 |
Vanguard ETF: |  |
7.4%* |
|
Diversified Core: | |
8.1%* |
|
Six Core Asset ETFs: | |
7.3%* |
Articles on SHV
- Countries All Drop -- India significantly, Japan only a little
11/16/2010
MyPlanIQ tracks detailed weekly country economic trend movement. We use ETFs that represent each geographic region and present the results here.
This is the second week of coverage and with QE2 and G20 meetings behind us. Each sovereign nation will deal with their own challenges as they react changes on the international stage.
More details are available on the MyPlanIQ website.
The largest industrial nations are meeting in Seoul this week and one of the topics on the agenda is rebalancing global growth.Nation
Symbol
15-Nov Trend Score
Direction
8-Nov Trend Score
Hong Kong
EWH
16%
v
21%
South Africa
EZA
14%
v
20%
Singapore
EWS
13%
v
18%
India
INP
12%
v
24%
Mexico
EWW
12%
v
16%
Malaysia
EWM
11%
v
16%
South Korea
EWY
10%
v
15%
Germany
EWG
8%
v
13%
Taiwan
EWT
8%
v
13%
United Kingdom
EWU
8%
v
12%
Russia
RSX
7%
v
15%
Canada
EWC
7%
v
11%
Australia
EWA
7%
v
15%
China
FXI
6%
v
12%
Switzerland
EWL
6%
v
12%
Belgium
EWK
5%
v
11%
Austria
EWO
5%
v
11%
Brazil
EWZ
5%
v
12%
France
EWQ
4%
v
10%
Japan
EWJ
4%
v
4%
The Netherlands
EWN
4%
v
9%
Italy
EWI
1%
v
5%
Spain
EWP
-1%
v
1%
India and Russia see the biggest change with India dropping out of the top three.
With the exception of India, the top of the group behave in a similar way as the markets pulled back in the second half of the week.
India will be one to watch to see if it bounces back next week.
The countries at the bottom of the list also reacted in a cluster dropping around 4% with the exception of Japan that has a much more muted response.
Clearly the last week has been a challenging one and we will have to watch which ones rebound and to what extent.labels:investment,
Symbols:INP,EZA,EWS,EWH,EWW,EWM,EWY,RSX,EWA,EWT,EWC,EWZ,EWL,EWG,EWU,FXI,EWK,EWN,EWJ,EWQ,EWO,EWI,EWP,SPY,QQQQ,IWM,MDY,EFA,VEU,EEM,VWO,IYR,ICF,VNQ,GSG,DBC,DBA,USO,LQD,CSJ,CIU,HYG,JNK,PHB,TLT,IEF,SHY,SHV,BND,AGG,MUB,MBB,
- ETF Based Major Asset Class Trend Indicators For The Week of November 15
11/15/2010
Last week, MyPlanIQ initiated tracking major asset classes trend movement. These asset trends provide insights into underlying economic and market segments and are critical to tactical asset allocation strategies. We use ETFs that represent the asset class indices. For more information, please visit MyPlanIQ 360 Degree Market View.
Now that the QE2 initiative is "old news", some of the bullishness has also evaporated. Without further policy initiatives or data showing strength in the economy, there will be concern that Wall Street's rally may be running out of fuel.However, a week of positive data could give investors hard evidence to justify a rally that lifted the S&P 500 ~ 17% from the August 31 close to the 2010 closing high hit November 5.
There are some concerning signson the horizon and last week the major US indices all lost over 2%. This is reflected in the major asset class trend indicators which are all down even if the relative rankings are largely unchanged.
Description
Symbol
15-Nov Trend Score
Direction
8-Nov Trend Score
Frontier Market Stks
FRN
13%
v
20%
US Equity REITs
VNQ
9%
v
18%
Emerging Market Stks
VWO
9%
v
16%
Gold
GLD
9%
v
13%
International REITs
RWX
8%
v
15%
US Stocks
VTI
7%
v
10%
International Developed Stks
EFA
6%
v
9%
US High Yield Bonds
JNK
5%
v
8%
Commodities
GSG
5%
v
7%
Emerging Mkt Bonds
PCY
5%
v
9%
Intermediate Treasuries
IEF
3%
v
5%
International Treasury Bonds
BWX
3%
v
6%
US Credit Bonds
CFT
2%
v
4%
Mortgage Back Bonds
MBB
1%
v
2%
Total US Bonds
BND
1%
v
2%
Treasury Bills
SHV
0%
v
0%
Municipal Bonds
MUB
-1%
v
2%
Top Five Indicators
Emerging markets are going to react to the US market fluctuations and real estate is still edgy as it was a major cause of the current crisis. Gold is also down but much more heavily damped as it will continue to have strength based on inherent value and as currencies are under pressure.
Bottom Five Indicators
The bonds see some depression but are less volatile than the top asset classes.
In conclusion, the excitement from QE2 is over and we will see whether this down trend continues and we see a reversal towards more fixed income asset classes being desirable.labels:investment,
Symbols:EEM,VNQ,FRN,VWO,IYR,ICF,GLD,RWX,VTI,SPY,IWM,PCY,EMB,JNK,HYG,PHB,EFA,VEU,IEF,TLT,GSG,DBC,DBA,CFT,BWX,MBB,BND,MUB,SHV,AGG,
- ETF Based Bond Trend Indicators For The Week of November 15
11/15/2010
Fixed income is a key asset class categories in portfolio building. The main risks are represented by long/intermediate/short maturity bonds and high yield (junk), credit bonds. These indices provide important insight into debt market conditions that are key to asset allocation strategies. MyPlanIQ tracks detailed weekly bond trend movement. We use ETFs that represent the bond classes. For more information, please visit MyPlanIQ 360 Degree Market View.
The Federal Reserve's low rate policy has driven down bond yields to historical low. The Fed's QE2 announced last week showed Fed's committed action to maintain a long period of low rates to stimulate the economy. Investors should take a note on the 20+ year treasury bonds that has had trouble recently: reflecting a belief that eventually, Fed's action will result in much higher inflation. International fixed income bonds are rising because of the US dollar weakness.
Description
Symbol
15-Nov Trend Score
Direction
8-Nov Trend Score
High Yield
JNK
5%
v
8%
Emerging Mkt Bonds
PCY
5%
v
9%
International Inflation Protected
WIP
4%
v
7%
Intermediate Treasury
IEF
3%
v
5%
International Treasury
BWX
3%
v
6%
Long Term Credit
LQD
3%
v
5%
Intermediate Term Credit
CIU
3%
v
4%
Inflation Protected
TIP
2%
v
4%
10-20Year Treasury
TLH
2%
v
4%
MBS Bond
MBB
1%
v
2%
US Total Bond
BND
1%
v
2%
Short Term Credit
CSJ
1%
v
1%
Short Term Treasury
SHY
0%
v
1%
Treasury Bills
SHV
0%
v
0%
New York Muni
NYF
0%
v
2%
20+ Year Treasury
TLT
-1%
v
1%
National Muni
MUB
-1%
v
2%
California Muni
CMF
-1%
v
1%
Top Five Indicators
There is weakness across the board without any indication of what is
Bottom Five Indicators
The worst performers are treasury bonds, especially in the 20+ year ones. Again, it is telling that investors definitely have a negative outlook in a long term for fixed income. Other bottom performers all have less risky nature, reflecting investors' chase for high yields and increasing risk appetite.
In conclusion, bonds in general continue to do well. Investors should keep an eye on such euphoria outlook and watch carefully on the possible turn that eventually will happen: exceptional low rates have to come with a price and can only sustain for so long.labels:investment,
Symbols:AGG,BND,SHV,SHY,IEF,TLH,TLT,TIP,WIP,HYG,JNK,PHB,CSJ,CIU,LQD,BWX,CMF,NYF,MUB,MBB,PCY,EMB,
- United Airlines Upgrades their 401K Plan
11/13/2010
We recently published a summary of the United Airlines 401K plan. Subsequent to this, United Airlines informed us that they have upgraded their plan in October 2010 and we now review the new plan.
The upgraded plan has 21 funds --little changed in number. These funds enable participants to gain exposure to 3 major assets: US Equity, Foreign Equity, Fixed Income -- again the same as the last plan.We will compare the old and new funds as they both have similar composition.
Asset Class New Plan Old Plan U.S. Equity Excluding Company Stock 6 6 International Equity 2 2 Balanced Funds 3 4 Fixed Income 4 3 Target Date 5 6
As of Nov 11, 2010, the new plan's investment choice is rated as above average based on MyPlanIQ Plan Rating methodology that was designed to measure how effective a plan's available investment funds are.Plan Rating Attribute New Plan Old Plan Diversification 77% 43% Fund Quality 86% 20% Portfolio Building 76% 42% Overall Rating 79% 35%
This is a significant jump across the board without introducing a lot more funds. The key reasons for the improvement are:- US and international equities have large, medium and small cap alternatives whereas previously it was just large cap stock
- The fixed income choices are higher quality
This should be a well performing three asset class plan.
Performance chart (as of Nov 10, 2010)
Performance table (as of Nov 10, 2010)
Portfolio Name 1Yr AR 1Yr Sharpe 3Yr AR 3Yr Sharpe 5Yr AR 5Yr Sharpe United Airlines Flight Attendant 401(k) Plan Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 6% 53% 6% 67% 9% 92% United Airlines Flight Attendant 401(k) Plan Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 8% 89% 0% -0% 5% 29% United Airline 401K Plan 2010 Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 8% 92% 6% 78% 10% 114% United Airline 401K Plan 2010 Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 12% 123% 3% 23% 8% 57%
If we now compare this to the Kellogg plan as we did in the last article:
Performance chart (as of Nov 11, 2010)Performance table (as of Nov 11, 2010)
Portfolio Name 1Yr AR 1Yr Sharpe 3Yr AR 3Yr Sharpe 5Yr AR 5Yr Sharpe United Airline 401K Plan 2010 Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 8% 92% 6% 78% 10% 114% United Airline 401K Plan 2010 Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 12% 123% 3% 23% 8% 57% Kellogg 401k Plan Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 2% 19% 4% 45% 8% 72% Kellogg 401k Plan Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 13% 100% 3% 16% 8% 43% We can see that the United Plan now nudges ahead of the Kellog plan in terms of risk adjusted returns over the last five years.
Kudos to United in recognizing that their 401K plan needed to be improved and providing a free upgrade for its employees.
labels:investment,
Symbols:AGG,AOK,AOM,BIV,BND,CIU,DLN,DRF,EFA,ELG,ELV,GWL,IEI,IPF,ITE,IVE,IVV,IVW,IWV,IWW,IWZ,IYF,IYY,JKE,JKF,K,PFA,PFI,PLK,PWV,QQQQ,RPG,RPV,RSP,RYF,SCHG,SCHV,SCHX,SHV,SHY,SPY,TZD,TZE,TZI,TZO,UAUA,USY,VEU,VFH,VGIT,VGSH,VTI,VTV,VUG,VV,
- ETFs Provide Insight Into U.S. Sectors' Performance
11/12/2010
US sectors provide insight into the parts of the US economy that are flourishing or floundering. We are tracking the ETFs that represent ten different financial sectors.
More details are available on the MyPlanIQ website.
Description
Symbol
8-Nov Trend Score
Direction
Consumer Discretionary
(XLY)
14%
Week 1
Materials
(XLB)
13%
Week 1
Telecom
(IYZ)
13%
Week 1
Technology
(XLK)
12%
Week 1
Industries
(XLI)
11%
Week 1
Energy
(XLE)
10%
Week 1
Consumer Staples
(XLP)
7%
Week 1
Utilities
(XLU)
7%
Week 1
Financial
(XLF)
6%
Week 1
Healthcare
(XLV)
6%
Week 1
click to enlarge
We are entering the holiday period with the QE2 wind at our backs. This is going to increase consumer confidence and consumer spending.
The materials and commodity sectors have jumped due to a weak dollar, which the QE2 program exacerbates. It is also likely to stimulate demand for materials further pushing up the price.
The telecom sector includes wireless phone providers and they will likely do well through the holiday period with the increasing success of smart phones.
With the Republican victory in the House, some analysts are talking a lot these days about utilities stocks -- the reason being that the sector may benefit from the higher likelihood that the 15% tax rate on dividends will be extended.
The financial sector is still recovering from its meltdown and will continue to be under pressure with continuing concerns with mortgage stability and general fragility.
Healthcare's overall performance has been under pressure in this economic environment. Despite a substantial portion of their products being required for survival, sales remain sluggish. As a result, a wave of consolidation has gobbled up mid-cap companies with new products.
Some of these sectors will peak in the holiday season while others will settle over a longer time period as the political and economic climate evolves.
labels:investment,
Symbols:AGG,BND,CIU,CSJ,DBA,DBC,EEM,EFA,GSG,HYG,ICF,IEF,IWM,IYR,IYZ,JNK,LQD,MBB,MDY,MUB,PHB,QQQQ,SHV,SHY,SPY,TLT,USO,VEU,VNQ,VWO,XLB,XLE,XLF,XLI,XLK,XLP,XLU,XLV,XLY,
- United Airlines 401K Flies Above the ETF Benchmark, But Below Kellogg
11/12/2010
- International ETF's Give Insight on Global Economies
11/10/2010
- ETF Based Major Asset Class Trend Indicators For The Week of November 8
11/08/2010
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10/19/2010
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10/19/2010
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- ALLERGAN, INC. SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT PLAN Report On 12/03/2010
12/03/2010
This report reviews ALLERGAN, INC. SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT PLAN plan. We will discuss the investment choices and present the plan rating by MyPlanIQ. Current economic and market conditions are discussed in the context of the investment portfolios in the plan. We will then show how participants in ALLERGAN, INC. SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT PLAN can achieve reasonable investment results using asset allocation strategies.
Plan Review and Rating
ALLERGAN, INC. SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT PLAN's 401K plan consists of 13 funds. These funds enable participants to gain exposure to 3 major assets: US Equity, Foreign Equity, Fixed Income. The list of minor asset classes covered:
Foreign Large Blend: EFA, VEU, GWL, PFA
Intermediate-term Bond: AGG, CIU, BIV, BND
Large Blend: IVV, IYY, IWV, VTI, VV, SPY, DLN, RSP, SCHX
Large Growth: IVW, IWZ, JKE, VUG, ELG, QQQQ, RPG, SCHG
Large Value: IVE, IWW, JKF, VTV, ELV, PWV, RPV, SCHV
Moderate Allocation: AOM
Short Government: SHY, SHV, VGSH, PLK, USY
Small Blend: IJR, IWM, JKJ, VB, DSC, PJM, DES, SAA, UWM, SCHA
Small Growth: IJT, IWO, JKK, VBK, DSG, PWT, RZG, UKK
Small Value: IJS, IWN, JKL, VBR, DSV, PWY, RZV, UVT
World Stock: IOO, VT
As of Dec 2, 2010, this plan investment choice is rated as based on MyPlanIQ Plan Rating methodology that measures the effectiveness of a plan's available investment funds. It has the following detailed ratings:
Diversification -- Rated as (21%)
Fund Quality -- Rated as (16%)
Portfolio Building -- Rated as (31%)
Overall Rating: (24%)Current Economic and Market Conditions
We have experienced an uncertain 2010: plenty of worries on whether the US economy will climb out of the great recession and recover.
- The Federal Reserve embarked on Quantitative Easing II (QE2) to stimulate the economy.
- The housing market is still at its low but largely stabilized.
- The unemployment rate is stuck at 9%.
Americans continue to face an uncertain future, given (among others) the high unemployment rate, large federal and local government debts and global trade imbalance. With such an economic backdrop, the stock and debt markets are going to be volatile. Despite this, markets have been resilient and appear positioned to rebound.
In this market it is even more critical to properly diversify and respond market changes. MyPlanIQ offers two asset allocation strategies: strategic and tactical asset allocation strategies ( SAA and TAA for participants in ALLERGAN, INC. SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT PLAN).
Strategic Asset Allocation is based on well known modern portfolio theory and its key features include: diversification, proper fund selection and periodically re-balancing.
Tactical Asset Allocation works on a diversified array of assets provided by funds in a plan and adjusts asset mixes based on market conditions such as asset price momentum utilized by TAA.
Portfolio Discussions
The chart and table below show the historical performance of moderate model portfolios employing strategic and tactical asset allocation strategies. For comparison purpose, we also include the moderate model portfolios of a typical 3 asset SIB (Simpler Is Better) plan . This SIB plan has the following candidate index funds and their ETFs equivalent:
US Equity: (SPY or VTI)
Foreign Equity: (EFA or VEU)
Fixed Income: (AGG or BND)
Performance chart (as of Dec 2, 2010)Performance table (as of Dec 2, 2010)
Portfolio Name 1Yr AR 1Yr Sharpe 3Yr AR 3Yr Sharpe 5Yr AR 5Yr Sharpe ALLERGAN, INC. SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT PLAN Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate 7% 61% 6% 65% 7% 69% ALLERGAN, INC. SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT PLAN Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 12% 118% 2% 8% 5% 29% Three Core Asset ETF Index Funds Tactical Asset Allocation Moderate -4% -35% 1% 9% 4% 27% Three Core Asset ETF Index Funds Strategic Asset Allocation Moderate 9% 60% -0% -3% 4% 13% Currently, asset classes in US Equity (SPY,VTI), Foreign Equity (EFA,VEU) and Fixed Income (AGG,BND) are doing relatively well. These asset classes are available to ALLERGAN, INC. SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT PLAN participants.
To summarize, ALLERGAN, INC. SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT PLAN plan participants can achieve reasonable investment returns by adopting asset allocation strategies that are tailored to their risk profiles.
Symbols: AGN , SPY , VTI , EFA , VEU , AGG , BND , AOM , CIU , BIV , GWL , PFA , IVE , IWW , JKF , VTV , ELV , PWV , RPV , SCHV , IVV , IYY , IWV , VV , DLN , RSP , SCHX , IOO , VT , SHY , SHV , VGSH , PLK , USY , IVW , IWZ , JKE , VUG , ELG , QQQQ , RPG , SCHG , IJS , IWN , JKL , VBR , DSV , PWY , RZV , UVT , IJR , IWM , JKJ , VB , DSC , PJM , DES , SAA , UWM , SCHA , IJT , IWO , JKK , VBK , DSG , PWT , RZG , UKK
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