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Articles on UPS

  • UPS, Fedex Square off in Retirement Plans

    04/19/2011

    The combination of a robust U.S. equity market and the proliferation of company-sponsored retirement plans helped push total assets in 401(k) pans over the $3 trillion threshold at close of last year, up 13% from 2009. The incidents in Japan, the Middle East and even as far back as New Orleans teach us the danger of living on borrowed time, the reactors, the governments the levees keeping things going -- just one more year. The temptation to delay until next time is very seductive until disaster strikes and the cost to repair, dwarfs the cost to prevent. Many working people put off their retirement investing -- just one more year until it becomes a "hair on fire" problem -- which it now is for baby boomers for whom retirement is a near and present danger.

    The starting point for any retirement investing is the company provided retirement plan. Not all plans are created equal. Not all plans have the same number of choices, asset classes, quality of funds and, most importantly, risk adjusted returns.

    The list of minor asset classes covered by UPS Savings Plan The list of minor asset classes covered by Federal Express (FedEx) 401K Plan for Pilots
    Emerging Markets Bond: BAEDX
    Foreign Large Blend: EFA
    Inflation-protected Bond: BPRAX
    Intermediate-term Bond: SSINX, SBMRX
    Large Blend: SVSPX
    Mid-cap Blend: MDY
    Real Estate: VGSIX
    Retirement Income: VTINX
    Small Blend: IWM
    Target Date 2000-2010: VTENX
    Target Date 2011-2015: VTXVX
    Target Date 2016-2020: VTWNX
    Target Date 2021-2025: VTTVX
    Target Date 2026-2030: VTHRX
    Target Date 2031-2035: VTTHX
    Target Date 2036-2040: VFORX
    Target Date 2041-2045: VTIVX
    Target Date 2050+: VFIFX
    Conservative Allocation: VSCGX
    Foreign Large Blend: VGTSX
    Foreign Large Value: VTRIX
    Inflation-protected Bond: VIPSX
    Intermediate-term Bond: VBTIX
    Large Blend: VIFSX
    Large Value: VWNDX
    Mid-cap Blend: VEMSX, VMISX
    Moderate Allocation: VWELX, VSMGX
    Retirement Income: VTINX
    Small Blend: VSISX
    Target Date 2000-2010: VTENX, VTOVX
    Target Date 2011-2015: VTXVX
    Target Date 2016-2020: VTWNX
    Target Date 2021-2025: VTTVX
    Target Date 2026-2030: VTHRX
    Target Date 2031-2035: VTTHX
    Target Date 2036-2040: VFORX
    Target Date 2041-2045: VTIVX
    Target Date 2050+: VFIFX

     

    Asset Class UPS Savings Plan Federal Express (FedEx) 401K Plan for Pilots
    REITs 1 0
    Balanced Fund 10 14
    Fixed Income 4 2
    Sector Fund 0 0
    Foreign Equity 1 2
    US Equity 3 5
    Other 0
    0
    Total 19 23

     

    Fedex has more funds but have one less asset class -- UPS has REITs and Fedex does not. Neither company provides Emerging Markets or Commodity funds.

    Both companies have a wide choice of Target Date funds which may appeal to some but are expensive and have mixed reviews as to their value for money.

    It is interesting that UPS has emerging market bonds but no emerging ma
    There are easy ways to improve these plans with emerging market and commodity exposure.

    As of Apr 18, 2011, UPS Savings Plan investment choice is rated as average and Federal Express (FedEx) 401K Plan for Pilots investment choice is rated as below average based on MyPlanIQ Plan Rating methodology that was designed to measure how effective a plan's available investment funds are . It has the following detailed ratings:

    Attribute UPS Savings Plan Federal Express (FedEx) 401K Plan for Pilots
    Diversification above average (85%) below average (13%)
    Fund Quality below average (21%) average (47%)
    Portfolio Building above average (66%) below average (31%)
    Overall Rating average (58%) below average (31%)

     


    Performance chart (as of Apr 18, 2011)

    Performance table (as of Apr 18, 2011)

    Portfolio Name 1Yr AR 1Yr Sharpe 3Yr AR 3Yr Sharpe 5Yr AR 5Yr Sharpe
    UPS Savings Plan Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 10% 77% 10% 102% 10% 98%
    UPS Savings Plan Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 7% 55% 1% 9% 3% 11%
    Federal Express 401K Plan Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 4% 39% 7% 73% 7% 69%
    Federal Express 401K Plan Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 8% 87% 4% 36% 6% 41%
    Six Core Asset ETF Benchmark Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 10% 71% 9% 73% 13% 91%
    Six Core Asset ETF Benchmark Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 13% 103% 3% 20% 7% 35%


    Currently Commodities, Real Estate and US Equity are doing well. US Equity and Real Estate available to UPS Savings Plan participants Only US Equities are available to FedEx participants.

    When we add the six asset class SIB benchmark to the table, it is possible to see how the two compare against a reference.

    Takeaways

    • The UPS plan with its extra asset class has a three point lead over the FedEx plan when comparing tactical asset allocation
    • The Six asset class benchmark has a three point lead over the UPS plan when comparing tactical asset allocation
    • The FedEx plan without the recent burden of the Real Estate crash beats UPS when comparing strategic asset allocation
    • The Six asset class benchmark beats the FedEx plan over five years where emerging markets and commodities offset the drag of real estatewhen comparing strategic asset allocation


    With either plan, augmenting a retirement portfolio with emerging market equities and commodities will provide better diversification and likely higher risk adjusted returns. As inflation seems like a near certainty, commodity exposure becomes increasingly important.


    Disclosure:

    MyPlanIQ does not have any business relationship with the company or companies mentioned in this article. It does not set up their retirement plans. The performance data of portfolios mentioned above are obtained through historical simulation and are hypothetical.

    Symbols: UPS, FDX, BAEDX, EFA, BPRAX, SSINX, SBMRX, SVSPX, MDY, VGSIX, VTINX, IWM, VGTSX, VTRIX, VIPSX, VBTIX, VIFSX, VWNDX, VEMSX, VMISX, VWELX, VSMGX, VTINX, VSISX, AGG, BND, VTI, VNQ, IYR, DBC, VWO, EEM, EFA


    Exchange Tickers: (UPS), (FDX), (BAEDX), (EFA), (BPRAX ), (SSINX), (SBMRX), (SVSPX), (MDY), (VGSIX), (VTINX), (IWM), (VGTSX), (VTRIX), (VIPSX), (VBTIX), (VIFSX), (VWNDX), (VEMSX), (VMISX), (VWELX), (VSMGX), (VTINX), (VSISX), (AGG), (BND), (VTI), (VNQ), (IYR), (DBC), (VWO), (EEM), (EFA)

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  • SmartMoney Magazine Best Idea Portfolio Compared with a Diversified ETF Portfolio

    04/13/2011

    SmartMoney magazine published its annual best stock ideas in the February issue titled Where to Invest in 2011. We look at a portfolio that consists of the 12 stocks suggested in the article and compare this with an ETF portfolio.

    We construct the portfolio "P SmartMoney Magazine Where to Invest 2011 12 Stocks Since 2011" that had equal weights to each of 12 stocks on 12/31/2010. The following is the list of stocks recommended by SmartMoney Magazine and their weightings on 4/8/2011:

    Asset Fund in this portfolio Price Percentage
    Asset1 LOW (Lowe's Companies Inc.)
    26.82 6.33%
    Asset1 TJX (The TJX Companies, Inc.)
    50.7 13.33%
    Asset1 YUM (Yum! Brands Inc.)
    49.58 10.98%
    Asset1 CMCSA (Comcast Corporation)
    24.68 6.35%
    Asset1 RSG (Republic Services)
    29.91 7.08%
    Asset1 PEP (PepsiCo Inc)
    65.73 7.36%
    Asset1 CSCO (Cisco Systems Inc)
    17.65 4.57%
    Asset1 GOOG (Google Inc)
    578.16 7.97%
    Asset1 ORCL (Oracle Corp.)
    33.54 12.29%
    Asset1 UTX (United Technologies)
    84.81 8.66%
    Asset1 MMM (3M Company)
    93.22 7.79%
    Asset1 UPS (United Parcel Serv)
    73.25 7.29%

    We further construct a portfolio P SmartMoney Magazine Where to Invest 2011 12 Stocks that was started on 1/2/2006.

    Buying individual stocks and managing a portfolio with a dozen of stocks is not a small feat: one has to constantly monitor stocks in the portfolio and buy/sell them if it is necessary (such as a fundamental event for a company indicates this company is no longer satisfied with the criteria, or a stock becomes too expensive, or just simply because there is a better more compelling stock available, etc.). In fact, various studies have shown that most professional mutual funds can not even beat a stock index.

    On the other hand, an investor can choose a simpler and safer portfolio strategy: asset allocation, especially tactical asset allocation strategy by investing in ETFs or mutual funds. In the case of a tactical asset allocation strategy, it dynamically adjusts the weights of assets represented by ETFs. For example, MyPlanIQ's Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) strategy adjusts exposure to various assets based on price momentum as well as risk parameters (such as volatility and drawdown).

    The following is the list of six assets that represent the major markets:

    Asset Class Ticker Name
    LARGE BLEND VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
    Foreign Large Blend VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF
    DIVERSIFIED EMERGING MKTS VWO Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock ETF
    REAL ESTATE VNQ Vanguard REIT Index ETF
    COMMODITIES BROAD BASKET DBC PowerShares DB Commodity Idx Trking Fund
    Intermediate-Term Bond BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF

    Other than the fixed income fund (BND), all other five assets are considered as risk assets.

    The following compares the performance between P SmartMoney Magazine Where to Invest 2011 12 Stocks and a portfolio with risk profile 0 (i.e. can have 100% invested in the risk assets)  Six Core Asset ETF Benchmark TAA Risk Profile 0

    Portfolio Performance Comparison

    Portfolio Name 1Yr AR 1Yr Sharpe 3Yr AR 3Yr Sharpe 5Yr AR 5Yr Sharpe
    P SmartMoney Magazine Where to Invest 2011 12 Stocks
    13% 75% 8% 28% 6% 20%
    Six Core Asset ETF Benchmark TAA Risk Profile 0
    19% 91% 16% 81% 20% 95%

    The following chart illustrates the performance comparison:

    We make the following observations:

    1. The SmartMoney 12 stocks were recommended in Februrary 2011. The portfolio P SmartMoney Magazine Where to Invest 2011 12 Stocks was started on 1/2/2006. It is not exactly a fair comparison: most likely, these stocks were recommended based on their past performance and thus, the portfolio's performance could be more over-estimated.
    2. It is not exactly fair to compare an U.S. stock portfolio with a diversified portfolio that can invest in foreign stocks, emerging market stocks, REITs and even commodities. One reason behind this is that for most individual investors, they tend to focus on only domestic stocks. We will have a follow up article to compare this portfolio with an U.S. stock ETF portfolio.
    3. The above illustrates that there are simpler and better way to invest other than picking individual stocks. This is applicable to most average investors. Nevertheless, we acknowledge that few investors do have the possibility to achieve high returns with their systematic method and great insights. It is just for many average investors, they do not have time, means and discipline to do so. This is reflected that majority of professional investors under perform against a stock index such as S&P 500 (SPY).

    Symbols: VTI, VEU, VNQ, VWO, DBC, BND, LOW, TJX, YUM, CMCSA, RSG, PEP, CSCO, GOOG, ORCL, UTX, MMM, UPS, EEM

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  • JPMorgan Chase -- Top Tier Company -- Second Tier Retirement Plan

    01/15/2011

    We have examined the retirement plans of two of the major players in shipping and logistics. UPS  has a four asset class plan and Fedex has a three asset class plan.

    We now compare them side by side and see how the different attributes of the plans lead to different results.

    The funds line up


    Asset ClassUPSFedex
    Balanced Fund 10 14
    REITs 1  
    Fixed Income 4 2
    Commodity 0  
    Sector Fund 0  
    Foreign Equity 1 2
    Emerging Market Equity 0  
    US Equity 3 5
    Other 3  
    Total 22 23


    Both companies offer a large number of balanced funds that include target date funds. UPS has a better selection of fixed income but FEDEX has more choices in international and US Equities.

    In general, both would do better to have more choices in each of their funds. One choice in REIT and foreign equity for UPS is low.

    Rating Attribute

    UPS

    Fedex

    Diversification

    84%

    15%

    Fund Quality

    24%

    43%

    Portfolio Building

    73%

    40%

    Overall Rating

    62%

    33%

     
    We note that UPS gets much higher marks for having the extra asset class. UPS has an emerging market bond fund which provides additional exposure in bonds which further boosts its rating. Fedex does not score highly.

    Fedex does beat out UPs in fund quality but with a better choice of funds, UPS gives a better portfolio mix.

    The result is that the UPS plan scores more highly than the FEDEX plan.

    We now line up returns performance for the last five years and see how this plays out.


    Performance chart (as of Jan 11, 2011)

    Performance table (as of Jan 11, 2011)

    Portfolio Name1Yr AR1Yr Sharpe3Yr AR3Yr Sharpe5Yr AR5Yr Sharpe
    UPS Savings Plan Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 15% 105% 9% 93% 10% 91%
    UPS Savings Plan Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 8% 64% 1% 5% 3% 7%
    Federal Express (FedEx) 401K Plan for Pilots Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 6% 51% 6% 68% 7% 65%
    Federal Express (FedEx) 401K Plan for Pilots Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 9% 91% 4% 25% 5% 36%

    Currently US Equity, Commodities and Real Estate are doing well. US Equity and Real Estate available to UPS Savings Plan participants whereas only US Equity is available to the Fedex participants,

    We note the behavior of the FEDEX plan is consistent with the majority of plans we have analyzed: The one year returns for SAA beat out the TAA performance. The strong US and other equity markets created a bull market and SAA will usually outperform in those circumstances. Over the longer term where there are a mix of favorable and unfavorable conditions, TAA limits losses which compensates for the reduced upside.

    The UPS plan, with its larger number of asset classes should, in theory, give better returns -- which it does in TAA but not in SAA and this is worth some explanation.

    For the one year returns

    • The tactical asset allocation was able to provide better returns by virtue of having a range of bond and balanced funds which provided some upside to the rather dismal bond behavior
    • TAA was able to take advantage of moving in and out of US equities when they fell back in the middle of the year
    • TAA didn't have positions in international equity until late in the year
    • The SAA had to take the US and international equities hit and had nothing to offset the gain
    • Real estate was a constant factor for both 

    When we look over the longer term horizon, we note that while the four asset TAA strategy is at the top, the four asset class SAA comes below the three asset class SAA.

    The reason for this is that the real estate asset class was hammered over the last five years and has significantly hampered performance. The TAA strategy avoided much of the loss by moving out of equities all together.

    The Fedex plan, while suffering the drop in US and international equities, did not have the real estate asset class and so was hit slightly less.

    In the longer term, as real estate continues to recover and uncorrelated asset classes return to more normal behavior, we expect the standard patter to re-emerge. However, it is caveat emptor -- let the buyer be informed!


    Takeaway
    • 2007 to date has given us unprecedented financial markets that have challenged conventional wisdom and stressed assumptions for investment plans
    • There are special cases where strategies perform in a counter-intuitive manner
    • It's critical not to be caught up in the  exuberance of the last year and especially the last quarter and forget the gut wrenching days that so quickly fade
    • It is critical to understand your asset class choices and the risk and reward they offer.

    labels; investment
    Symbols:UPS,FDX,SPY,VTI,EFA,VEU,EEM,VWO,AGG,BND,HYG,JNK,PHB,AOM,CIU,BIV,MTK,PTF,RYT,ROM,GWL,PFA,IVE,IWW,JKF,VTV,PWV,RPV,SCHV,EFV,PID,DWM,IVV,IYY,IWV,VV,DLN,RSP,SCHX,IVW,IWZ,JKE,VUG,QQQQ,RPG,SCHG,IJJ,IWS,JKI,VOE,PWP,RFV,UVU,IJH,IWR,JKG,VO,MDY,EMM,PJG,DON,EZM,MVV,


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