. We track returns over 1, 4, 13, 26, and 52 weeks and aggregate them to get a trend score. We then track the trend score to see the direction of each representative ETF in the subclass. By using an ETF from the same provider, we are attempting to normalize out performance of the ETF over the performance of the subclass.

The trend score is defined as the average of 1,4,13,26 and 52 week total returns (including dividend reinvested).

We note that most of the of the sub-classes are positive as the US bull market continues. We also note that Midcap is dropping in comparison to Smallcap - Midcap has been at the top of the list but is starting to be replaced by Smallcap. Finally we note that the order within a sub-class is Growth, Index (Blend), Value.

Although the entire top three dropped compared to the prior week, the smalcaps dropped less than the midcap stock. The continuing bull market is moving investors away from the relative safety of large cap to the small cap stocks. The midcap, which had been a nice midway point, is being supplanted by the smallcap options as investors seek to maximize returns.

The large cap stocks are solidly at the bottom of the table as investors look for higher returns. We note that the Largecap Value has the best performance in the short term even though it has had the poorest return over the longer time horizon.

We would expect to see this picture to remain for some time unless the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa causes investors to look for safer US equities.

Symbols:VCR,VDC,VIG,VWO,VDE,VEA,VGK,EDV,VFH,VEU,VSS,VUG,VHT,VYM,VIS,VGT,BIV,VCIT,BLV,VCLT,VGLT,VAW,MGC,MGK,MGV,VO,VOT,VOE,VMBS,VPL,VNQ,BSV,VGSH,VB,VBK,VBR,VOX,BND,VTI,VT,VPU,VTV,IJK,VBK,QQQQ,MDY,IWO,IJT,IJH,VB,VXF,IWP,IJR,VO,VOT,IWR,IJJ,VBR,IJS,IWN,RSP,IWM,IWS,VOE,VTV,IWC,SCHA,VTI,DIA,VUG,IWF,SPY,IWB,SDY,IVW,VIG,IVV,IWD,OEF,IVE,DVY,